For Knicks, Draft Is First Step in Long Climb

For everybody except Boston Celtics fans, the NBA Finals are drifting off into memory, and it’s time to focus on the draft. Not much has changed for the Knicks since the late rounds of the playoffs took center stage: The team is still picking sixth in a draft that contains only four surefire talents who could make an immediate impact on this team.That means the new team president, Donnie Walsh, and new coach Mike D’Antoni have their hands full. They will need to sit tight until draft night to see if any of the top players — guards Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayliss, and O.J. Mayo, or forward Michael Beasley — slip to them. In the likely event that one doesn’t, they should trade the pick, as the next-most desirable players for the Knicks may be available later in the draft. Trading a pick will give them a chance to rid themselves of a millstone contract, and possibly even grab up more picks.No matter what player the Knicks draft and where they draft him, the most important thing will be managing expectations. Whoever is selected, that player will be the first added to the roster by the new regime, and it will be difficult not to see the guy as the start of a new era. True as that may be, the Knicks’ first-round draft pick is only going to be the first small step on a very long road to bring this team back to respectability. Not even drafting Michael Jordan circa 1983 would elevate this team to .500 in a single season.Think I’m being harsh? Take a look at the records of nearly surefire future Hall of Famers in their rookie season. Jordan lifted the Bulls from 27-55 to 38-44 — an impressive feat, but hey, that’s still a team that was under .500. It took a few more productive drafts to get the Bulls into contention. Patrick Ewing would probably like to forget his first few seasons with the Knicks: The team went 23-59 (a sadly familiar ledger). It wasn’t until a coaching change and some important additions via future drafts (most notably point guard Mark Jackson) that the Knicks became memorable for the right reasons.Don’t write their experiences off as ancient history, though. LeBron James helped the Cleveland Cavaliers double their win total, but still left them at 35-47, and that was on a team that included future All-Star Carlos Boozer at power forward.What I’m getting at is that most lottery teams need more than a one Hall of Fame-bound player to get out of the losing column, and no one projects Rose, Beasley, Mayo, or Bayliss to be a certain future Hall of Famer. Therefore, managing expectations will be a key task for Walsh and D’Antoni after Thursday night’s draft.If the Knicks trade down, they will be in good stead. Whereas former team president Isiah Thomas specialized in finding talent in the later portions of the draft, such as forwards David Lee and Trevor Ariza, Walsh has consistently drafted well from the middle of the first round. During his time with the Indiana Pacers, Walsh chose solid NBA starters such as Danny Granger, Al Harrington, Erick Dampier, and Dale Davis, with picks in the middle to late stages of the first round. In a draft where the talent levels out substantially after the first few picks, Walsh’s savvy will be invaluable.The real issue will be whether the Knicks prioritize cap health or talent in the draft. Many draftniks have pegged UCLA’s Russell Westbrook at the best point guard outside of Rose, Bayliss, and Mayo. Some compare Westbrook to Boston’s defensive ace Rajon Rondo, and others think he’s like Golden State’s high-flying Monta Ellis. (I’ve never really thought of those two players being comparable myself — which may illustrate exactly what degree of guesswork is involved in the draft.) Westbrook may last to the 10th, or even the 12th pick, but trading down to unload a big contract might entail moving down even further than that pick. On the other hand, staying put and taking Westbrook at six might be investing more draft-night capital on him that is warranted.One clear solution would be to trade down to a team with a backcourt surplus, such as Portland. The Trail Blazers have Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez, two Spanish guards with great potential. In addition the Blazers, a team that was in a worse cap predicament than the Knicks four years ago, enter next season with a ton of cap space. The Knicks could help Portland sort out their roster surplus and improve their own cap situation at the same time. New York could trade a player with a midsized bad contract, such as either Quentin Richardson or Malik Rose, plus the no. 6 pick to the Blazers in exchange for either Rodriguez or the rights to Fernandez and the Blazers’ first-round pick, which is no. 13. The trade would give Portland a better chance at an impact player or a top European player that they could stash overseas until the opportune moment; and it would give the Knicks both cap relief and two new faces to start the long, long march back to respectability.The secondary benefit of a draft-night trade is that it keeps the focus on Walsh and D’Antoni’s efforts to turn the team around, which is crucial. No matter what player the Knicks pick on Thursday, there’s more losing ahead before the playoffs enter the picture.mjohnson@nysun.com

For Knicks, Draft Is First Step in Long Climb

For Knicks, Draft Is First Step in Long Climb

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