Last year, the National League East didn’t give the Mets too much trouble: The Braves and Phillies could hit but couldn’t pitch; the Marlins were wrapped up in their personal drama, the one that has more to do with local politics and profit margins than putting a quality product on the field, and the Nationals were starting the experiment in zombie pitching that they’ve perfected this year.

Judging by New York’s 13–7 start, which has been powered by a major league-leading 2.88 ERA and an offense that is hitting .295 AVG/.368 OPA/.470 SLG and has scored the third-most runs in baseball, the Mets should be in good shape to do the same thing this year. In fact, they may be in better shape. Although David Wright, Paul Lo Duca, and Carlos Delgado have been disappointing, the offense is deeper overall, benefiting from not having to endure one more Kaz Matsui trial, the decline and fall of Cliff Floyd, too much Chris Woodward, and an ineffective Shawn Green — the 2007 version is almost miraculously better, at least so far. Carlos Beltran has rediscovered the stroke he misplaced last September, Jose Reyes is doing a fair impression of Honus Wagner, and Moises Alou is playing like a much younger man.

The pitching staff is deeper as well. Oddly, the Mets were hesitant to embrace John Maine last year, but now (presuming good health) they’ll get a full year out of him. In fact the staff is deeper overall; however badly Mike Pelfrey struggles, he’s not Jose Lima.

Still, the Mets can’t quite count their rings yet. The Braves are hanging with the Mets, even if it’s going to take some luck and unlikely consistency from Atlanta’s bullpen for the team to stick. The Braves’ starting rotation currently boasts an ERA of 4.48, which ranks in the bottom half of the league. While Tim Hudson has revived his career, improving his mechanics and finding a few miles per hour that had dropped off his fastball since he left Oakland, John Smoltz and Chuck James have been unimpressive — ERAs above 4.00 are actually ranking below average in the spring 2007 National League. Kyle Davies has been unable to establish himself in the bigs, and Mark Redman has been an unmitigated — and unsurprising — disaster at 0–3 with a 10.13 ERA.

Although Smoltz and James may fix their own issues, Davies seems less and less likely to, and Redman definitely won’t. It also is unlikely that Hudson will carry an ERA below 2.00 through the entire season, no matter how much it seems that the NL has entered a new dead ball era. When the weather heats up, the ball will, too. The Braves have a few pitching prospects with which they might experiment, but the best of them are still at Double-A, not Triple-A.

That doesn’t mean the Braves will disappear altogether. Their bullpen is much improved from last season, and their offense remains strong. Kelly Johnson, currently red hot at .306/.438/.569, has instantly become one of the game’s most potent second basemen. Jeff Francoeur, who used to be too smart to take ball four, has discovered that just a little bit of selectivity makes him a better hitter. Brian McCann remains one of the most valuable properties in baseball, despite the passed ball that helped turn a 3–0 ninth inning lead into a 4–3 loss on Wednesday night.

The Marlins can hit but lack pitching depth, and the Nationals will be a national joke all season. That leaves only the Phillies, who have opened the season with a disappointing 9–12 record. The team’s starting pitching has been abysmal, the bullpen only slightly better. Last week, a Philadelphia radio talk show host got into a shouting match with manager Charlie Manuel, arguing that the team would win more if Manuel would just yell at them more. Manuel didn’t yell at the Phillies, but he did yell at the radio host. Coincidental or not, the Phillies immediately commenced a five-game winning streak. That streak was broken yesterday, when Cole Hamels dropped a 4–2 decision to the Nationals.

Despite the poor record, a lot of things have been going right for the Phillies. The offense has done very well, and will be even better once Ryan Howard heats up — his home run on Wednesday was just his third of the season and he’s batting only .215/.409/.415.

But the real problems won’t be solved by yelling. Pat Gillick’s signing of Adam Eaton was a mistake — Eaton is a poor pitcher with a rich reputation. Brett Myers fell apart and had to be sent to the bullpen. The bullpen is at least two pitchers short.

The Phillies may yet recover, but the way the Mets are playing it will have to be soon. The Braves need to find another starter or they’ll fade. If the Mets can stay healthy, the division flag is theirs to win.

Mr. Goldman writes the Pinstriped Bible for yesnetwork.com and is the author of “Forging Genius,” a biography of Casey Stengel.