Four Mighty Contenders for NCAA Basketball Crown

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

After 60 games, dozens of thrilling moments, and one of the lowest upset tallies in recent tournament history, the Final Four has come down to four mighty contenders. Or to be more precise, two talent factories and two great systems.

Get ready for a star-studded cast: Greg Oden and Mike Conley, Roy Hibbert and Jeff Green, Joakim Noah and Al Horford, Arron Afflalo and Darren Collison. One of the strongest Final Four fields in years will do battle, with two no. 1 and two no. 2 seeds taking the floor. Here’s a look at the four combatants, how they got here, and how they might fare in Atlanta:

UCLA
One of the two great system teams left in the tourney, UCLA doesn’t have the same cavalcade of talent running up and down the floor as the rest of the Final Four teams do. Then again, the Bruins didn’t match up talent-wise against Elite Eight opponent Kansas either — and they still took care of business. UCLA is the top-ranked team among the four left in Ken Pomeroy’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency statistic (and no. 2 overall in Division I, trailing only just-defeated Kansas). Simply put, they make it tougher for other teams to score than anyone else. Collison, the speedy point guard and ballhawk, is as fast as any player in the nation and fuels UCLA’s defense with his dazzling foot speed and quick hands. But more than just natural ability, the Bruins make opponents’ lives miserable because Coach Ben Howland has cajoled them into doing so. The Bruins forced 21 Kansas turnovers, nabbing 15 steals in the process. The Jayhawks’ shot just 41% from the field; their 55 points scored was their lowest total of the season.

Of course the Jayhawks forced 24 turnovers of their own, including 17 steals. But UCLA had an answer: Arron Afflalo. Though the Bruins don’t have eight or nine scoring threats the way Florida or Ohio State does, they do have a go-to scorer and defender in Afflalo who can decide the game on both ends, sometimes by himself. He scored 13 of UCLA’s first 17 points in the second half against Kansas, that after a perfect dish to Josh Shipp set up a buzzer-beating three before halftime. His 24 points made the difference against the McDonald’s All America-laden Jayhawks, and his 10-for-10 free-throw shooting against Pitt sealed that game too. Afflalo and Georgetown’s Hibbert will be the two most important individual players in the Final Four.

Florida
The Gators don’t have one player they look to in clutch situations to win the game for them — they have five. Bruising pivotman Al Horford asserted his will on Butler in the regional semifinals, closing out the game by dominating inside and getting to the line at will. When the Bulldogs sagged inside, Florida kicked out to Taurean Green, who canned five threes to seal the deal. Noah, last year’s Final Four darling, and the 6-foot-9-inch human pogo stick Corey Brewer made a number of key plays in both the Butler game and against Elite Eight foe Oregon.

But when opponents lock in on the four junior stars, that leaves Florida’s deadly senior all alone to rip their hearts out. Sharpshooter Lee Humphrey tossed in seven bombs from beyond the arc yesterday, creating an inside-outside pick-your-poison dilemma that was too much for the Ducks to handle. A streaky shooter who can take over a game or fade completely out of sight, Humphrey might need to come up big again at some point. Or maybe not, given how good the rest of the starting five, as well as sixth man Chris Richard (six offensive rebounds vs. Oregon) can be. The Gators were the best team in the country in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency this year and have more go-to scorers than any other team. They’re the team to beat.

Georgetown
The Hoyas run as smooth an offense as you’ll ever see (no. 2 in offensive efficiency behind Florida), with two future first-round picks, Hibbert and Green, at the center of it all. Georgetown showed its mettle against North Carolina yesterday, rallying from 10 down with six minutes left to send the game to overtime, then shoving the Tar Heels off the court in the extra period. Hibbert showed his indispensability, snatching 11 rebounds, swatting six Carolina shots and altering several others. Even when he wasn’t scoring, Hibbert was occupying plenty of attention on both ends, opening driving lanes for Jessie Sapp and long-range shots for Jonathan Wallace and DaJuan Summers. If Hibbert gets into foul trouble against Oden early, the Hoyas will have a tough time keeping up with the Buckeyes.

Georgetown does have an X-factor in its favor, though. Jeff Green was the center of much debate Friday night, after his game-winning bank shot led to a debate about whether or not he shuffled his feet before launching. There was no debate about Green’s approach, though, both in that game and against the Heels. Down the stretch, the 6-foot-9-inch junior slapped his chest and yelled for the ball repeatedly, initiating his own offense just when Georgetown needed it most. A great passer, fierce rebounder, sturdy defender and smart decision maker, Green’s stardom sometimes gets lost within his own versatility and the greater Georgetown system. But with the Hoyas lacking the multiple offensive options available to Ohio State, Green will need another 20-point game, selfishness be damned.

Ohio State
Are the Buckeyes actually better without the player many believe will be the top pick in June’s NBA draft? At times, they can be — and that’s a scary thought for Georgetown, plus UCLA or Florida if Ohio State reaches the final. Mike Conley has arguably been the breakout star of the tournament, driving to the rim at will against any and all defenders, hitting key free throws, playing lock-down defense and even hitting occasional threes, not usually his forte. If Conley’s been the no. 1 guy, though, senior swingman Ron Lewis might be 1a). Ohio State would have never gotten this far without Lewis’s 27-foot rainbow to send the second-round game against Xavier into overtime, not to mention the scads of other clutch shots he’s hit in the past week and a half. And there’s so much more here too. Jamar Butler is a deadly spot-up shooter on the break. One of the least heralded of the “Thad Five” freshman class, David Lighty’s rebounding and timely hoops have been huge. Othello Hunter, Ivan Harris … the Buckeyes are loaded.

But getting past Xavier and Tennessee without big contributions from Oden is one thing. Doing it in the Final Four against superior competition would be quite another. Oden needs to win the battle against Hibbert, using his superior quickness to blow by the Hoyas’ bigger center and get him in foul trouble. He’ll need to do the same against Noah and Horford if the Buckeyes get a matchup with Florida, or assert his will against Lorenzo Mata and company if the Bruins make it through.

Predictions
Semifinals: Florida over UCLA; Ohio State over Georgetown
Final: Florida over Ohio State


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