Free Agents Play Their Way To Big Off-Season Paydays

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MIAMI – Everybody loves a winner, and in the case of professional sports, everybody loves to pay a winner.

That’s why this year’s NBA postseason has been especially important for the bank accounts of a few select players. Chief among them is Dallas guard Jason Terry. He’s a free agent this summer, and it looks like “championship point guard” will be the top item on his resume when the bidding starts. Terry hasn’t been a bit player either, dropping in 32 points in a Game 1 of the Finals, which was doubtless seen by execs throughout the league.

The interesting part is that Terry is no stranger to free agency. Three years ago as an Atlanta Hawk, “Jet” (Jason Eugene Terry – get it?) got scant attention from bidders, even from his own team. Perceived as a second or third-tier point guard because his shoot-first tendencies weren’t conducive to running an offense, Terry had to sweat out most of the summer before getting a three-year, $22 million offer sheet from Utah that the Hawks eventually matched.

He could triple that amount this summer, especially if the Mavericks end up finishing off Miami in the coming days. But although he’ll be three times wealthier, Terry isn’t three times the player he was. In fact, it’s hard to see that anything has changed at all besides his new pedigree as a “winner.”

Based on Player Efficiency Rating (my per-minute rating of a player’s statistical effectiveness), the Jason Terry of 2006 is virtually identical to the Terry of 2003, when he was last a free agent. The 2003 Terry scored a bit less, but averaged nearly twice as many assists per 40 minutes and was more helpful on the boards. Overall, it was pretty much a wash in terms of PER – 18.5 to 18.3.

As such, Terry is the odds-on favorite to have the greatest “playoff payoff” this summer. But he’s hardly alone.A few other free agents figure to earn more than they expected (or deserve, for that matter) as a result of the winner’s halo:

KEITH VAN HORN Every Net fans’ favorite player in these Finals – not because of the fond memories, but because he’s been matched up against Alonzo Mourning – Van Horn also gets a chance to showcase the skills that make him more of a threat in the new rules environment.A solid outside shooter at 6-foot-10, he also has the quickness to handle the defensive switches against smaller players that are an increasingly important part of the game. He might have been forgotten had he not been in these Finals, but now he’s looking at a multiyear deal that could approach $10 million.

ADRIAN GRIFFIN The Dallas defensive specialist left NBA general managers so unimpressed a year ago that he was sitting at home when the Mavericks called him two weeks into the season. Let’s just say he won’t have that problem again this summer. Griffin has emerged as a starter thanks to his defensive intensity and relentless hustle, but he’s also an underrated offensive player. He won’t drop 20 points on anybody, but he’s a good passer and penetrator, and he can pick apart smaller players in the post if an opponent tries to “hide” a weak defender against him. As a result of the Mavs’ playoff run, the journeyman will get the richest contract of his seven-year career.

JOSH HOWARD Technically, Howard isn’t a free agent this summer, but he is eligible for a contract extension. It should be quite a rich one if he can use his status as the second-best player on a championship team as a selling point. Howard didn’t impress with an erratic effort in Game 1 against Miami, but by that point he had already made his case. A series of breathtaking efforts in the conference finals against Phoenix, including lockdown defense on two-time MVP Steve Nash in the second half of Game 6, has Howard headed for the big bucks. Look for him to get a six-year extension at close to $10 million a year before next season begins.

TIM THOMAS Mr.Fugazy was the real deal for Phoenix in the postseason, hitting the game-tying 3-pointer in Game 5 to keep the Suns alive in the Lakers series and averaging 15.1 points on 49.1% shooting for the playoffs. Like Van Horn (Kenyon Martin’s other favorite freeagent forward this summer), Thomas has benefited from the recent rules changes, which allow him to rain threes from the power forward spot without being overwhelmed defensively. There’s still reason to doubt Thomas, however, as his regularseason numbers were ordinary and many question whether he’ll keep playing hard once he has a deal in place. But there are 30 general managers in the NBA, and one of them is going to pay him an awful lot of money to find out.

BONZI WELLS Besides Terry, nobody will take home a bigger financial boost from this postseason than Wells. He was thought of as a middle-tier free agent in mid-April, but then he trashed San Antonio in the first round of the playoffs. Wells averaged 23.2 points on 60.9% shooting and grabbed 12.0 rebounds against the league’s best defensive team, extending the Spurs to a tough six games. That was only six games, though, so no matter how good they were, it shouldn’t change the impression made by his previous 600.But it will, because that’s the way the NBA works – just ask Jerome James. A troublemaker with a shaky jumper and a trick knee, Wells is going to leave somebody horribly disappointed.

TONY DELK AND LAMOND MURRAY

Sometimes the hardest part of free agency is simply reminding people that you’re still alive. For these two, the playoffs served notice to general managers that their playing days aren’t done yet. Delk was imprisoned on the Hawks’ inactive list for most of the season before Detroit liberated him late in the season, and unlike most of his teammates, his shooting didn’t desert him in the playoffs. He should get a nice twoyear deal as a result.

Murray was in similar straits in New Jersey before becoming the primary playing-time beneficiary of Clifford Robinson’s rendezvous with Mary Jane. He didn’t play particularly well, but at least he played. If history is any guide, somebody in need of scoring off the bench will be calling now that his name is back in circulation.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.


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