French Open Draw A Gift to Roddick

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The New York Sun

The tennis Gods have taken pity on Andy Roddick.


Tired of seeing the 22-year-old smacked around on clay, they have designed a near perfect draw for the hard serving American. If Roddick cannot find his way out of the first week as the second seed at this year’s French Open, then there’s no hope.


On Tuesday, Roddick starts off against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, one of seven Frenchmen granted wild cards into the main draw. From there, Roddick will likely have to overcome men who, though much more comfortable than he is on clay, are far inferior players: Jose Acasuso and Italy’s Filippo Volandri. Acasuso lost in the first round of the U.S. Clay Court Championships, which Roddick won. Volandri, seeded 27th, is the sort of consistent, patient player who has dispatched Roddick from the French in the past, but one could hardly ask for much better in the third round of a Grand Slam.


The highest ranked opponent in Roddick’s quarter of the draw is Andre Agassi, seeded sixth. Agassi’s clay court season has had more downs than ups, and he might have trouble in the third round against Argentina’s Guillermo Canas or possibly Spain’s Feliciano Lopez. If Roddick survives fourth round challenges from either Chile’s Nicolas Massu, an Argentine lefty named Mariano Puerta, or American James Blake, one could hardly call him an underdog in a quarterfinal against Agassi, Canas, or Lopez.


Andy Roddick in the semifinals of the French Open, where he has never won more than two matches? It’s not only possible, but plausible. His draw is that good. Even though the red clay of Roland Garros has always taken the sting out of Roddick’s shots and highlighted his suspect footwork, his opponents ought to be overmatched.


If Roddick does reach the semis, though, his run will almost certainly end there. Last year’s finalist, Guillermo Coria, the eighth seed, is the favorite to reach the finals. Coria might arrive there well rested, having faced Roddick or a weaker clay-court specialist like Canas in the semifinals.


Coria should cruise into the fourth round, where Russian Nikolay Davydenko, another clay-court standout this season, should be waiting. In the quarterfinals, we could see a wonderful match between Coria and Juan Carlos Ferrero, if the Spaniard can beat Russian Marat Safin, seeded third, for the third time on clay this season (considering that the 25-year-old Safin has played more like a man twice his age since winning the Australian Open, Ferrero should be up to the challenge). Ferrero, who lost most of 2004 to injuries, won the French Open in 2003 and beat Coria on his way to the 2002 final, their only meeting in Paris. Coria has won their last two outings, including an April semifinal match in Monte Carlo.


In the other half of the draw, top-seed Roger Federer and teenage phenom Rafael Nadal will work a lot harder for their victories as they move toward a semifinal showdown.


Federer should cruise through the first three rounds, but from the fourth round on, his opponents will become steadily more difficult. First there’s Spaniards Carlos Moya or Alberto Martin, followed by a quarterfinal against either of two Argentines – David Nalbandian and Juan Ignacio Chela – or, less likely, Britain’s Tim Henman or Croatia’s Mario Ancic.


Nadal, meanwhile, could face 18-year-old talent Richard Gasquet in the third round, followed by Radek Stepanek, a serve-and-volleyer from the Czech Republic who is comfortable on clay and took a set off Nadal in Rome. In the quarterfinals, Nadal will see either Argentina’s Gaston Gaudio (last year’s champ), or another dangerous clay-court player like David Ferrer or Fernando Verdasco. The winner of Federer and Nadal ought to be near spent come the June 5 final, but he should at least be able to rely on Coria’s suspect nerves for a few free points.


In the women’s draw, Switzerland’s Patty Schnyder is primed to have the best Grand Slam of her career.


The 26-year-old recently defeated Maria Sharapova to reach the finals of the Italia Masters in Rome and has performed well on clay throughout her career. This year, she should benefit from a good draw and a lingering leg injury to Belgian Kim Clijsters, who would otherwise be favored to reach the final.


Schnyder, seeded eighth, could face ninth seed Vera Zvonareva or Mary Pierce in the fourth round. From there, Clijsters or Lindsay Davenport, who loathes the clay, might turn up as quarterfinal opponents. If Clijsters cannot perform at her best, Schnyder should advance to meet either Elena Dementieva, last year’s finalist who is also hampered by injuries; Venus Williams, who won last week’s tune-up in Istanbul but skipped the more competitive clay events this year and has looked mediocre at best; and Anastasia Myskina, who has yet to emerge from a year-long funk that includes, most recently, a loss to a player ranked no. 107 in the world.


While Schnyder’s half of the draw is littered with question marks, Henin-Hardenne’s is loaded with certain contenders. The versatile Belgian will need first-rate performances from the fourth round on, as she might have to defeat Svetlana Kuznetsova, Sharapova, and Amelie Mauresmo in consecutive matches to reach the finals.


As always, third-seeded Mauresmo presents a perplexing case. She once again arrives in Paris in high spirits, having had another successful clay-court season that included a victory over Schnyder in the Rome final. At her best, Mauresmo makes tennis a pleasure to watch – she volleys exceptionally well, varies the pace and spin of her shots, and outclasses her opponents when it comes to tactical expertise.


Unfortunately, Mauresmo’s nerves almost always get the better of her, especially at the Grand Slams. With Roland Garros being the grandest stage of them all for the Frenchwoman, it is hard imagine her surviving her first-ever French semifinal against a player the caliber of Henin-Hardenne. To get there, Mauresmo may have to overcome another emotional challenge: defeating countrywoman Tatiania Golovin, a transplant from Russia, in the quarterfinals.


After watching Mauresmo meet with one painful end after another, it’s hard not to root for her to end the futility in what will be her 11th go-round in Paris. If not this year, when? We’ll soon see what answers she and Roddick have to offer.


The New York Sun

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