Super Bowl XXXIX (Sunday, 6:30 p.m., FOX) has taken on a whiff of inevitability, and very few fans expect the Philadelphia Eagles to triumph. The New England Patriots are coming off two games in which they limited the NFL’s best offense – the Colts – to a field goal and then laid waste to the NFL’s best defense – the Steelers – with 41 points. Having won two of the last three Super Bowls, Patriots coach Bill Belichick has, incredibly, assembled a squad that is even better than its predecessors.

The Eagles, for their part, are bursting with talented players and boast one of the NFL’s best coaches in Andy Reid. They’ve won more games than any other NFL team this decade and dominated the 2004 NFC from wire to wire. It is their misfortune that, having finally reached the Super Bowl, their opponent presents them with the worst matchup possible. To stop the coronation of the next NFL dynasty, the Eagles will need a stalwart performance from their defense, strong field position thanks to turnovers and special teams, and an improbable recovery from the most famous ankle in sports.

WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL

Any discussion of the Eagles’ offense has to begin with Terrell Owens – even sherpas in remote Himalayan villages are talking about whether the Eagles’ game-breaking receiver can be a factor. T.O broke his right ankle six weeks ago but accelerated the timetable of his rehabilitation in an effort to be ready for the Super Bowl. He plans to play, but at what strength?

While the only impediment to Owens’s ability to run should be his own tolerance for pain, the ankle will be a much bigger issue when Owens needs to change direction. A healthy Owens, more than almost any wide receiver in the league, can take an 8-yard slant, shake defenders, and turn it into a long gain.

But barring a medical miracle, that ability will be all but eliminated on Sunday. If he attempts to make a hard cut, he won’t be able to plant on the right ankle and go left. That gives the Patriots’ defenders an opportunity to shade him, knowing any move will likely be to the right.

The safest assumption is that Owens will be useful, but not the game-changing force he is when healthy. That means Philadelphia quarterback Donovan McNabb will throw to a group of receivers who present only short- and medium-range threats, apart from the occasional long bomb to Greg Lewis.

Unfortunately for the Eagles, their offensive weapons directly match the strengths of the New England defense.

Brian Westbrook, for example, excels at breaking long runs out of the backfield or gaining yards after screen play receptions. But the New England linebackers excel at pursuit and tackling, and safety Rodney Harrison’s physical presence stops a lot of long runs. No defense gives up fewer double-digit runs than New England.

Passes to Westbrook might find moderate success, as New England did give up more yardage on passes to running backs than the average defense. But many of those gains came in the fourth quarters of games in which the Patriots were sitting on a large lead and playing loose defense. Even still, New England did not give up a single touchdown on a pass to a running back this season.

Beyond Owens and Westbrook, Mc-Nabb’s favorite targets are his tight ends, L.J. Smith and Chad Lewis. The Eagles like to move Smith around to create matchup problems for opposing defenses, but that strategy will be less effective with Lewis sidelined by a foot injury, and rendered more difficult against the Patriots’ flexible 3-4 defensive alignment. Thanks to the coverage ability of their linebackers and safeties, the Patriots’ defense was the league’s best against tight ends this year.

New England’s multiple-look alignment will test McNabb’s ability to read defenses. McNabb’s worst performances of the season came in his two games against AFC teams playing a 3-4 defensive scheme. He passed for only 219 yards on 33 attempts in the narrow 15-10 win over Baltimore, and only 109 yards on 24 attempts in a 27-3 loss in Pittsburgh.

Because no NFC teams play the 3-4, the Eagles lack experience against teams where the fourth pass rusher varies from down to down. An area of particular concern is the right side of the offensive line, where banged-up right tackle Jon Runyan will have to block pass-rushing linebacker Willie McGinest, who thrives in big games.

This is where the Eagles will miss Chad Lewis the most; as an experienced pass blocker, he could pick up a linebacker or double a defensive end. Smith, on the other hand, rarely stays in for pass protection, and Jeff Thomason, Lewis’s emergency replacement, was more of a pass-catching halfback than a blocking tight end in his last go-around with the Eagles.

Making things even more confusing, the Patriots will diverge from the 3-4 when circumstances warrant. Depth allows New England to run unique defensive schemes and shift them constantly. Sometimes they’ll look like a 4-3, or they’ll use five or even six linemen to stop the run. Sometimes they’ll put out two linemen, or no linemen and six linebackers.

Against Indianapolis and Pittsburgh, the Patriots shocked many observers by often rushing only three linemen and rarely blitzing. But as they showed in those games, the Pats are most effective when they sit back, giving their intelligent linebackers and defensive backs time to react to the opposing quarterback. Expect a similar strategy against Philadelphia.

If the Patriots have one weakness on defense, it’s their inexperienced secondary, which made them susceptible to big games by opposing second and third receivers in 2004.

But the Eagles obtained Owens in the off-season precisely because their other receivers – notably Freddie Mitchell and Todd Pinkston – were so poor. Pinkston is notorious for shying away from contact, which does not bode well against a team that has been famously physical in postseason games against finesse receivers like the Rams’ Issac Bruce and the Colts’ Marvin Harrison.

By the end of the first quarter Sun day, it should become clear whether we’re headed for a New England rout. If the Eagles’ offensive game plan can penetrate the New England defense, it will show immediately. Philadelphia averaged a league-best 7.4 yards per play in the first quarter, and they only had one first-quarter turnover all season.

The Patriots, meanwhile, had the league’s best first-quarter defense, allowing only 5.0 yards per play with a league-high 11 takeaways. Since the Eagles have used early leads to dictate strategy all season, it is difficult to imagine them winning if their first two or three drives in the Super Bowl are unsuccessful.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

It is often said that the best defensive game plan is to take away whatever your opponents do best, forcing them to play a style that emphasizes their weaknesses. That will be very difficult for the Eagles on Sunday. The Patriots’ offense has no real weaknesses, and its remarkable balance is what makes this New England team better than its two Super Bowl-winning predecessors.

Play a zone on their multiple receiver packages, and quarterback Tom Brady will find the holes. Play man coverage, and the wide receivers will beat your corners. Blitz, and the Patriots will run short timing routes, screens, and draw plays. Concentrate too much on pass coverage, and Corey Dillon will run wild.

If the Eagles are to keep this game close, they’ll have to disrupt Brady’s ability to make smart decisions in the pocket. And there’s good reason to think they can do so: Defensive coordinator Jimmy Johnson has put together an intense pass rush that can pressure opposing quarterbacks with just the defensive line and then turn up the heat with complicated blitz schemes.

The Eagles keep their pass rush fresh with a rotation of interior linemen that includes Corey Simon, Darwin Walker, Hollis Thomas, and Sam Rayburn. Though he does not start, Rayburn has emerged as the most consistent of these players. He’s the best run defender of the group, and ranks second on the team in sacks.

But the most important player on the Philadelphia defense is Pro Bowl middle linebacker Jeremiah Trotter. After their loss to Pittsburgh at midseason, the Eagles re-inserted Trotter into the starting lineup, and his intensity has turned Philadelphia into a more complete and physical defense.

Philadelphia’s five best defensive performances have come during the second half of the season, and Trotter has helped the Eagles finally solve their problems defending the run after a season-and-a-half of mediocrity. Philadelphia allowed 4.9 yards per carry to opposing runners for the first nine weeks of the season. That number has dipped to 3.7 since Trotter joined the starting lineup (excluding the final two games of the season where the Eagles rested most of their players).

Stopping the Patriots’ running game presents a new challenge, however. Whereas the Eagles’ previous playoff opponents, Atlanta and Minnesota, are strongest running up the middle, where Trotter plays, the Patriots are strongest when running to the sides. Dillon generally manages to find a yard or two even when there’s no hole to run into, and if he can stay away from Trotter, that will set up the play action pass.

That, in turn, will give Brady more time to do what he does best: find an open receiver. The Patriots change offensive formations and personnel constantly, running every kind of pass route imaginable. They’ve had particular success this season throwing long, and should do so early and often on Sunday. Brady might not have the strongest arm in the league, but he’s incredibly accurate when throwing it deep: New England was sixth in the league in the percentage of pass receptions that went for 20 yards or more.

Neither David Givens nor David Patten is extremely fast, but both have fairly high per-catch averages because Brady can hit them in stride even when they’re 20 or more yards downfield. And the Patriots have thrown deep even more often since Brady’s favorite receiver, Deion Branch, returned from an early-season injury – the pair hooked up for a 60-yard touchdown and a 45-yard completion in the AFC Championship Game.

The success of the Brady-Branch connection plays right into the major weakness of the Philadelphia pass defense. Despite the presence of three Pro Bowlers in the secondary – cornerback Lito Sheppard, strong safety Michael Lewis, and free safety Brian Dawkins – Philadelphia can be beaten deep.

Though above average against all other types of receivers, the Eagles struggled to contain opponents’ no. 1 wideouts. That’s not just Randy Moss: the Eagles gave up 100 yards in one game to Laveranues Coles, 116 yards to David Terrell, and a season-high 80 yards to Travis Taylor. And Giants fans will remember how they were burned for two 50-yard gains in Week 14 by Jamaal Taylor, whose previous NFL career consisted of four receptions.

This vulnerability results in part from the Eagles’ addiction to the blitz. Sheppard and Lewis may be a tad overrated, but at the risk of making Rodney Harrison feel disrespected, Dawkins deserves recognition as the best defensive player in this year’s Super Bowl. He is near-flawless in pass coverage, strong against the run, and dangerous on the blitz.

The Eagles blitzed less in the first two rounds of the postseason than they did during the regular season, preferring to pressure with just the front four. When they do blitz, they favor a play known as the “overload,” in which they send in one more pass rusher than the opponent has blockers on one side, while a defensive end on the other side drops into zone coverage to help prevent a quick pass. This tactic will certainly test both New England running backs, Dillon and Kevin Faulk, who are excellent at blitz pickup.

During the regular season, only four teams allowed fewer quarterback sacks than the Patriots, whose strong offensive line is led by the twin Purdue alumni, left tackle Matt Light and right tackle Brandon Gorin. But the Patriots have trouble when tackles are left one-on-one against elusive pass rushers, and Philadelphia’s Javon Kearse resembles another pass rusher who causes the Patriots problems, Indianapolis’s Dwight Freeney.

The Patriots deal with Freeney by “chipping” him with a receiver in motion or a tight end going out on a pass route. They will likely deal with Kearse the same way, whether he is lining up in his usual position opposite Gorin or moving around as he did against Atlanta.

All told, the Philadelphia pass rush should be able to sack Brady a couple of times and hurry him on a few throws. Forcing a fumble on one of those sacks or picking off one of those hurried throws is their best chance to win the game. Bringing so many pass rushers that the New England receivers are open for big gains is the surest way to lose it.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is the one area where Philadelphia enjoys a significant advantage over New England. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the best kicker in the NFL is not New England’s Adam Vinatieri but Philadelphia’s David Akers. Yes, Vinatieri has a history of clutch kicks in the playoffs, but the only reason Akers does not have a similar history is that he has never had the opportunity.

Vinatieri and Akers were the top two field goal kickers in football this season, worth 15.2 points and 13.7 points, respectively, above an average kicker in the same situations. But Akers is consistently one of the league’s top kickoff men while Vinatieri is only mediocre. This will help the Eagles to neutralize the threat of Bethel Johnson, New Eng land’s nimble kick return man. As for Philadelphia’s two returners, J.R. Reed is more dangerous than Roderick Hood, although Hood is excellent in his other special teams role, tackling opposing returners.

Philadelphia’s biggest special teams advantage comes when they have to punt – the Eagles ranked second in the NFL in the value of field position gained when punting. Dirk Johnson is a fine punter, and the Eagles’ coverage is ferocious. The Patriots, on the other hand, have performed atrociously on punts all season.

The difference between a touchdown drive and one that stalls at a field goal is often bridged by just a few yards of starting field position. Given these teams’ statistical record, a typical Philadelphia punt followed by an typical New England return should lead to the Patriots starting their next drive roughly 6 to 8 yards behind the NFL average. That could give the Eagles a significant edge; then again, special teams are the most variable part of football.

THE PICK
PATRIOTS, 31-16

In a sport where the random bounce of a fumble can decide a game, even the greatest underdog has a chance of winning the Super Bowl. And Philadelphia is not the greatest underdog. While the rest of the NFC lagged far behind, the Eagles were statistically equal to the AFC’s top teams until the final two regular season games, when they played primarily second stringers. A Philadelphia win would be far less shocking than New England’s 2001 victory over St. Louis.

But the more likely outcome is a Philadelphia fan’s worst nightmare, with Donovan McNabb stuck trying to be a one-man team, grabbing an occasional first down on a scramble or a pass to Westbrook and, if he’s lucky, hitting Greg Lewis deep for one solitary big gain. Unless Terrell Owens comes out with a blood stain on his sock, Super Bowl XXXIX will probably be the third won by the New England Patriots, and their first championship decided well before the final seconds.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football Outsiders. Michael David Smith and Ryan Wilson provided extra research for this article. For more state-of-the-art football content, please visit www.footballoutsiders.com.