College football’s best rivalries have catchy nicknames, like the “Iron Bowl” and the “Backyard Brawl.” Others have decades-old trophies, such as the Old Oaken Bucket or the Stanford-Cal ax. Many of these rivalries have another thing in common: They serve as “onegame seasons.” Such value is placed on the rivalry that winning it can overshadow an otherwise disappointing year.

But the sport’s best rivalry relies on neither of these attributes. Ohio State-Michigan has neither a nickname nor a trophy. And it trumps every other college football grudge match because the teams are almost always vying for more than just the pride that comes with beating each other.

That has never been truer than this season, with no. 1 Ohio State (11–0, 7–0 Big Ten) set to host no.2 Michigan (10–0, 7–0) Saturday at Ohio Stadium. The game (ABC, 3:30 p.m. EST) will determine the outright Big Ten champion, and the winner will earn a berth in the Bowl Championship Series title game. The loser likely gets a trip to the Rose Bowl, and it remains possible that Saturday’s game could be a prelude to a rematch seven weeks later, though it will take help from some other teams to make that happen.

These teams have been on a collision course since October 14, when Michigan cleared its last major hurdle by winning at Penn State. Ohio State, which began the preseason atop all the major polls, affirmed that ranking in the season’s second week by winning on the road at then no. 2 Texas and has hardly been challenged since.

Given the circumstances, it could be argued that this will be the biggest regular-season game in college football history. Even so, this is hardly new territory for these schools and their fan bases.

The Big Ten title is almost always on the line when Ohio State plays Michigan. Since the game was moved to the last weekend of the Big Ten season in 1935, the outcome has helped determine the conference champion 42 previous times. There have been three previous meetings when both schools were unbeaten (1970, 1973, 1975). More recently, the game has frequently had an impact on the national-title race, with Michigan eliminating Ohio State from contention in 1993, 1995, 1996, and 2003. Ohio State beat Michigan on its way to the 2002 title, just as the Wolverines downed the Buckeyes on their way to a championship in 1997.

Ohio State has owned the series since Jim Tressel was hired in 2001, winning four of five meetings. Tressel owes his job in large part to the struggles of the former Ohio State coach, John Cooper, against Michigan. No one would blame Cooper, an otherwise excellent coach, if he still sees Michigan’s winged helmets in his nightmares. Despite producing a series of 10-win teams, Cooper exhausted his good will in Columbus by compiling a dismal 2–10–1 mark against the Wolverines. Worse yet, Cooper frequently lost with what appeared to be superior talent.

It’s natural to suggest, then, that the Buckeyes and Tressel have gotten into Michigan coach Lloyd Carr’s head of late. But Carr, who began his career 5–1 against Ohio State, hasn’t forgotten how to coach against the Buckeyes, and he won’t listen to press reports that suggest otherwise. There might not be a coach in America less concerned with his image than Carr, who treats each press conference as torture.

This game won’t be decided by the coaches. It will come down to a few key matchups and a few big plays. Ohio State may have an overall talent edge, but if so, it’s a slight one. The home field certainly helps the Buckeyes, but Michigan handled itself well in a very hostile environment when it traveled to Penn State. In Happy Valley, at night, the Wolverines were largely unfazed by the crowd of 111,000-plus, despite asking quarterback Chad Henne to frequently change plays at the line of scrimmage.

While Ohio State came into this season atop the polls after whipping Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, Michigan was coming off a 7–5 campaign, its worst season in a decade. Carr changed both his coordinators, which has led to noticeable differences in the Wolverines’ style of play. The Wolverines switched a zone-blocking scheme on offense that seems well suited to running back Mike Hart’s excellent vision and quickness through the hole. Though lacking in breakaway speed, Hart frequently makes something from nothing as twoyard losses become two-yard gains and four-yard gains become eight.

On defense, new coordinator Alex English has performed nothing short of a complete overhaul despite employing nearly all the same players. Michigan’s aggressive, attacking front seven is putting up historically good numbers against the run (29.9 yards a game allowed), while the overall unit ranks eighth in the country. The Wolverines swarm to the ball and use better pursuit angles to avoid giving up the big plays that plagued them a year ago.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Michigan is vulnerable to the pass — where they rank just 65th. But that misleading statistic measures only yardage allowed, and nearly every team Michigan has faced has abandoned the run game. On a pass-efficiency basis, which measures more what happens on an average play, Michigan is ranked 11th.

The Big Ten is the league that gave college football the “three yards and a cloud of dust”offense, so it’s fitting that this game will probably turn on the ability of Michigan to stop the run on defense and to run the ball on offense.

Clearly, Ohio State is the best offense Michigan has faced. Quarterback Troy Smith, who has been brilliant in leading the Buckeyes to two straight victories in the series, will win the Heisman trophy if he authors a similar performance. He’s been supremely accurate all season and has avoided turnovers. Michigan’s chances to contain Smith depend on stopping the run and forcing him into obvious passing situations. The Wolverines must also guard against Smith’s scrambling ability. He has largely been a pocket passer this season, but he’s likely to use some designed runs to slow the Michigan pass rush. Michigan’s ends, led by LaMarr Woodley, must contain the outside when Smith takes off.

Ohio State’s receivers, Ted Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez, are perhaps the best tandem in the nation. Michigan’s top corner, Leon Hall, will probably draw the assignment opposite Ginn and should be able to hold his own, but the pass rush must not allow Smith too much time to find late-opening receivers.

Offensively, Michigan’s chances rest on the ability of Hart to run the ball and force Ohio State to bring its safeties close to the line of scrimmage. Despite nine new starters, Ohio State’s defense is statistically stronger than a year ago. But if it has a weakness, it’s against the run. If the Buckeyes can contain Hart while staying in their base sets, Michigan’s passing game will suffer. Michigan’s approach to offense is to bludgeon opponents with the run, then go over the top to receiver Mario Manningham. It worked to perfection early in the season before Manningham hurt his knee. He’s said to be at full strength, but has been a very limited contributor in two games since returning from the injury. Michigan needs him to be able to stretch the field in order to win.

In the endless debate over whether college football should have a playoff, this game should satisfy everyone. Those who clamor for a playoff will get a de facto semifinal, while those who love the sport for its tradition will see two classic rivals playing for the ultimate prize.

A one-game season, indeed.

Oh Yeah, Some Other Teams Are Playing Saturday, Too

Michigan-Ohio State is of course the biggest game Saturday, but it isn’t the only one. The suddenly Rutgers-mad Metropolitan area will want to keep an eye on the sixth-ranked Scarlet Knights (9–0, 4-0 Big East) as they visit Cincinnati (5-5, 2-3). ESPN will televise the game at 7:45 p.m.

Having knocked off Louisville last Thursday, Rutgers finds itself both the darling of college football and in the thick of the race for BCS berths. Neither will last if the Knights fall victim to the letdown syndrome against Cincinnati.

Rutgers’s recipe for success against the Bearcats will be the same as it has against every opponent this year. Attack the quarterback with its swarming, undersized defensive line, and grind out long drives with running back Ray Rice on offense.

Even if Rutgers does get caught flatfooted in the early going, the Knights won’t panic. That’s the confidence overcoming an 18-point deficit against Louisville gives this team, which becomes a bigger thorn in the side of the BCS with each successive win.

NO. 15 CALIFORNIA AT NO. 3 USC
(Saturday, 8 p.m., ABC)

This game might have enjoyed near co-billing with Michigan-Ohio State had Cal not been upset at Arizona last week to fall out of the national-championship race. Instead, the Bears and Trojans will meet to decide the Pac-10 title and the conference’s automatic BCS bid.

USC, thought to have been bounced out of the BCS title-game picture following its loss to Oregon State three weeks ago, was bounced right back in by last Saturday’s poll shakeup. By moving up to third in the BCS standings, USC has an excellent chance to reach the national-title game against the Ohio State-Michigan winner if it can close the season with wins over Cal, Notre Dame, and UCLA.

Its explosive receivers now healthy and its defense peaking, USC routed Oregon at home last week, completely shutting down the Ducks’ potent offense. Cal presents a similar threat, both on the ground with standout back Marshawn Lynch, and through the air with Nate Longshore throwing to wideout DeSean Jackson, who is also one of the most dangerous punt returners in the country.

Cal has been tantalizingly close to the BCS in recent years, but has always fallen short. Despite the upset loss a week ago, the Bears can qualify for the their first Rose Bowl since 1958 with a win at the L.A. Coliseum.

Elsewhere, two games will help shape the ACC’s Atlantic Division. Wake Forest, the season’s other major surprise along with Rutgers, can reach the conference title game by beating Virginia Tech at home Saturday (7 p.m., ESPN2) and winning at Maryland next week. The Terrapins, tied with Wake Forest atop the Atlantic, visit Boston College (12 p.m., ESPN) earlier in the day. If both Maryland and Wake win, they will face each other next Saturday for a spot in the ACC title game opposite Georgia Tech.

Mr. Levine is a writer for Footballoutsiders.com.