Garnett Doesn’t Make Boston a Lock in East
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Who knew Isiah Thomas would spawn imitators? The blockbuster trade of Kevin Garnett to the Celtics yesterday came straight out of Zeke’s playbook: It mortgaged all of Boston’s future assets, puts them way over the luxury tax, and gives them a narrow window in which to contend before it all comes crumbing down.
Pulling off yesterday’s titanic deal required a huge dowry for Garnett’s former team, Minnesota: Rising star Al Jefferson, promising wing Gerald Green, troubled point guard Sebastian Telfair, steady role player Ryan Gomes, the expiring contract of Theo Ratliff, two first-round draft choices, and a partridge in a pear tree.
Boston also agreed to a generous three-year contact extension for Garnett that will pay him in excess of $20 million a year until he’s 35 and will be paying luxury tax for years to come. As with the Knicks and the Stephon Marbury trade, the Celtics did this because they want to become relevant again in a crowded sports market. The hope is that his addition will put the Celtics into the Finals within the next two years, and it just might work.
But many have placed the Eastern Conference tiara on Boston’s head already, which I believe is seriously jumping the gun. In fact, over the past couple days I’ve come across an unexpected obstacle — having to explain exactly how and why all the “nobodies” in the NBA are not created equal.
I can’t even tell you how many comments I’ve read in the past 48 hours, whether in papers or my inbox, with the supposition that, “if Cleveland could win the East with LeBron James and a bunch of nobodies,” then Garnett’s arrival in Boston — pairing him with All-Stars Paul Pierce and Ray Allen — virtually guarantees the Celtics the conference title.
Apparently these people feel there are only two kinds of basketball players — those with shoe commercials and those without — and further, that the players in the latter category all form one giant huddled mass under the banner of “role players” whose impact on wins and losses is utterly negligible.
So perhaps it’s time to look at how things are back in the real world, and show why the Celtics are far from a lock to win the Eastern Conference despite their imposing trio.
If this were a 3-on-3 league, then indeed the Celtics would be overwhelming favorites. But the trade for Garnett, along with the previous draft day deal for Allen, absolutely denuded the Celtics’ roster of secondary talents — six heavily used players from a year ago have new homes because of the trades. Boston’s fourth and fifth starters, at present, would be second-year point guard Rajan Rondo and fourth-year center Kendrick Perkins.
Beyond those two, the bench looks to be a total joke. Former Net scrub Brian Scalabrine, second-year forward Leon Powe, and two second-round draft picks — Glen Davis and Gabe Pruitt — comprise the rest of the roster, although guard Tony Allen could add to that group by midseason if he can return from a knee injury.
But hey, if Cleveland could win the East with LeBron and a bunch of nobodies, the Celtics should have no problem with their threesome and a bunch of nobodies, right?
Wrong. Cleveland’s nobodies are actually decent players. None of them are anywhere near LeBron’s stratosphere, which is what helps gives the impression that the Cavs are a one-man band. And in comparison to better-balanced teams like the Pistons and Bulls, they tend to look that way.
But compare them to the Celtics, and suddenly their nobodies start looking pretty good. Consider the frontcourt, for instance. Last season, according to my Player Efficiency Rating (PER, my perminute rating of a player’s statistical performance), Garnett put up a PER of 24.2, the eighth-best mark in the league. Meanwhile, Cleveland’s starting power forward, Drew Gooden, only managed a 16.6. That’s a huge advantage for Boston.
But another Cleveland “nobody,” Zydrunas Ilgauskas, put up an 18.0 from the center spot. Compare that to Perkins, who managed a measly 9.5, and it more than offsets the advantage Garnett held over Gooden.
The disparity gets worse as you dig deeper. Off the pine, the Cavs’ Donyell Marshall and Anderson Varejao posted marks of 15.3 and 14.5 respectively — right around the league average, and miles ahead of what the Celtics can present. Powe did manage a 14.5 mark in limited minutes, though few think he can repeat the effort (he’s a lightly regarded second-round pick who is undersized and has bad knees). But the other reserve big man, Scalabrine, posted a putrid 6.6. Again, the Cavs’ nobodies have a huge advantage here.
Point guard is a wash — Cleveland’s nobody, Larry Hughes, isn’t any better than Rondo — and the Celtics have an edge on the wings, where LeBron (24.6) and Sasha Pavlovic (12.1) aren’t enough to overcome Boston’s Pierce and Allen (21.7 each). But statistically, even with three big stars to the Cavs’ one, the Celtics don’t appear to be any better off.
And there’s one other huge consideration to take into account. PER glosses over most defensive plays, because only blocks and steals go into it, and thus players from top defensive teams tend to be underrated.
This is very important, because Cleveland is an elite defensive team. The Cavs last season ranked fourth in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency(mymeasureofateam’s points allowed per 100 possessions), while the Celtics were a mediocre one, ranking 18th.
Thus, the comparison above only becomes relevant if one presumes Boston can be as good as Cleveland defensively. This is highly unlikely. While Garnett will be a huge improvement over the departed Jefferson, the other big import, Allen, is a very poor defensive player who won’t be any better following off-season surgery on both ankles.
I should point out that the Celtics do have the kernel of a fantastic team here, and if they can somehow flesh it out with a couple of decent secondary players they probably will win the East.
But it’s hard to see how they’ll be able to accomplish that task. Boston has no other trade assets left, so all the remaining work has to be done in free agency. But the Celtics are limited to their cap exceptions, and most of the top free agents are already gone. At best, they’ll be able to get a couple of veteran role players that might give them PERs in the low teens and play solid defense.
And in the final analysis, it’s not clear to me that the team Boston ends up with will be any better than the defending conference champs from Cleveland. Mind you, that’s only one comparison — Chicago arguably has more talent than either of these teams, and of course Detroit and the defending division champion Raptors can’t be discounted.
But take it from somebody who has followed the Nets closely the past couple of years — it takes a lot more than three stars to win a conference title. Jersey’s three stars had a better supporting cast than the Celtics’ motley crew, and last year they couldn’t even crack .500.
The fact is, while the stars are the most important elements, those “nobodies” around them do matter. And when they are as bad as Boston’s, then the Cavs’ single ace really can trump the Celtics’ three kings.