Don’t believe all that Super Bowl hype coming out of Carolina. Despite identical 11-5 records, the Giants are far superior to the Panthers on offense. Both teams had strong defenses – that is, until a couple of weeks ago, when Big Blue’s linebacking corps broke down.

CAROLINA PANTHERS (11-5) AT N.Y. GIANTS (11-5)
(Sunday, 1 p.m., FOX)

WHEN THE PANTHERS HAVE THE BALL

All three of the Giants’ opening day linebackers are injured, as is backup middle linebacker Chase Blackburn. That leaves Big Blue with strong but relatively inexperienced Nick Greisen and two players who made their first starts of the season last week: special teamer Alonzo Jackson and veteran Kevin Lewis, who had been sitting at home since the Giants waived him prior to the season.

But Carolina’s offense is not built to take advantage of this weakness. You can attack linebackers with the tight end, but only five teams threw fewer passes to tight ends than Carolina did this year. You can also attack linebackers with a strong running game, but the Carolina ground game is horrible.

You can’t blame the offensive line, which does a good job blocking against both the run and the pass, and started the same five players in all 16 games. Carolina ranked 13th in adjusted line yards, a stat that attempts to separate blockers from rushing gains in the open field. Yet they ranked just 27th in actual yards per carry.

This was partly due to the struggles of veteran Stephen Davis, now injured, but things didn’t get much better with the maddeningly inconsistent DeShaun Foster. Foster is constantly stuffed at the line, but every so often he’ll break a huge highlight-reel gain. The problem is that there are very few of these, and most of them come against Atlanta. Against other teams, Foster dropped from 7.0 to 3.6 yards per carry and scored zero touchdowns.

Carolina’s offense is built around one thing: Throwing the ball to gamebreaking wide receiver Steve Smith, and then throwing the ball to him some more. Smith led the NFL in receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, even percentage of passes caught. Given the way the weak Giants secondary (Will Allen in particular) struggled against Washington’s Santana Moss two weeks ago, it’s hard to see them finding a way to stop Smith.

WHEN THE GIANTS HAVE THE BALL

Luckily for the Giants, Tampa Bay and Dallas have provided clinics in the last month on how to beat the Carolina offense. But the Giants will need to change some of their habits to attack the Panthers’ weaknesses.

Four weeks ago, Tampa Bay showed how to beat Carolina with a non-stop barrage of short passes. Panthers head coach John Fox favors a “play it safe” strategy that focuses on stopping big plays, but this leaves plenty of space open in the middle. Tampa completed 20 of 27 passes as part of four long scoring drives, but only one was for more than a dozen yards and only five were for more than nine yards.

A short passing game can also help neutralize Carolina’s awesome defensive ends, Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker, by getting the ball out of the quarterback’s hands quickly.

To take advantage, the Giants must shift their focus. One way will be to send Plaxico Burress into slant patterns instead of depending on the usual sandlot play of “Plax, run far and jump for it.” Also, the more tight end Jeremy Shockey plays, and the less his high left ankle sprain hinders him, the more the Giants can attack Carolina where it’s weakest.

While Tampa showed how to beat Carolina through the air, Dallas showed how to beat them on the ground: run at defensive tackle Jordan Carstens. Over and over, Cowboys left guard Larry Allen pushed Carstens back five yards, creating huge holes. New York’s David Diehl isn’t an All-Pro like Allen, but he’ll do the job, and the Giants happen to run best behind the left tackle and left guard.

Tiki Barber is not only red hot right now, but his talent as a pass receiver out of the backfield makes him the best player to attack all of Carolina’s weaknesses.

But just as important may be fullback Jim Finn. Panthers middle linebacker Dan Morgan is good in pursuit but has trouble when teams run straight at him, so Finn’s blocks are key. Finn is also important in short-yardage downs. The Panthers are the best team in the NFL at preventing conversions on third-and-short, and the Giants had a hard time on those downs this season. They converted just 56%, and short yardage back Brandon Jacobs had problems holding on to the football.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Giants’ special teams have slowed down considerably since scoring two return touchdowns on opening day. Kicker Jay Feely, after missing just one field goal during the first half of the season, has missed six in the second half, including the infamous three-miss game in Seattle. Carolina has gotten solid seasons out of punter Jason Baker and kicker John Kasay. But the Panthers are weak in kick returns, ranked 26th in the league.

OUTLOOK

The sixth seed in the NFC has beaten the third seed twice in three years, and Carolina was 6-2 on the road this season. But Big Blue went 8-1 at home, and Carolina’s only impressive road win came in Tampa Bay. Atlanta gave up on last week’s game, and the other four teams Carolina beat on the road were 5-11 or worse.

If it weren’t for the injuries to Shockey and the linebackers, the Giants would be an easy choice. But the Giants can overcome the injuries – and Steve Smith – as long as they attack Carolina’s weaknesses instead of trying to impose their game on the Panthers. And a little help from the crowd won’t hurt.

The Pick: Giants

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com. Michael David Smith also contributed to this column.