Gimpy Patriots Stare at Losing Streak
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

For some reason, New England’s loss last week to the Pittsburgh Steelers seemed to vindicate idea that 21 straight wins were a mirage. One national Web site stated that the Patriots were not a historically great team, but a team that has relied on luck and opportunistic turnovers in order to win. It’s a strange reaction, as if interceptions are random fortune instead of quality pass coverage and no other champion in history built its victories on turnover advantage.
The Patriots know they’re a great team, and are more concerned about the injuries that came with the loss. They entered the game missing second cornerback Tyrone Poole, and during the game lost Pro Bowl cornerback Ty Law to a broken foot that may sideline him for the rest of the season. They went into the game missing their right tackle Tom Ashworth, and then lost their left tackle, Matt Light.
Running back Corey Dillon also missed the game with a thigh injury. That meant no play action, no running game, no protection for Tom Brady, and easy pickings for Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh passing game.
The result of these injuries in regard to this week’s Patriots-Rams match-up was to take a game that was far more lopsided than it seemed at first glance, and make it as close as it looks. According to a rating system I use which breaks the season down play-by-play to compare each team’s performance to league average, the Rams are by far the most overrated team in the NFL this season. They rank 26th among the 32 teams in the Football Outsiders total team ratings, below 11 teams with losing records.
The Rams may appear to be no different this year than in recent seasons, with a high-powered passing game complemented by a quality rushing game and a below-average defense. Same old Rams, right? Not really. The misunderstood 2003 Rams had one of football’s top defenses, while the offense had declined from the juggernaut of 2001.
But there were a couple of reasons to suspect that the St. Louis defense might have problems this season: first, the departure of coordinator Lovie Smith, who became head coach in Chicago; second, the fact that they recovered far more than their share of fumbles in 2003, a trend that was likely to return to league-average.
Takeaways by the Rams defense, however, haven’t just become less frequent; they’ve practically disappeared. Last year the Rams led the NFL with 46 takeaways – 24 interceptions and 22 fumble recoveries. This year they have two interceptions and four fumble recoveries.
The St. Louis defense is equally bad against the run and the pass. It is equally bad on first, second, and third down. It is equally bad in the red zone and on the rest of the field. It is ranked 28th in yards allowed.
But as the defense has seen turnovers disappear this season, so has the Rams’ offense. Last year, with the exception of standout receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, the Rams offense struggled. Quarterback Marc Bulger threw 22 interceptions, while running back Marshall Faulk missed five games with injury and his backups played poorly.
This year, Bulger has thrown seven interceptions and raised both his completion percentage and his average yards-per-pass. On the ground, Faulk has played better because he is finally getting some rest thanks to first round pick Steven Jackson.
Based on raw performance, however, the improvement of the offense has not been enough to outweigh the poor performance on defense and special teams. When the Rams have lost, they’ve lost big, and when they’ve won, they’ve won small.
Thanks to St. Louis’s offensive reputation, however, the injuries to New England’s cornerbacks will get more attention than the injuries to Dillon and the offensive linemen. But in reality, Dillon and the offensive line are more important because of that defective St. Louis defense. It looks like Ashworth and Light will play against the Rams, while Dillon is still 50-50. If those players are healthy, it won’t matter that the Rams can pick apart the Patriots defense because the Patriots can pick apart the Rams defense in return.
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For the second straight week, Pittsburgh will attempt to deliver the first loss of the season to one of the best teams in the NFL. This game, wrote ESPN analyst Ron Jaworski in an Internet column yesterday, “will be an intriguing matchup between the Eagles’ excellent defensive unit and the Steelers’ superb offense.” That statement fits the public image of these two teams, but the usually reliable Jaworski could not be more wrong: In 2004, the Eagles have been the better offensive team, the Steelers the better defense. The Eagles have gained 44 more yards per game than the Steelers, and allowed 55 more yards per game.
It is difficult to think of the Steelers as a great defensive team because their biggest hole going into this season was inexperience in the secondary. But that inexperienced secondary has grown up in a hurry, ranking fifth in the NFL with 4.7 yards per pass allowed. The quality defense has made life easier for rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The average Pittsburgh offensive drive this year has started on the 32-yard line, third best in the league.
The biggest concern for the Pittsburgh defense is that they’ve faced very few star receivers this season – and had problems on the rare occasions they have. Cleveland’s Andre Davis caught five passes for 101 yards; Dallas’s Terry Glenn caught seven of 10 balls for 120 yards. Terrell Owens spells trouble, but with RB Brian Westbrook likely missing the game due to injury, the Steelers will be free to concentrate entirely on stopping him.
Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense has been overrated for two seasons now. Last year they were porous against the run; this season, they’ve improved to the level of uninspiring. Many observers feel that Roethlisberger will have trouble with the aggressive, blitz heavy scheme favored by Eagles coordinator Jim Johnson. This begs the question: Have these people been watching Roethlisberger play?
Under pressure, he has shown the same pocket presence, field awareness, and sense of calm that transformed Tom Brady from a sixth round pick into a Super Bowl MVP. He also has two great receivers – deep threat Plaxico Burress and the perennially underrated Hines Ward – who couldn’t be happier if left single-covered on a big blitz.
Ward and Owens are running neck and neck for the title of most valuable receiver of 2004,even if only one has gotten the press. Ward has caught 49 of the 55 passes thrown to him, an 89% rate; no other receiver in the NFL with more than 30 catches is higher than 70%. He has only two touchdown catches, but has caught 31 passes for first downs.
The Steelers hold the advantage both when they run and when they pass. The Eagles have the advantage on special teams with David Akers, the NFL’s best all-around kicker. Without their starting running back, the Philadelphia is left with a one-sided offense while the Steelers unleash a multifaceted attack against a mediocre defense.
Mr.Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.