Because of the ever-changing rosters in college football, the sport’s coaches are often its biggest stars. Rarely has that been truer than in tonight’s Orange Bowl matchup in Miami.

FEDEX ORANGE BOWL
NO. 3 PENN ST. (10-1) VS. NO. 22 FLORIDA ST. (8-4)
(Tonight, 8 p.m., ABC)

When Florida State takes on Penn State, Seminoles coach Bobby Bowden will be the junior statesman in the game. At 79, Penn State’s Joe Paterno has two years on his counterpart. But it is Bowden, with 359 wins, who stands six victories ahead of Paterno as the winningest coach in major college football history.

That order was reversed before Paterno’s teams struggled in recent seasons, allowing Bowden to pass the man with the funny glasses and the high pants. But 2005 saw the fortunes of the two programs reverse yet again, with Paterno ignoring the crescendoing calls for his retirement to lead the Lions to an unexpected 10-1 campaign. Bowden, meanwhile, is starting to hear those same calls after the Seminoles finished the regular season with a three-game losing streak.

But Bowden rallied his team to a surprising win over Virginia Tech in the first-ever ACC championship game to claim the conference’s Bowl Championship Series berth. At no. 22 in the BCS rankings, Florida State is by far the lowest-ranked team to qualify for a BCS game. But Bowden’s team will make no apologies for its inclusion, and has the talent to provide a worthy opponent for Penn State.

The film of that ACC championship should be mandatory viewing for the Penn State players leading up to this game, as there are at least two valuable lessons to be gleaned. First, it serves as a warning about the danger of taking Florida State lightly. This may not be a vintage Seminoles team, but it still has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, as well as experience playing in big games – something that is not in abundance on the Penn State sideline.

If the Nittany Lions take the field still dreaming about what could have been if not for a last-play loss to Michigan, they could find themselves wondering how a four-loss FSU team beat them. Second, the film offers clues to Florida State’s defensive strategy against mobile Virginia Tech quarterback Marcus Vick,a similar player to Penn State’s Michael Robinson.

With a standout performer at every level – defensive end Tamba Hali, linebacker Paul Posluszny, and cornerback Alan Zemaitis – Penn State has the bigger names on defense, but it was Florida State that was slightly more effective on that side of the ball. The Seminoles ranked 15th in total defense, vs. no. 17 for Penn State.That the Nittany Lions allowed far fewer points (16.5 per game vs. 21.7 for FSU) is largely attributable to turnovers.

Against Robinson and the Penn State offense, Florida State will need an outstanding push from its front four, led by defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley. Bunkley was perhaps the best interior pass rusher in the country this season, with nine sacks and 15 quarterback pressures.

Robinson’s mobility makes it dangerous to commit blitzers to the pass rush, as he has the ability to break containment and run free through the area vacated by the blitzing linebackers or use his legs to keep a play alive long enough for man coverage to break down.To combat Robinson’s many talents, Bunkley and his linemates will need to spend some quality time in the Penn State backfield and force Robinson into checkdown throws to his backs, leaving seven tacklers to clean up the play.

Unfortunately for Florida State, one of the players who mans those seven spots, leading tackler A.J. Nicholson, has been suspended for this game following allegations of sexual assault. His absence will mean some shuffling among the linebacker corps, with Buster Davis moving over to Nicholson’s weak-side spot from the middle and backup Sam McGrew manning Davis’s post. Ernie Sims, a ferocious hitter, remains in the strong-side spot and will have to avoid the temptation to stray from his responsibilities in order to help out on the weak side.

Penn State’s rushing attack doesn’t overwhelm,but it was very effective with Tony Hunt averaging 95 yards per game on six yards per carry. Robinson was the second-leading rusher on the team,gaining 785 yards on the ground and scoring 11 touchdowns, making him most dangerous inside the red zone.

If given time, Robinson should also be able to take some deep shots down the field. Though Penn State lost its most talented receiver, freshman Derrick Williams, to an injury in the Michigan game, Deon Butler stepped up to average nearly 19 yards per catch and grab nine touchdowns.

Penn State has a well-earned reputation as “Linebacker U,”a tradition being carried on this season by Posluszny, who is being hailed by some former Penn State greats as the best to ever play the position in State College. Posluszny has the speed to track down ball carriers from sideline to sideline and is a sure tackler once he arrives.Florida State has been terrible running the ball all year, and prospects don’t look a whole lot better against a Posluszny-led unit that allowed fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground.

For Florida State to have a chance to win, it must protect redshirt freshman quarterback Drew Weatherford, a tall order for a depleted offensive line facing the likes of Hali and his 11 sacks. Considering the beating Weatherford has taken this year after being thrown in as the starter in fall camp and the Seminoles’ lack of a running game (107th in the nation), he’s actually played very well. To beat Penn State, he’ll need his best game of the year, and most important, he’ll need to avoid the killer mistake. Sacks Florida State can recover from. Interceptions and sack/fumbles are a different story. The Penn State defense is an opportunistic one that will look for any chance to take the ball the other way.

If given the chance to throw, Weatherford does have weapons, particularly 6-foot-6-inch Greg Carr, who averaged 22 yards per catch with nine touchdowns. He’s likely to be covered by Zemaitis all day in what could be the best one-on-one matchup on the field.

Penn State is the better team on paper, and the old adages about slow, plodding northern teams don’t apply here. If Florida State feels it can win with superior speed, it’s likely in for a nasty surprise as Paterno will move one victory closer to reclaiming the top spot from Bowden.

Mr. Levine is a regular writer for FootballOutsiders.com.