The Knicks’ recent losses may push them out of the playoff picture, and one secondary casualty of the swoon is the potential Coach of the Year candidacy of Isiah Thomas.

Yes, that Isiah Thomas.

I’m not saying I’d have supported the candidacy, but Thomas might have had a nice case.

Let’s say that the Knicks had finished with a 38–44 record and made the playoffs. The record simply requires that they play .500 from the time when guard Jamal Crawford went out with an ankle injury (which followed the injury to David Lee and preceded the recurrence of guard Quentin Richardson’s back trouble.) If that scenario actually happened, then the case for Thomas would be surprisingly simple and elegant. He took over from a Hall of Fame coach and without an infusion of new personnel led the team to 65% more wins and the playoffs. Absent the numerous extenuating factors (such as poor starting lineup choices, weak in game clock management, and other coaching issues that voters show little sign of actually noticing), it would have been a strong case. But injuries have sent the team into a tailspin and should result in a record closer to 34–48, so we’ll be spared that bit of controversy.

But who should win the Coach of the Year? It’s a weak field. The coaches of this season’s three elite teams, Avery Johnson of the Dallas Mavericks, Mike D’Antoni of the Phoenix Suns, and Greg Poppovich of the San Antonio Spurs, have each won the Red Auerbach trophy once in the last four years, and nothing has changed substantially about their teams since they were last given the award. And no team has come out of nowhere to challenge the elite. Thus Coach of the Year will likely come down to a bunch of guys who wouldn’t ordinarily be anyone’s first choice.

Before we examine the prospects, let’s eliminate a few other candidates. Detroit’s Flip Saunders and Cleveland’s Mike Brown have — barring a blazing hot finish — led their teams to fewer wins than last season. Chicago’s Scott Skiles has a team that is continuing to improve, but now the Bulls are underperforming on expectations that they would soon move into the upper echelon of the league. Byron Scott of New Orleans/Oklahoma City is doing a good job, but his team has yet to break .500.

So who’s left? Utah’s Jerry Sloan, Houston’s Jeff Van Gundy, Golden State’s Don Nelson, and Toronto’s Sam Mitchell are the leading candidates. Let’s review the case for each man.

Sloan will be the sentimental choice. This is his 22nd season. He has more than 1,000 regular season wins, 78 playoff victories, and no Coach of the Year awards. His team is almost a mortal lock to post a double-digit increase in wins over last season’s 41–41 squad. These credentials should make Sloan a runaway favorite. In Sloan’s case, there is a key mitigating factor. One of the major differences in the Jazz this season over last is better team health. Their best player, forward Carlos Boozer, has played in all but eight games this season; he missed 51 last season.

That same complaint diminishes the case for Van Gundy. Last season, his two best players, center Yao Ming and swingman Tracy McGrady, combined to miss 60 games; this season they’ve missed only 41 so far and both are healthy (Houston fans may want to stop here and knock on wood) entering the stretch run. However, the difference between this year’s Rockets and last year’s model goes beyond personnel; it’s the offensive scheme. Last season, the Rockets were 13th in 3-pointers attempted and 27th in accuracy from behind the arc. This season they rank second in each category. The offense flows smoothly inside and outside, and that as much as better health has led the Rockets toward a 20-win improvement over 2005–06.

Nelson is a dark horse, but he’s on very good terms with the voters, having won the award on three previous occasions, 1982–83, 1984–85, and 1991–92. If he manages to guide Golden State to its first playoff appearance since 1994, then he will have a strong case. The Warriors are a mere one game out of the eighth and final playoff spot, behind the inconsistent Los Angeles Clippers. However, unless the Warriors finish very, very strong they will conclude the season with a losing mark, and savvy voters should notice that Golden State is not much better than the 34–48 teams of Nelson’s predecessor, Mike Montgomery, but that the bar for postseason entry is lower this season.

Mitchell is the only Eastern Conference coach with a ghost of a chance. His Raptors are on track to post a 17–19 win improvement over last season. The problem is that the roster has been completely made over. Although Mitchell deserves credit for making all the new pieces fit, most of the credit for the turnaround may go to the team president, Bryan Colangelo, who came on board about a year ago and shook things up. However, Mitchell has had a hand in key decisions. Early in the season the Raptors were one of the fastest paced teams in the NBA, averaging nearly 100 possessions a contest. The rapid tempo failed to produce an effective offense, and Mitchell had the team slow down to a moderate pace, its 94.7 possessions per game ranks 12th, and the team’s offense has improved markedly.

So who will win? My best guess is Sloan. I think the voters, absent any obvious choice, will rely on sentiment. If I had a vote, I’d cast mark my ballot Van Gundy one, Mitchell two, but I have no strenuous objection to Sloan winning it. His team has improved, and he’s shepherded the development of key players like forward Paul Millsap and guards Ronnie Brewer and Deron Williams. Thanks in part to Sloan, the Jazz are in position to be a very good team for a long time. I can’t prove he’s been the best coach this season, but he has accomplished something worth rewarding.

mjohnson@nysun.com