Handicapping Nets’ Race for No. 8 Spot
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If you didn’t understand why Eastern teams dread extended Western road trips, the Nets provided a fine example this past week. Not only was New Jersey’s trek through the Southwest Division fruitless in terms of victories — they lost all five games — but there wasn’t one night on which you could even say the Nets played well. New Jersey lost four of the five games by double figures, and the one they didn’t lose by that much was perhaps the worst of the bunch‚ Wednesday’s 100–93 loss to Memphis.
The Grizzlies had given up on the season a long time ago — they were just 4–23 in the 27 games before they’d played the Nets. New Jersey led them by 10 points in the second half, but somehow they fizzled against a Memphis zone. Even so, they entered the fourth quarter tied, and Memphis was 1–39 this year when tied or trailing entering the fourth. Er, make that 2–39.
Nonetheless, there’s one piece of good news buried somewhere deep in that train wreck of a road trip: The Nets are done traveling out West. They only have three games left all year against teams from the better conference, and all three are in the Swamp.
Moreover, the Nets barely lost any ground during their skid, because everyone else messed up too. Atlanta only leads the Nets by half a game, and New Jersey remains ahead of Chicago, Indiana, and Charlotte. Thus, in spite of how horribly they’ve played, New Jersey can still make the playoffs. And with games coming up next week against the Hawks and the Bulls, the Nets can quickly gain ground on their two nearest rivals.
The points above underline the big story down the stretch: We’ve reached the point in the season where the schedule counts as much as the quality of the team. In New Jersey’s case the schedule isn’t a big issue either way, as it has a fairly even split between home and road and between good teams and bad. The one bone the schedule-makers threw them is the season finale in Boston April 16 — the Celtics are likely to rest their starters that game to prepare for the playoffs.
But for some of the Nets’ other rivals, the schedule is a much bigger deal — and that, in turn, has implications for the Nets. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the remaining slate of the Nets’ adversaries for the no. 8 spot and what that might tell us about their odds of making the postseason.
ATLANTA: On paper, the Hawks are in the best position of anyone. They have the advantage in the standings and the easiest schedule of any of the five teams. Atlanta only plays five teams with a winning record the rest of the year, and all five are at home.
Between the schedule and the trade deadline acquisition of Mike Bibby, you’d think the Hawks would be an overwhelming favorite to run away from this group. If only things were that simple. Atlanta is only 11–24 since January 1 and 4–13 in its past 17 games, with increasingly horrific defense being the primary culprit. With the recent rumor that their general manager, Billy Knight, tried to fire their coach, Mike Woodson, three different times, one wonders if the Hawks have already quit on their embattled coach.
CHICAGO: Speaking of quitting on a coach, the Bulls are trying the rare feat of doing it twice in one season. After their early struggles led to the dismissal of coach Scott Skiles, the Bulls of late have been caught in a cycle of increasingly juvenile behavior under interim coach Jim Boylan. Most recently, forward Tyrus Thomas played hooky on a recent practice and guard Chris Duhon missed a pregame shoot-around because he was at the Duke-North Carolina game; both were suspended. Yet this still might be the best team of the bunch. The trade for Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden has given them more scoring punch, and they no longer feel obligated to play the rapidly declining but now-departed Ben Wallace in order to justify signing him two years ago. Chicago’s remaining schedule isn’t as soft as Atlanta’s, but the Bulls only have seven road games left and can make up ground with two games against the Hawks.
INDIANA: Like the Bulls, the Pacers are dealing with an endless stream of off-court problems — one that’s alienated their fans and made them last in attendance. The Pacers have struggled on-court too, with the continued absences of Jermaine O’Neal and Jamaal Tinsley the main reason. Indy is a measly 9–26 in its past 35 games, which is poor even by the standards of this group. However, the schedule gods have smiled on Indy: It only plays four teams with winning records the rest of the way. The Nets play a home-and-home with the Pacers on March 26 and 28, one that may effectively eliminate one or the other.
CHARLOTTE: They’re the only team in this list that’s playing well, so you’d like to see their efforts rewarded with a playoff spot. However, the deck is stacked against them. From here on out, they have the worst schedule by far. While they’ve won five straight and just welcomed back star forward Gerald Wallace, the ‘Cats play 15 of their final 19 games on the road, including seven against the dreaded Western Conference. Combined with a two-game deficit in the standings, that may prove too much to overcome no matter how lousy their so-called competition is.
jhollinger@nysun.com