Heading Into Home Stretch, Many Top Seeds Up for Grabs

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The New York Sun

Seven weeks of non-conference play and two months of conference tilts have told us a little about the women’s NCAA season; the next few days of conference tournament play will tell a lot more.

This much we know: Duke is the best team in the land. The Blue Devils could lose their first game in the ACC tournament and still be both the no. 1 seed in the Greensboro Regional and the no. 1 seed overall. The old titans of the game, UConn (27–2), and Tennessee (27–2) surprised many observers by going undefeated against tough conference slates, and they will earn two of the other no.1 seeds. The other top seed and all the no. 2s and 3s are up for grabs in the conference tournaments, which will play out during the next week leading up to Selection Monday, on the 12th.

The final no. 1 seed should be decided by the ACC tournament this weekend. The University of North Carolina (26–3) has the inside track. Two of the team’s three losses have come to Duke, and the other is excusable. It was at North Carolina State (21–8) in a game that saw Wolfpack coach, Kay Yow, returned to the sidelines after a battle with cancer and during which the school named the floor for her. UNC has beaten both Tennessee and UConn, but they could be nosed out for a no. 1 by Maryland (26–4) — three of the defending champions’ four losses have come to elite conference rivals. The Terrapins’ case would require that they avenge their losses to Duke and UNC in the tournament and, in particular, that they beat UNC handily. North Carolina State, Florida State (22–8), and Georgia Tech (19–10) will also be playing for seeding.

Although UConn could snooze through the Big East Tournament with no damage to their seeding, the games this weekend will be a substantial test to determine seedings for the other top teams. Rutgers (19–8), Louisville (24–6), Marquette (23–5), Notre Dame (19–9), and Pittsburgh (22–7) will be playing for bracket position; West Virginia (20–9), South Florida (19–10), and Seton Hall (18–10) are on the bubble. An early exit for any of these three could end their dancing dreams.

Balance at the top has taken the Big 12 Conference out of the discussion for no. 1 seeds, but Oklahoma, Texas A&M, and Baylor will all make formidable 2s and 3s as long as they make the semifinals of the tournament this week. Behind them is a scramble among Nebraska (22–8), Iowa State (21–9), Oklahoma State (20–9), Texas (17–13), and Texas Tech (15–14) with the bubble bursting for at least of two of these teams.

The Southeastern Conference has several teams that could do some bracket busting later this month. Louisiana State University (24–6), Vanderbilt (24–5), and Georgia (24–6) will all be playing to a two- or three-seed this weekend. Meanwhile, a crowded lot of bubble teams, including Mississippi (20–9), South Carolina (17–13), Mississippi State (17–12), Auburn (19–12), Kentucky (17–12), and Arkansas (18–12) will be vying for inclusion to the dance. The early losers can start planning their WNIT games immediately.

Despite Ohio State’s consistently high ranking, which all but guarantees the Buckeyes (26–2) a no. 2 seed, it has been an off year for the Big Ten. Only Purdue (25–5) and Michigan State (22–7) are locks for the field of 64. Illinois (18–10) or Wisconsin (18–11) could sneak in with a solid showing in the tournament.

The situation in the Big Ten is duplicated in the Atlantic 10. George Washington (25–2) is all but guaranteed a very high seed. Temple (23–6) and Xavier (23–7) should also plan to spend at least a weekend in the dance. The A-10 tournament will be a make or break moment for four schools with middling resumes: Charlotte (18–11), LaSalle (19–10), UMass (17–12), and St. Joe’s (16–12). Each will need to make the finals to assure themselves of a bid.

The top half of the Pacific 10 Conference is solid, led by Stanford (25–4), a perennial power with a weak track record this time of year. The Cardinal are followed by Arizona State (26–3) and Cal (22–7); both schools will make the big dance barring an embarrassing early upset in the conference tournament. Washington (18–11), USC (16–12), and Oregon (16–12) are all on the bubble.

Locally there are two important mid-major dramas to follow. Hofstra (22–6) is fourth in the surprisingly tough Colonial Athletic Association behind Old Dominion (19–8), Delaware (25–4) and James Madison (25–4). It would be unusual for a non-BCS conference to get four bids, but Hofstra has excellent credentials. Hofstra almost beat Baylor in Waco, and they beat Michigan State in East Lansing. The Pride’s play in the Colonial tournament next weekend could move them into the dance. Long Island University, Brooklyn (22–7), will need to win the Northeast conference tournament which takes place this weekend and next.

Just a few years ago, there were hardly 64 teams that deserved a shot at the title. Now, narrowing the field down to only 64 will involve great drama.

mjohnson@nysun.com


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