Heat Have Potential To Win (Come 2010)
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It’s hard for me to admit it, but I’m starting to feel sorry for the Miami Heat.
Normally, I’m ready to guffaw at any fallen giant — especially any fallen giant coached by Pat Riley. I didn’t like him when he was the coach of the “Showtime” Lakers in the 1980s, nor did I like the way he ducked out of his contract with the Knicks in the 1990s. I hated the way that Riley threw Stan Van Gundy under the bus in 2005, and I’ve always felt that the Heat got more than its share of the questionable calls en route to winning 2006 NBA Finals.
But the kind of public beat-down that they are presently absorbing is ridiculous. The Heat have lost 14 in a row, and many of the lowlights have come on national television: a 30-point drubbing by the mediocre Chicago Bulls, a 26-point blowout by the New Orleans Hornets, and a 14-point beating by Cleveland. Add in double-digit losses in Minnesota, Philadelphia, and Washington, and you have one of the ugliest losing streaks in a long time. Even by Knicks standards, the Heat streak is really bad. And it’s likely to get worse as San Antonio gets its annual rodeo road trip under way tonight at American Airlines Arena. If you add the Heat’s misery to the woes of the Dolphins and the Marlins, you kind of have a reverse Boston here.
But I like the idea of bad teams trying to fix themselves. It comes from growing up in Chicago in the early 1970s. (There wasn’t much to do with the sports teams other than fix them.) And, of course, in covering the Knicks now, I have plenty of chances to sharpen my improvement predictions. The Heat pose a particularly interesting case, since its best player, Dwyane Wade, can opt out of his contract in the summer of 2010 and become an unrestricted free agent. Can the team be rebuilt by then?
I don’t doubt that Wade has a great degree of loyalty to the city of Miami, but in 2010, he will be 28, and probably looking at his last really big NBA contract. Wade’s reckless style of ball has already taken its toll on his physique, and having to play the equivalent of one-on-five for the next couple of years isn’t going to make things any easier. He may not be thinking about endorsement potential, but his agent will certainly mention to Wade that he will make a lot more money on a winning team in a major market than he would with a 50-loss team in Miami.
But the Heat may not be consigned to wander in the wilderness for long. Rebuilding would seem like a dirty word, since some of the most notably rebuilt NBA teams — Chicago, Golden State, and Atlanta — all spent years stumbling over their feet before finally getting on the right track. If the Heat have to follow their examples, then Heat hoops fans might not see winning basketball until 2014 or so. But Miami doesn’t need to follow bad models: It can set a new example.
Let’s look at the 2010 Heat. Shaquille O’Neal will either have retired voluntarily, will have been forced to retire due to injuries, or will have been bought out of his contract by then, so he’s no longer a factor. The nucleus of the team will be Wade, plus this summer’s lottery pick and next summer’s lottery pick.
The first group of complementary players comes from this year’s unit. No, Smush Parker, Jason Williams, Ricky Davis, and Mark Blount need not apply, but the Heat have a nice smattering of young talent. Point guard Chris Quinn has played better than anyone expected, while forwards Dorell Wright and Daequan Cook look to be keepers. Power forward Udonis Haslem, who wants to play in Miami (he also wants to run for mayor of the city someday), is a first-rate power forward.
The next issue is the hard part. During Riley’s tenure in Miami, the Heat have had a fetish for disreputable veterans. Some of these signings, such as Gary Payton (at age 37), have proven useful. Most, though, have turned out like Parker, a bad idea in theory (he wasn’t that good with the Lakers), and an even worse one in practice (his off-court behavior has him on the outs with the team). Instead, the Heat will need to scour the D-League. Good teams find gems such as Houston Rockets forward Chuck Hayes and Golden State Warriors swingman Kelenna Azubuike. The team will also have to learn how to scout Europe, if not for its own players, then for players that other teams own the rights to but haven’t imported, such as Portland’s Rudy Fernandez, who is playing in Spain and would be caught in a backcourt logjam if he were on the Blazers. Lastly, someone in the organization needs to make friends with the team president of the Phoenix Suns, Steve Kerr. The Suns are always giving away first-round draft picks to avoid luxury tax penalties.
The Heat’s cap situation is good. Aside from O’Neal, there are no massive, unproductive contracts. Davis and Williams come off the books this summer, and Blount leaves in two years. There won’t be room for substantial free agent additions, but the team won’t feel the penalty of luxury taxes, either.
So, if Miami manages its personnel situation wisely in the summer of 2010, the team will have a nucleus of Wade and two lottery picks. Haslem, Wright, Cook, and several new imports will head a supporting cast. That should be enough to get the Heat back into the playoff hunt. It should also be enough to insure that Wade will want to stay in south Florida. And it will make it much easier for me to root against them again.
mjohnson@nysun.com