How does a team tell the difference between a player having a slow start and one who is being overmatched by big league pitching? Further, how patient should it be with a player getting off to a very slow start to his career?

The Mets find themselves in something of a predicament with their rookie second baseman, Anderson Hernandez. After an offensively fruitless call-up at the end of last season, Hernandez has begun the 2006 season in a similar fashion. Although a few more hits have fallen his way this time around, there is no indication that he has moved his game forward since late last season.

Through Wednesday, Hernandez ha six singles in 46 major league plate appearances with one walk. The Mets need to decide if they have seen all he has to give at this point or if he’s going to start improving.

Should they be more patient with the player than Hernandez himself is at the plate? In the relatively small sample sizes for his two seasons in the bigs, Hernandez is actually becoming less patient rather than more so.This development wouldn’t be so disturbing if there were some positive results involved. Last year, he saw 3.24 pitches per plate appearance (a figure that, had he qualified, would have placed him in the bottom five in the major leagues). He’s seeing even fewer pitches this season, knocking that number down to 2.74.

Clearly, Hernandez is getting himself out far too often.There are very few players who can make that approach to batting work. For every Vladimir Guerrero that flails away with authority, there are 10 players seeking jobs in other lines of employment because they failed to work counts.

In terms of recent history, Hernandez’s rough beginning is among the very worst. Looking at the slowest career beginnings since 1960 in terms of OPS (slugging average plus on-base average), Hernandez doesn’t have much competition.Through 50 plate appearances,only seven other players have managed a sub-.300 OPS to launch their careers:

By and large, this is not an inspiring group, but it must be pointed out that among the opposite 10 – those players with the hottest career starts since 1960 – there are also some players who didn’t exactly pan out.

Bo Hart, Jose Olivia, and Mark Quinn all began their time in the majors as though transferred down from a higher league, yet none had careers that lasted more than three years. Certainly Shawn Green has had a decent career,but more was expected of him offensively than is of Hernandez. Kirkpatrick also had a good career, but it must be remembered that he was barely out of high school when he got his first big league opportunity, so his early failings are more excusable than Hernandez’s.

Expanding the search to the 50 slowest starts since 1960, we can find a few names that hold out hope for Hernandez. Including Green, there is Royce Clayton, Kevin Bass, Carl Everett, Hal Morris, and Ray Fosse. Two former Mets middle infielders also appear on the expanded list. After a slow start (a .354 OPS after his first 50 plate appearances in the offense-depleted mid’60s), Bud Harrelson went on to play in 1,533 games and make two All-Star teams. Teodoro “Teddy” Martinez played in 643 games in all or part of nine seasons. Granted, it’s probably not very exciting for the Mets to discover they may have the next Teddy Martinez in their midst.

There are two ways to look at the Hernandez situation: 1) With things going as well as they are, the Mets can afford to give him time to work things out.2) Over the course of the season,the Mets are going to need every win they can lay their hands on and going with their best option at every position is essential.

With expensive import Kaz Matsui getting his rehab work in during extended spring training, all of this may soon prove to be moot. Certainly, had Hernandez hit the water smoothly rather than flailing and bailing he could have stolen the job away from the oftdinged Matsui. Demoting Hernandez at this point is the right call, but not to replace him with Matsui.

Interestingly, the Mets have a better option than either player just a phone call away. When Bret Boone was signed in the off-season, it seemed that young Jeff Keppinger would be sidetracked once again, this time by a player whose time had clearly passed. Boone’s timely retirement should have opened the door for Keppinger – a young player with far more upside than either Hernandez or Matsui – to get the second base job.

It should be noted that Keppinger’s projection is for 385 plate appearances, Hernandez’s is for 546 plate appearances, and Matsui’s projection is for 328 plate appearances. Which is to say, Keppinger projects to be more valuable than Hernandez at the plate in almost half the playing time, and projects to be twice as valuable as Matsui in roughly the same amount of time. Instead, Keppinger was third-tiered behind both of them and is doing time in Norfolk for the third year in a row. If nothing else by age 26, Keppinger at least deserves the roster spot of Jose Valentin, a 36-year-old who hasn’t been productive – or even healthy in a few years.

Mr. Baker is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. For more state-of-the-art commentary, visit baseballprospectus.com.