NFL MIDSEASON REPORTS – NFC WEST

Last year the Seattle Seahawks, powered by the best offensive line in football and an improving defense, coasted through the NFC West on the way to the Super Bowl. This year the Seahawks should win the division again, but their offensive line and defense have collapsed, and the team doesn’t look like a Super Bowl contender.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5–3)

Starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck and last year’s league MVP, running back Shaun Alexander, have both missed games, but that’s not the most important reason for the Seahawks’ decline. The biggest problem is the diminished offensive line

Seattle lost all-pro guard Steve Hutchinson to free agency and couldn’t find an adequate replacement. Right tackle Sean Locklear and guard Chris Spencer have been injured and ineffective. Playing behind that weakened line, Alexander averaged just 2.9 yards a carry in the three games before he got hurt. Only one offensive player, receiver Darrell Jackson (41 catches for 623 yards and six touchdowns) has performed up to his 2005 standards.

Two starting defensive backs from last year’s Super Bowl, Andre Dyson and Marquand Manuel, left as free agents, and a third, Michael Boulware, was demoted for poor play this season. As a result, Seattle’s pass defense has struggled all year, even though a free agent addition, outside linebacker Julian Peterson, has made a major impact with eight sacks.

The offensive line probably won’t get much better this year, but if Hasselbeck and Alexander are healthy down the stretch, the Seahawks are still the division favorites. With an easy schedule the rest of the way that includes just two games against teams with winning records, Seattle looks like a playoff team but a long shot to return to the Super Bowl.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (4–4)

Many analysts assumed that when head coach Mike Martz left, the offense would decline. In fact, the offense is playing much better under the direction of new coach Scott Linehan. But a bad defense will probably keep the Rams out of the playoffs.

Running back Steven Jackson is a good dual running-receiving threat, and he is better suited to Linehan’s offense than he was to Martz’s. In the Martz offense, the running back often had to line up as a wide receiver and outrun defensive backs. In Linehan’s system, Jackson catches short passes over the middle and only has to outrun linebackers. It works: Jackson’s 133 receiving yards against Kansas City on Sunday were more than Marshall Faulk ever had in Martz’s offense. Quarterback Marc Bulger also likes Linehan’s offense; he has big numbers connecting with receivers Torry Holt (624 receiving yards) and Isaac Bruce (554 receiving yards) while throwing just one interception.

However, all those offensive stars don’t mean much when the defense can’t stop anybody, and the Rams’ defense is allowing a league-worst 5.8 yards a play. With that kind of defense, the offense will have to win a lot of shootouts. If the Rams can upset Seattle this weekend, they’ll be tied for the division lead, but a loss would essentially cede the division to the Seahawks.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (3–5)

Quarterback Alex Smith, the 2005 first overall draft pick who looked like a major bust last year, is one of the pleasant surprises of 2006. His completion percentage, yards per throw, and touchdowns are all significantly up, while his interceptions, fumbles, and sacks are all significantly down.

Smith is one of the few bright spots, however. Running back Frank Gore has talent, but he fumbles so often (five times this season) that it diminishes his value. Injuries have limited tight end Vernon Davis, the fifth pick in this year’s draft, to just five catches.

The defense is a mess, especially on third downs, when the 49ers have allowed conversions a league-worst 49.1% of the time. Quarterbacks have an easy time picking apart the defense on third downs because San Francisco’s pass rush is almost nonexistent: Even against the woefully inept Oakland offensive line, San Francisco recorded just one sack.

The 49ers are better than they were last year, which doesn’t say much. With Smith in place, San Francisco has its franchise cornerstone. But there’s still a long road back to a winning record.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (1–7)

Can one game define a season? The Cardinals’ Week 6 loss to the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football is what everyone will remember about their 2006 campaign.

Arizona had playoff aspirations, but that won’t happen. This season’s biggest question: Can Matt Leinart develop into a good quarterback? His results have been mixed. He played very well against Chicago in that Monday night collapse, but in two losses since then he has looked like a typical rookie, completing just 40% of his passes, losing four turnovers, and getting sacked seven times.

If Leinart does develop, Arizona will have one of the league’s best passing games. Young receivers Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are big-play threats, although Fitzgerald has missed three games with a hamstring injury. Unfortunately, even with the passing game headed in the right direction, the running game is a disaster. Signing Edgerrin James from the Colts was the biggest mistake any team made in free agency, and the Cardinals’ line, especially guard Reggie Wells, simply can’t open any holes.

Safety Adrian Wilson would be a star if he played on a better team. Wilson has four sacks and three interceptions, and he shuts down opposing tight ends in pass coverage. But no matter how great a safety he is, he can’t make a defense great all by himself. Arizona’s defense is average at best.

Coach Dennis Green was brought in to lead the Cardinals to the playoffs, and he has failed. It’s highly unlikely that he’ll be back in Arizona after this year. Some day, Leinart will lead this team to the postseason. Green won’t be there to see it.

Projected order of finish: Seattle (9–7), St. Louis (8–8),San Francisco (5–11),Arizona (3–13).

Mr. Smith is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.