Hokies Take On Miami, BCS System
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Texas and USC have been trading places atop the Bowl Championship standings for the last three weeks, but the school with a chance to make a real move this week is no. 3 Virginia Tech. The Hokies have second-ranked Texas in their sights because the Longhorns have already played the toughest teams on their schedule, while Virginia Tech is just beginning its most trying stretch of the season, beginning with Saturday’s grudge match against no. 6 Miami.
If the Hokies can top the Hurricanes and win out against a schedule that also includes Virginia and a possible ACC title game against Florida State, they’ll challenge Texas in the six computer rankings that make up one-third of the BCS formula. But to jump the Longhorns for the coveted second spot, they’ll have to impress the human voters enough to move closer to the Longhorns than Texas is to consensus no. 1 USC. Got all that? No? You’re not the only one. The Hokies would be well advised to focus on beating Miami and not worry about winning “style points” with the voters. Here’s a look at that game and some other key contests this weekend.
TENNESSEE (3-4, 2-4) AT NO. 14 NOTRE DAME (5-2)
(Saturday, 2:30 p.m., NBC)
Notre Dame was off last week, but coach Charlie Weis kept himself busy by preparing for Tennessee and signing a controversial 10-year contract extension that is rumored to make him the wealthiest coach in college football after coaching all of seven games in South Bend. The Irish administration obviously feels Weis, a Notre Dame alum, is the man to meet the lofty expectations of the team’s fervent backers. The early signs have certainly been positive, and this game with Tennessee appears to be the last roadblock to a 9-2 season and a possible at-large berth in a BCS game.
Tennessee arrives in South Bend at the program’s lowest point in years. The Volunteers fell to 3-4 last week with a home loss to South Carolina, a loss made all the more painful because it came at the hands of the coach known in Knoxville as “Darth Visor” – ex-Florida guru Steve Spurrier. Offensive coordinator Randy Sanders served as the sacrificial lamb, giving up play-calling duties to head coach Phil Fulmer.
Not that Sanders didn’t deserve it; Tennessee’s offense is averaging 16 points a game, which ranks 108 out of 119 Division I-A schools. They’re 99th in total offense, 98th in rushing offense, 79th in passing offense, and 101st in passing efficiency.
On Saturday, Fulmer will turn back to quarterback Erik Ainge in search of some offense, but his fortunes will rest with the defense, which has maintained a high level of play despite the team’s struggles. The Vols’ defensive front will need to pressure Irish quarterback Brady Quinn, who has found his comfort level in recent weeks, and is coming off a record-setting performance against BYU.
If Tennessee allows Quinn time to throw, a bad season will get worse. But this is by far the best defense Notre Dame has faced this season, and it’s possible that Tennessee could hang around long enough to win a low-scoring affair, much as a struggling Notre Dame did last season to a Tennessee team that was on its way to the SEC title game.
NO. 14 WISCONSIN (8-1, 5-1) AT NO. 7 PENN STATE (8-1, 5-1)
(Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ABC)
Few pundits – including this writer – had this as the key game in the Big Ten this season, but the Badgers and Nittany Lions will take the field in Happy Valley each controlling their own destiny for the league title and an automatic BCS berth.
Penn State has rebounded nicely from its only loss, a last-play heartbreaker at Michigan three weeks ago, and has shrugged off the loss of standout freshman receiver Derrick Williams to score 96 points the last two weeks. Quarterback Michael Robinson has spread the ball around and carried it plenty himself, something he should have ample opportunity to do against Wisconsin’s porous defense. The last time the Badgers faced a mobile quarterback of Robinson’s caliber, Brett Basanez and Northwestern gained 674 yards in a 51-48 win on October 8.
On defense, the book on Wisconsin says to load up against the run – tailback Brian Calhoun is one of the nation’s best and is coming off a five-TD performance against Illinois – and force quarterback John Stocco to beat you with his arm. The Nittany Lions would appear to have the personnel to pull it off, with linebacker Paul Posluszny leading the way. Stocco is capable of delivering the big play, however, and it was his last second sneak that beat Michigan for the Badgers’ biggest win of the year.
One of the coaches in this game is hoping to win it so he can ride off into retirement with an unexpected conference title. The other is just hoping to re-establish his program among the nation’s elite. But the surprising twist is that it’s Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez who will move off the sideline after the season, while Penn State’s ageless Joe Paterno shows no signs of slowing down at age 78.
NO. 6 MIAMI (6-1, 3-1) AT VIRGINIA TECH (8-0, 5-0)
(Saturday, 7:45 p.m., ESPN)
Virginia Tech is in many ways becoming what Miami was during much of the 1980s and ’90s – a brash, bullying team that talks trash and makes no apologies as it buries opponents. Larry Coker has removed some of that element from Miami’s game in recent seasons, but it wouldn’t surprise anybody to see tensions running high when these teams meet in Blacksburg.
Miami and Virginia Tech are the nation’s top two defenses in yardage allowed, but quarterback Marcus Vick could give the Hokies the edge. More of a pocket passer than his famous older brother, Vick has become an efficient thrower who can still wreak havoc with his legs when the situation calls for it.
The winner here is virtually assured a spot in the ACC title game, but Virginia Tech has loftier goals, aiming to reel in Texas at the top of the BCS standings and get to the national title game. There’s a danger that the Hokies will play more against the poll voters than the Hurricanes and get caught up in trying to blow Miami out. That could play right into Miami’s hands, because the Hurricanes certainly aren’t afraid of playing in big games, despite a lack of recent success against Virginia Tech.
Miami is looking to do more than just play the spoiler here – the Hurricanes are the highest-ranked one-loss team in the BCS standings and could be in position to play in the Rose Bowl themselves with a win and some help.
Mr. Levine is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.