Hope Springs Eternal as NBA Enters Free-Ageny Period

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The New York Sun

Dare to dream, ladies and gentlemen.The off-season is here. And with the right moves anyone – even the Knicks – can become a champion with startling speed.

Let me start with a story. Three years ago, the Miami Heat were a shambles. Pat Riley had completely denuded the roster by giving insane contracts to veteran role players, then stepped down from coaching in frustration after leading what way have been the most boring team in the history of basketball to a 25-57 mark. Miami only had one good young player, forward Caron Butler, and the veterans weren’t much to write home about, either. Basically, the Heat were an expansion team.

But with a great draft pick and a few blockbuster moves, the Heat became NBA champions. They nabbed Dwyane Wade in the draft, of course, and that always helps. But they also signed Lamar Odom as a free agent the same summer, and parlayed him and Butler into Shaquille O’Neal a year later. Then they made the biggest trade in league history last summer to bring in Antoine Walker, James Posey, and Jason Williams this past off-season, and before you knew it they were having a parade down Biscayne Boulevard.

Many NBA teams are looking closely at the Heat’s example, and with good reason.The NBA is as tightly competitive as it has ever been. This was our fourth straight season without a repeat champion, and the fifth time in six years the team with the best regular-season record didn’t take the crown. The Heat took it a step further, with only the league’s fifthbest record during the regular season.In recent league history, the 1994-95 Rockets, with 47 wins, were the only champions to win fewer games than this season’s Heat (52).

And while Miami ended up the victor, you could make a plausible case that with a break here or a break there, several different teams could be wearing the crown. The Mavericks, obviously, feel things might have turned out differently had they hung on to that 13-point lead at the end of Game 3, or if the whistles had been kinder at the end of Game 5.

Then there’s San Antonio. The defending champs were up three points on Dallas in the final seconds of Game 7 in the conference semifinals before Manu Ginobili foolishly fouled Dirk Nowitzki on a drive to the rim, allowing the Mavs to send the game into overtime and prevail.

And what of Phoenix, who had halftime leads in five of the six games in the Western Conference finals against Dallas before running out of gas in the second half of three of them? Had Raja Bell not strained his calf in Game 2, might their story have turned out differently?

What of Detroit, whose offense fell of a cliff right around the time Rasheed Wallace sprained his ankle. Might the Pistons have given the Heat a tougher battle if their best post option was feeling more spry?

What, dare I say, about the Clippers, who had the Suns dead to rights before a horrible mistake in Game 5 allowed Bell to fire a game-tying 3-pointer and turn the series?

That’s why so many teams enter this summer thinking they can be the one holding the Larry O’Brien Trophy next June. We’ve been told for ages that dynasties are good for pro sports leagues, but I’m not buying it. Yes, Michael Jordan’s greatness was a spectacle, but it also made things far too predicable. About two weeks into the Bulls’ 72-10 march through the 1995-96 season, fans of other clubs pretty much knew that unless Jordan’s kneecaps fell off, their team was out of the title hunt.

Contrast that season with a decade later. All those teams above,and perhaps a few others, could make plausible cases for being championship quality. That’s a boon to the league, not a detriment. It wasn’t as obvious a year ago when the Spurs and Pistons were locked in a seven-game slugfest, but now that the Heat and Mavs brought us a more exciting brand of basketball this season it’s become as clear as Isiah Thomas’s complexion (and you thought I couldn’t say anything nice about him).

The dreaming phase began with Wednesday night’s draft, and continues this weekend as free agency gets underway. Teams can begin negotiating when the clock strikes midnight tonight, although contracts can’t be signed until July 11, giving the league’s accountants enough time to determine this year’s salary cap.

The Knicks and Nets aren’t likely to be major players in the early bidding because they don’t have room under the salary cap. However, once the five teams with cap space – the Bulls, Raptors, Hornets, Hawks, and Bobcats – have made their bids, the floor opens up to all the teams willing to use their mid-level exception.

It’s not a great market – Detroit’s Ben Wallace, Dallas’s Jason Terry, and Atlanta’s Al Harrington are the top names – but some clever team will find a diamond or two in the rough.One of those diamonds could be the Knicks’ Jackie Butler, an underrated restricted free agent.

And as I mentioned yesterday, the trade market has gone absolutely haywire. The hottest rumor making the round has the Sixers shopping Allen Iverson far and wide, with Boston apparently the most interested suitor. A.I. won’t be the only star on the market, though. If the Sixers deal the Answer, they’ll no doubt try to move Chris Webber, too. Indiana is looking to revamp its roster and Memphis, on the heels of Wednesday’s theft of Rudy Gay, may not be done dealing, either.

Thus, even in the wake of the Knicks’ coaching fiasco and the Nets’ playoff implosion against Miami, this is the one time of year when it’s possible to keep hope alive. Maybe Renaldo Balkman, Mardy Collins, Marcus Williams, and Josh Boone will turn out to be the four best rookies in the league. Perhaps Isiah will accidentally stumble upon a couple of good players when he trades Steve Francis and Maurice Taylor. Maybe Mile Ilic will solidify the Nets’ frontcourt and Rod Thorn will unearth the bench scorer that eluded New Jersey this season.

And maybe, just maybe, the Knicks and Nets will come out of the fray with much better teams than they had in 2005-06. Close your eyes, think of where the Heat were three years ago, and let your imagination wander.That’s what the off-season is for.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.


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