As far as misleading headlines go, this one was a doozy:

“Hornets Extend Lease Through 2014” proclaimed the press release, implying that New Orleans’s professional basketball team would be staying put for the foreseeable future.

Read the fine print, though, and a different story emerges. As part of the agreement, the Hornets can opt out of their lease at New Orleans Arena if attendance doesn’t average 14,735 in the 75 regular-season home games between December 1, 2007, and the end of the 2008–09 season.

The team has little chance of meeting that benchmark. In the nine games since December 1, New Orleans has only drawn an average of 12,592. Included in that sample were games against the Lakers, Suns, Pistons, Mavericks, and Cavs — five of the highest-drawing teams in the league.

To put the challenge into perspective, New Orleans had 15,605 show up on Wednesday night for the Lakers, who may be the league’s most popular team, thanks to Kobe Bryant. The Hornets would have to average nearly that amount over the next year and a half (15,027) to be required to stay in the city — and that includes games against the Grizzlies, Hawks, and T’wolves of the world.

Why would a city agree to such a deal? In a word: money. The city made a sweetheart deal with owner George Shinn to get the team to move from Charlotte in 2002, one that included a promise to build a $25 million practice facility. This new agreement relieves the city of that obligation and requires the Hornets to pay an additional $30 million if they want to leave.

Given all the rebuilding that still needs to be done in the Big Easy, we can all agree that $55 million could be put to a far greater civic use than a basketball franchise. Additionally, Shinn would need another $60 million to buy out minority owner Gary Chouest, a Louisianan who was no interest in relocation. Shinn’s not getting out cheaply.

The line has been drawn in the sand. Perhaps the people of New Orleans will appear in such great numbers that the Hornets will be compelled to stay for longer. Certainly they’ve been given a team worth watching: The Hornets are 23–12, and point guard Chris Paul has emerged as an MVP candidate.

More realistically, though, it seems the team will end up falling well short, the Hornets will pay their escape money, and the team will head for greener pastures — all of which has been expected for quite a while.

But if the NBA does walk away from New Orleans, it can leave with its head held high — which would be a notable departure from the way this same franchise screwed some of the league’s best fans in Charlotte. The league has invested heavily in the community since Hurricane Katrina, has made and continues to make a truly honest effort to have a viable New Orleans franchise, and will have its All-Star Game there this month as an added way to revive the local economy.

Even in leaving, it has given a verifiable target for the locals to hit if they’re really committed to keeping the team — an enlightened departure from the usual tactic of whining about a new stadium and packing up in the middle of the night.

Inevitably, though, it seems the Hornets are goners, which takes us to the next part of the conversation: Where would they go? One presumes the team’s first choice would be Oklahoma City, which so enthusiastically supported the team for two seasons in the wake of the hurricane. But the Seattle SuperSonics have already petitioned the league for the right to move there and could be playing in Tornado Alley as soon as next season.

The NBA has no shortage of viable candidates, though. Several cities have been looking to get into the league in the past few seasons, and now they will have a golden opportunity:

LAS VEGAS When it comes to Vegas, both the NBA and NHL are hyperventilating with excitement, yet simultaneously terrified (kind of like everybody at All-Star weekend last year). Anyway, it’s a moot point unless somebody volunteers to build an arena. It’s not certain the city would be that great for the NBA, to be honest, and the gambling issue is a big concern for the league. But everyone else sees nothing but dollar signs, and it’s certainly the best market without a pro sports franchise.

SEATTLE Hey, stranger things have happened. If the Sonics were to bolt from Seattle, they would leave behind a wealthy, attractive market just waiting for a new tenant to swoop in. As with the Sonics, a new arena remains the major hurdle.

KANSAS CITY Unlike the others, KC has a shiny new state-of-the-art arena waiting for a tenant, and it’s essentially a footrace between the NBA and NHL to see who can get there first. The city would prefer basketball if it can get it: If the Hornets have an interest, they might want to start winking and nudging now before hockey can swoop in on their turf.

ANAHEIM OR SAN JOSE It seems de rigueur to mention these cities, because everyone else does and they have both arenas and fans. But issues with current teams in the same metropolitan areas (Clippers and Lakers in the case of Anaheim, Warriors in the case of San Jose) are likely to muddy the waters.

Several other cities could get in on the game if they felt determined. Louisville is small, but it’s a great basketball town and it’s near another city (Cincinnati) that also lacks a winter sports team. It was also a close contender when the Grizzlies moved to Memphis. Speaking of the Grizzlies, Vancouver has a decent arena and is much more viable now that the loony is back above parity with the dollar. San Diego is a big city with no winter sports, and though it didn’t support the Clippers, really, who would have? St. Louis, Baltimore, Montreal — any of these cities could get in on the game if they were determined — they have over a year to get their act together.

But for the moment you have to handicap it as a two-horse race between Oklahoma City and Kansas City. Those are the ones with the proven assets — arenas, fans, and civic commitment — to make it happen. So, although the headlines blared that the Hornets would be in N’awlins until 2014, don’t believe it. They’ve got a year and a half of killing time before they possibly head for the plains.

jhollinger@nysun.com