The New Orleans Hornets and San Antonio Spurs meet in Game 7 on the Bayou tonight. The conventional wisdom is that you don’t pick against the defending champion in a do-or-die game — but there are too many reasons not to choose New Orleans.

These have been the home court playoffs, especially in the second round. Home teams have won 22 of the 24 conference semifinal games. Home court always has been a big advantage: The rims are friendlier (as was the case in Paul Pierce’s clinching free throw in Game 7 of the Cavaliers-Celtics series — the shot hit the back of the rim, bounced high in the air, and landed straight through the net); the officiating tends to be a bit more favorable, and it is always easier playing with 20,000 people cheering your every point. These advantages are magnified in a Game 7. In the NBA playoffs, home teams have won 80 of the 99 do-or-die matchups.

Defenders of the conventional wisdom will point out that the Spurs have substantial experience on their side. These Spurs have won a Game 7 of the NBA Finals (in 2005), and the core of their starting lineup — pivotman Tim Duncan, point guard Tony Parker, swingman Manu Ginobili, and ace defender Bruce Bowen — have played dozens of key playoff games together. Their bench is ful of wily veterans, such as Robert Horry and Kurt Thomas, who aren’t daunted by pressure.

By contrast, the Hornets are a bit light on playoff experience. Only starting forward Peja Stojakovic and reserve guard Bobby Jackson have played in the conference finals before; center Tyson Chandler, guard Morris Peterson, and reserve swingman Bonzi Wells have played in a first-round series here or there, but they have gone no deeper into the postseason.

But experience isn’t everything in these kinds of games. The fabled Knicks of 1969-70 were in their first NBA Finals, playing a Los Angeles Lakers team that probably included finals tickets as part of their season-ticket plans. In the 1960s, the Lakers made the finals seven times. Nonetheless, the Knicks won that Game 7.

Hornets fans have another reason to be confident: point guard Chris Paul. The Hornets guard has had a season for the ages. Paul averaged 21.1 points, 11.6 assists, and four rebounds per game while shooting 48.8% from the field. Magic Johnson was the last point guard to put up such incredible numbers. The comparison is interesting since Magic’s exploits in his first visit to the postseason are legendary, and while the 6-foot Paul won’t be able to play center (as Magic did filling in for an injured Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), he brings the same level of fearlessness, flair, and court savvy to the game.

When I saw the schedule for this series and noticed the four-day break between Games 6 and 7, I thought that it favored San Antonio, figuring that the veterans of the Spurs would benefit from the extra days off. But now, that break benefits the Hornets. With Chandler and forward David West nursing injuries, the extra time off will give them a good chance to be 100% or close to it for tonight’s game. The additional time will also give Hornets coach Byron Scott time to counsel his team about the Spurs’ physical play. San Antonio players got under the skin of West and Chandler on Thursday. But in 1984, Scott was a member of a Lakers team that lost their cool in the finals after some physical play from Boston and squandered a chance at a title that year.

Six games in two weeks isn’t much of a sample size to base a judgment on, but in a playoff series, it’s the most you can get. The Hornets have beaten the Spurs three times in New Orleans, and the victory margins were big. They won Game 1 by 19 points and romped in Games 2 and 5 by 22. I’m not saying that San Antonio can’t win tonight, but everything in the numbers points to a big time party in New Orleans tonight.

Get a good look at the Spurs if they lose — next year’s team is likely to be substantially different. Most of the Spurs’ key complementary players are ancient by NBA standards and in the final year of their contracts. For instance, Horry (who richly deserves the name “cheap shot Bob” after his hit on David West in Thursday’s game) is 37. Starting guard Michael Finley is 35. Starting forward Fabricio Oberto is 33. The Spurs will have to start a major retooling of the franchise.

They won’t look to develop rookies, either. Their core is also getting old. Duncan is 32, and Ginobili is 30 (and his reckless style of play might lead to an early decline in his skills). It will be a big job ahead for the Spurs’ front office. As long as their big three are together, the Spurs will always be a force, but in the rapidly changing Western Conference, they may be making a Dallas-like move from championship contender to playoff perennial.

In other words, tonight’s game might mark more than another chapter in a rising New Orleans franchise. It could be the changing of the guard in Western Conference.

mjohnson@nysun.com