The Giants can beat the Patriots.

Not many people think the Giants will beat New England in Super Bowl XLII, but they can win, and their best chance of doing so is to rely on a simple game plan: Run the ball early, run the ball often, and don’t stop running the ball, even if the circumstances of the game would ordinarily call for passing.

The Patriots would seem to have the advantage in almost every phase of the game. Statistically, the Patriots’ pass offense is better than the Giants’ pass defense, the Patriots’ run offense is better than the Giants’ run defense, the Patriots’ pass defense is better than the Giants’ pass offense, and the Patriots are better than the Giants on special teams.

But the Giants’ running game matches up favorably with the Patriots’ run defense. By just about any measure, the Giants’ running attack was one of the best in the league this season. They ranked fourth in the league in rushing yards, tied for third in yards per carry, and tied for fourth in rushing first downs. The Patriots, meanwhile, have been thoroughly mediocre at stopping the run: Although they ranked 10th in total rushing yards allowed, that’s mostly because their opponents abandoned the run when they fell behind late in games. When opposing teams did run against the Patriots, they were fairly successful: The Patriots ranked just 26th in the league, allowing 4.4 yards a carry.

It might seem counterintuitive to say that, if the Giants are going to win, they’re going to do it on the ground. After all, when the Giants played the Patriots at the end of the regular season, quarterback Eli Manning had one of his best passing games, completing 22 of 32 passes for 251 yards, with four touchdowns and just one interception. Plaxico Burress caught four passes for 82 yards and two touchdowns. The Giants called twice as many passing plays as running plays and moved the ball well.

But as strong as the Giants’ offensive game plan was in their 38–35 loss to New England, the Giants’ biggest strategic mistake that Saturday night at the Meadowlands was turning away from the running game at exactly the time they should have turned to it. The Giants took a 28–16 lead over the Patriots midway through the third quarter of that game on the strength of a seven-play, 60-yard touchdown drive, a drive that included runs by Brandon Jacobs of 16 and 15 yards. From that point on, the Giants should have tried to win the game on the ground. Instead, they came out passing, with only one handoff on the next two possessions, both of which ended with punts. Another possession ended with an interception, and by the next time the Giants got the ball they had fallen behind by 10 points late in the fourth quarter and had to throw the rest of the way.

Would the Giants have beaten the Patriots if they had called more running plays? Maybe they would have and maybe they wouldn’t. But there’s a big reason to think the Giants’ running game can be more effective against the Patriots in the Super Bowl than it was in the regular season finale: Ahmad Bradshaw.

Bradshaw, the Giants’ dynamic rookie running back, sat out the game against New England with a calf injury. But in the Giants’ three playoff games, and in their victory over the Buffalo Bills the week before they played New England, Bradshaw has been their most effective runner. In those four games, Bradshaw ran 56 times for 314 yards, or 5.6 yards a carry. Jacobs ran 72 times for 300 yards, or 4.2 yards a carry. Jacobs is still a good runner, but he seems to have worn down toward the end of a long season. Bradshaw has fresh legs, and he’ll be fully healthy in the Super Bowl. That means the Giants will have the one–two punch of Jacobs’s power and Bradshaw’s speed on Super Sunday that they didn’t have against New England the first time around.

The Patriots’ defense has stiffened against the run a bit in New England’s two playoff wins, allowing 80 yards on 22 carries against the Jacksonville Jaguars and 104 yards on 22 carries against the San Diego Chargers. But those are merely good defensive performances, not dominant ones. And New England also caught a big break in the AFC Championship game when an injury to Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson limited him to two carries. Had Tomlinson played, could it have been the Chargers, not the Patriots, who would be meeting the Giants in the Super Bowl?

Probably not. The Patriots are so good that even a team as good as the Chargers, with a running back as great as Tomlinson is when he’s healthy, wouldn’t be expected to beat them. However, the closest any team has come to beating New England was the Baltimore Ravens, and they did it on the strength of a 138-yard rushing performance by their running back, Willis McGahee, on Monday Night Football in the 13th week of the season. If McGahee can move the ball against the Patriots, surely Jacobs and Bradshaw can, too.

And yet, for as well as McGahee played, the Ravens lost, just as every team to play the Patriots has. A strong running game doesn’t give the Giants a great chance against the Patriots, who are undefeated and two-touchdown favorites for a reason. But it does give them their best chance.

Mr. Smith is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.