No, you’re not dreaming – 48 hours from now, either Wichita State or George Mason will be playing for a spot in the Final Four. For one of them, the magical Cinderella ride is going to continue thanks to a friendly confluence of upsets, leaving the Shockers and the Patriots paired against each other in the Sweet 16.The winner will play Connecticut or Washington in the Oakland regional final on Sunday.

WASHINGTON, D.C. REGION
(11) G. Mason vs. (7) Wichita St. (7:27 p.m.)

Tonight’s contest pits two teams that are hardly known nationwide, but that epitomize the surprising strength this season of two heretofore lightly regarded conferences – the Missouri Valley and the Colonial. I’ve already expounded on the wonders of the MVC, but the CAA has reason to puff its chest out as well. The league received two NCAA bids for the first time in two decades, and neither of them were of the undeserving-team-that-magically-won-its-conference-tournament variety. (The CAA’s other team, NC-Wilmington, lost in overtime to George Washington in the opening round).

Though seeded 11th compared to Wichita State’s seventh, George Mason has had the more impressive tournament thus far. The Patriots knocked off half of last year’s Final Four with opening round wins over Michigan State and North Carolina, defeating the Spartans even though second-leading scorer Tony Skinn was suspended.

GMU may also have a mental edge stemming from its 70-67 victory over the Shockers in Wichita last month. Skinn punished the Shockers with 23 points, capped by a 3-pointer with 10.8 seconds left for the win. He could do it again, as he’ll have a size edge on WSU’s diminutive Matt Braeuer.

I like George Mason to beat Wichita State again, but it’ll need to hold its own in the paint. Wichita State’s Paul Miller and Kyle Wilson combined for 29 points in the first meeting. GMU doesn’t have a starter taller than 6-foot-7, while Miller is 6-foot-10, 260 pounds and Wilson is 6-foot-8, 235, so the duo could do serious damage inside tonight. The Shockers will need that, plus some strong outside shooting from long-range specialist Sean Ogirri, to offset the Patriots’ advantage in the backcourt.

The winner probably will see its Cinderella run end on Sunday, but keep in mind that anything can happen in a single-elimination tournament.

(1) Connecticut vs. (5) Washington (9:57 p.m.)

I’ll take the Huskies in this one (rimshot).They may share a nickname, but these two teams couldn’t be more different. UConn is a powerhouse, with two big shot-blockers inside in Hilton Armstrong and Josh Boone and additional size in explosive small forward Rudy Gay.

Analysts routinely describe UConn as the most talented team in college hoops; Boone, Armstrong, Gay, and point guard Marcus Williams all have NBA futures. It’s an experienced club as well, with four upperclassmen in the starting lineup and another senior, super-sub Rashad Anderson, ranking second on the team in scoring. However, they’ve appeared weirdly lifeless in some games, most recently in a Big East tournament loss to Syracuse, and barely survived a second round meeting with Kentucky.

Washington gets by more on speed than power. Their “big men,” 6-foot-8-inch Mike Jensen and 6-foot-7-inch John Brockman, will be completely overmatched by UConn’s size, so it’s imperative for UW to make this game a track meet. If they do, wingmen Brandon Ray and Bobby Jones can take advantage. Roy is particularly dominant, averaging 20.2 points a game on 51.3% shooting; it will up to UConn defensive specialist Denham Brown to keep in check.

Don’t be surprised if the guys from the Northwest go small by bringing in guards Ryan Appleby or Joel Smith for Brockman in an effort to rev up the pace even further. I doubt they can succeed, but Connecticut’s recent penchant for underachieving leaves room for hope.

MINNEAPOLIS REGION
(1) Villanova vs. (4) Boston College (7:10 p.m.)

If UConn vs. Washington is power against speed, then this game is a sledgehammer against a butterfly. The Wildcats became a no. 1 seed with an unorthodox style, starting four guards and shooting the lights out. Those four – Randy Foye, Allen Ray, Mike Nardi, and Kyle Lowry – combine for a whopping 61 points per game, necessitating little contribution from their teammates.

But don’t be fooled – ‘Nova can play smashmouth when it has to. 7-footer Chris Charles and 6-foot-9-inch widebodies Dante Cunningham and Jason Fraser are lurking on the bench, and Wildcats coach Jay Wright used them heavily in a second-round win over Arizona.

He may need them again in this game if the Eagles are overwhelming Villanova in the paint. BC is aptly named, because its stone-age offense seeks to cram the ball into post players Craig Smith and Jared Dudley. Guards Sean Marshall, Tyrese Wright, and Louis Hinnant will have to keep Villanova’s defense honest with their 3-point shooting, but the more important matchup may be defensively.

Marshall, at 6-foot-6, 212 pounds, and Dudley, at 6-foot-7, 225, will each have to stay with one of Villanova’s pesky guards and avoid fouling. The alternative is a dangerous one – playing a zone and letting ‘Nova pick them apart from outside.

(3) Florida vs. (7) Georgetown (7:27 p.m.)

After breezing to victories in their first two games,the Gators get a very different matchup in this one. While Florida’s first two opponents tried to press with little success, the Hoyas rely on their immense size and gritty halfcourt defense to stifle opponents. The frontcourt of 7-foot-2-inch Roy Hibbert, 6-foot-9-inch Jeff Green, and 6-foot-9-inch Brandon Bowman should help neutralize Florida’s potent duo of 6-foot-11-inch Joakim Noah and 6-foot-9-inch Al Horford, so it will be up to Florida’s guards to provide the difference.

The focus, then, should be on the Gators’ Taurean Green and Corey Brewer. Brewer is a talented 6-foot-8-inch swingman, but his jumper comes and goes and he won’t be able to score inside against Georgetown. Green, Florida’s second-leading scorer, is a better marksman from long range, but struggled in Florida’s first two NCAA games.At least one of them needs to deliver tonight.

The Hoyas need to score too,of course, and they may have considerable trouble doing so. Their offensive weapons are very limited; opponents normally sag in on their big men and dare them to shoot. Hibbert, however, has come on strong of late and has been a monster in the tournament, averaging 18.5 points and 11.5 boards in two wins. If he can score inside and pile up fouls on Noah and Horford, the Hoyas have a shot at the upset.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast.