It’s the single most predictable scenario in all of professional sports. In nine of the past 10 years, the Yankees and Red Sox have battled it out for the AL East division title. The Blue Jays, Orioles, and (Devil) Rays have been left to fight over the scraps.

Listen to some pundits and they’ll tell you that decade-long streak could end in 2008. The Jays may have the best starting rotation in baseball and could be primed to take the next step. The Rays are a hot sleeper pick, with an army of young talent looking ready to break out. The Orioles, everyone’s pick for the cellar, are in first place. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Red Sox are plagued with multiple question marks, fretting over players who look either too young or too old.

But for the division’s second citizens to overtake the perennial winners, a number of factors will have to fall into place. With the Yankees and Red Sox starting their second series of the season tonight, here’s how the two superpowers and their rivals stack up this season (teams presented in order of last year’s standings).

BOSTON RED SOX

WILL WIN IF: Josh Beckett duplicates his 2007 season. Was his early-season DL stint a ploy to get the Red Sox ace out of a long trip to Japan or the result of a legitimate back injury that could act up as the season wears on? Daisuke Matsuzaka is 3–0 with a 2.70 ERA and about a strikeout an inning to start the season. But the Sox need 32-plus starts and an ace-caliber performance out of Beckett to win the East.

WILL LOSE IF: David Ortiz’s career goes the Mo Vaughn route. Baseball history is littered with stories of big, barrel-chested sluggers who’ve seen their performance fall off a cliff at an early age. Coming off the best year of his career, Ortiz is 5 for 48 with one homer to start the 2008 season, raising concerns that a lingering knee injury may be forcing him to take a more upright batting stance, messing with his swing. It’s hard not to look at Ortiz and think of Vaughn, another big, lefty Boston slugger whose career declined dramatically. If Big Papi’s struggles persist, the Red Sox don’t have enough power to win this loaded division.

NEW YORK YANKEES

WILL WIN IF: The young pitching pans out. Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy are off to rough starts this year. But Hughes in particular has both the stuff and the minor league track record to succeed at the big league level — it’s just a question of when it will happen. There’s a potential chain-reaction effect on the Yankees’ staff. If Hughes or Kennedy don’t pan out or Andy Pettitte’s balky elbow gets the best of him, the Bombers could consider moving Joba Chamberlain to the rotation. Underrated and talented newcomer Jonathan Albaladejo has a chance to become a very good setup man if the team lets him, which could make it easier to get Chamberlain in the rotation where he belongs.

WILL LOSE IF: The team’s veteran hitters show their age. Already, the normally durable Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada have battled injuries. Jason Giambi’s been declining for a while now, Johnny Damon looks like a Punch-and-Judy hitter and Bobby Abreu hasn’t topped 20 homers in three years. The offense will be good, no matter what. But it needs to be great for the Yankees to win it.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

WILL WIN IF: Vernon Wells becomes the superstar the team’s been waiting for. He’s off to that kind of start this season, hitting .333 AVG/.400 OBP/.556 SLG and leading the team in most offensive categories. Last year, Frank Thomas led the team with an .857 OPS. Meanwhile, Wells posted a terrible line of .254/.304/.402. Alexis Rios is a rising star, but the team needs another frontline hitter to compete against the big boys. Wells has a spotty track record, but he’s also the best bet to be that second big hitter they need.

WILL LOSE IF: Something happens to the starting rotation. On paper, Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, and Shaun Marcum form a terrific front four in Toronto. But if Burnett’s health doesn’t hold up, Halladay’s falling strikeout rate comes back to bite him, or McGowan and Marcum pull back after big steps forward last year, the Jays don’t have enough offense to compensate.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

WILL WIN IF: The team jumps into a flying DeLorean and travels back to 1997. Despite an 8–5, first-place start, the Orioles will do well to win 70 games this year. The O’s should have two goals this year: Get continued development for future stars like Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, and convert veterans such as Brian Roberts, Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar, and George Sherrill into young talent that can contribute to the next winning team in Baltimore. The longer the vets produce, the higher their trade value could become.

WILL LOSE IF: Peter Angelos gets in the way. It’ll be interesting to see if new man in charge Andy MacPhail retains the autonomy to trade veterans for prospects. It’s a move that’s long overdue for an Orioles team that hasn’t had a winning season in 11 years, but Angelos always seems to get in the way. The off-season trade of Miguel Tejada bodes well.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

WILL WIN IF: Scott Kamzir and Matt Garza never get injured. The Rays actually had an outside chance to compete for the playoffs this year, given how good starting pitchers Kazmir and James Shields and top hitters Carlos Peña, B.J. Upton, and Carl Crawford are, and how good top young talent such as Garza, Evan Longoria, and others could become. The goal is to give the young guys a chance to develop, and hope that things such as Edwin Jackson’s 2–0, 0.64 ERA start are for real.

WILL LOSE IF: Kazmir’s elbow injury proves to be more serious than it looks. There’s a ton of topflight pitching talent coming up in the minors, and Shields, Garza, Jackson, and company should be solid contributors in their own right. But Kazmir has the ability to contend for multiple Cy Young awards. If he’s felled by injuries, the Rays lose their ace, and also miss the chance to trade him before free agency, should they choose the blockbuster route.

Mr. Keri (jonahkeri@gmail.com) is a writer for ESPN.com’s Page 2.