How To Beat Roger Federer

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

WIMBLEDON, England – Marat Safin beat him with power, Richard Gasquet with panache, and Rafael Nadal with incredible footwork and heavy topspin. In tennis, playing Roger Federer is the greatest test, and winning the ultimate achievement. This year, everyone other than these three men has flunked.


As the final weekend of Wimbledon approaches, Federer looks as formidable as ever. He is 56-3 this season – yet he will be the first to tell you that he is disappointed in his failure to win a Grand Slam thus far. He can redeem himself with two more victories at the All England Club, which would make him the eighth player in history to win Wimbledon three straight years.


Can Federer be stopped? Lleyton Hewitt will give it his best shot in today’s semifinal. As daunting as the task might be, Hewitt is hopeful.


“You still go out there and try and make him not play his best tennis,” said Hewitt, who has lost his last seven matches to Federer. “You know, you’ve got to look for it. He doesn’t have a lot of big weaknesses out there, but you’ve got to try and pin something down.”


If Hewitt has something up his sleeve, he is keeping it a secret. “I won’t be telling you,” he said.


At first blush, the world no. 1’s recent performances would seem to provide little in the way of opportunities for Hewitt to exploit. Two of Federer’s losses this year came on clay, his worst surface, and the other was on the Australian Open hard court against the immensely talented Safin, who played his best and still came within a point of losing. At Wimbledon, Federer has lost just one set in five matches, serving with remarkable consistency and returning exceptionally well. Though he has approached the net less frequently than he did during his first championship run, he succeeds when he does.


Still, a closer look at detailed statistical reports of Federer’s five Wimbledon matches offers some small glimpses of vulnerability. While the analysis of tennis statistics is still in its infancy, Wimbledon compiles a unique and largely untapped body of data that allows for a closer look at Federer’s game, the most well-rounded in the sport.


On his serve, Federer has faced just 15 break points at Wimbledon and saved 10 of them. When Federer has put his first serve in play (67%), he has won the point 79% of the time. More impressive, he has won points on his second serve 63% of the time. For the season, excluding Wimbledon, Federer has won 76% of first-serve points and 60% of second-serve points. Though others on the tour win more first serves, no one else is above 57% on his second serve.


If the dogged and consistent Hewitt can bring those numbers down slightly and work himself into rallies, he likes his chances against Federer from the baseline. Considering their styles of play, it’s reasonable – at first glance – to give Hewitt an edge over Federer in those circumstances.


So far at Wimbledon, however, Federer has outdone each of his opponents in that department, including Juan Carlos Ferrero, the man who won a baseline battle against Andre Agassi at the 2003 U.S. Open on his way to the final. In total, Federer has won 55% of points that ended with both players at the baseline; Hewitt, in comparison, has won 61% (he has also played 71 fewer of them, having faced Justin Gimelstob and Taylor Dent, two serve and volleyers, in successive matches). In short, Hewitt may have a small advantage at the baseline, but as he himself said of playing Federer, “You’re not going to get a whole heap.”


Probably more important for Hewitt, or whoever might face Federer in the final, is the extensive data Wimbledon compiles on players’ tendencies when serving and returning. Those are the places where tennis matches are most often won, especially on grass.


In Federer’s case, there are clear patterns. First, his return. As it turns out, serving to Federer’s forehand – considered one of the most lethal in the world – is not necessarily a bad tactic, at least over the last five matches at Wimbledon. While he has won slightly more points on serves to his forehand than to his backhand once he has put a return in play (55% to 53%), he actually has put fewer forehand returns in play (69%, compared to 75% on the backhand). The implication is that Federer is trying for more on his forehand returns, and therefore is more prone to mistakes. On the backhand, he will more predictably put the ball in play and take it from there.


As for his serve, Federer is a model of smart technique. His first serve averages around 117 mph, and he rarely strays from that speed (his fastest serve for the tournament is 130 mph). On his second serve, Federer predominantly challenges his opponent’s backhand: up the center line on the deuce court (57%) and outside on the ad court (66%). On the deuce court, however, he is adept at mixing in a slice serve to the forehand when an opponent might expect another kick serve to the backhand. So far, Federer has surprised his opponents 16 times with second serves wide to the forehand on the deuce court. He has won 12 of those points (75%).


So what might all this mean for Mr. Hewitt? Serve big, serve consistently, and do not be afraid to test Federer’s forehand return, especially with a lead, when it’s worth gambling for a service return mistake. Then, sit on the backhand return on second serves but keep an eye out for the slice on the deuce court, all the while trying to keep Federer at the baseline as long as possible. Oh yes, and hope he breaks a leg.


The New York Sun

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