In a wild card weekend marked by upsets, one game went very much according to expectations: Denver’s 49-24 loss to Indianapolis. And while the Colts now face a week of questions about their recent difficulties beating New England, the team they leave behind has questions of its own.

It seems like NFL teams randomly rise and fall each season, but the Broncos have been remarkably consistent for the past five years while never reaching a level of greatness. The Broncos have not had a losing record since 1999, but haven’t won their division or a playoff game since John Elway’s retirement after the 1998 season.

The last two seasons are uncanny duplicates. For two straight years the Broncos have gone 10-6, won a wild card, and been blown out by Indianapolis in the first round of the playoffs. Last year Denver outscored regular-season opponents 381-301; this year, it was 381-304.

Most football observers have marveled at Mike Shanahan’s ability to stick an unknown player into his backfield to produce a new 1,000-yard rusher seemingly at will. But the less appealing aspects of this team, including the inconsistent passing game and poor special teams, have also stagnated.

For three straight years, the Broncos have ranked better in both yards gained and allowed than in points gained and allowed. The main reason is their poor turnover margin, particularly when it comes to interceptions. Frustrated with the inconsistency of quarterback Brian Griese after four seasons without a playoff win, Shanahan brought in Jake Plummer as a free agent last year. Plummer has frustrated Denver fans even more than Griese did, and the results have been no different.

Nonetheless, the Broncos did make some improvements this year. Although it certainly wasn’t apparent during Sunday’s shellacking by the Colts, the Denver defense took a step forward following the trade acquisition of Champ Bailey. The Pro Bowl cornerback can only do so much, of course; while he covered Marvin Harrison closely on Sunday, the Colts repeatedly picked on undrafted rookie cornerback Roc Alexander, who was stuck covering Reggie Wayne. Most of Denver’s losses this season came against teams with multiple talented wideouts, who exploited Denver’s clear weakness by covering whichever receiver was not Bailey’s responsibility.

Can the Broncos fill this hole? They don’t have a Clinton Portis-sized trading chip again, and they don’t have much salary cap room to sign a big-name free agent. In fact, most of Denver’s own free agents are on the defense, including three-fourths of the defensive line.

Denver can look to young players, but their repeated first round playoff exits have resulted in a poor draft position. And for every late first-round find like this year’s rookie standout, linebacker D.J. Williams, there’s a late first-rounder who doesn’t live up to expectations, like 2001’s first pick, corner Willie Middlebrooks.

The Broncos’ defense isn’t the only unit that needs help, either. Like most older wide receivers, Rod Smith enjoyed a strong 2004 because of his ability to take advantage of the new emphasis on illegal contact, but at age 35, he’ll probably decline next year. Ashley Lelie is a strong no. 2 receiver but doesn’t look like he’ll ever be a true no. 1 target. And while Tatum Bell will probably be ready to take over as the starting running back, meaning yet another new 1,000-yard rusher in Denver, Plummer will likely continue his maddening ways, mixing amazing plays where he scrambles and fires a bullet to an open receiver with foolhardy interceptions that fill the television repair shops of Colorado with shoe smashed picture tubes.

There’s no doubt that Denver has plenty of good players. Their offensive line is solid, Williams and Al Wilson are strong linebackers, Bailey is an impact corner, and Bell and Reuben Droughns provide a great running back combination. But with little salary cap room and a poor draft position, they can’t add impact players.

The Broncos needs to shake things up in a way that creates small improvements from the players already there. That means using players in new schemes and motivating them in new ways – in other words, it is time to consider changing the head coach.

Overzealous fans always call for a coaching change when they are frustrated with the direction of their team, and Denver fans have a habit of blaming Shanahan for things that aren’t directly his fault, from the failures of specific players to plain old bad luck. It’s not that there is anything wrong with Mike Shanahan, per se: He has had only one losing season since arriving in Denver in 1995. But the Broncos reflect the personality of their coach, and if they want to escape football purgatory, they need a coach with a different personality.

There are plenty of examples, in all sports, of coaches who enjoyed early success only to settle into stagnation. As trends in the league change from year to year, innovative strategies become outmoded. Tools that motivated players when they were young cease to work as they age.

When the players tune out the players’ coach, you bring in a taskmaster; when they tune out the taskmaster, you bring in the players’ coach. The same jolt can occur when you replace an offensive-minded coach with a defensive-minded one, and vice versa. The instability related to a coaching change can itself be an important coaching tool.

Tony Dungy, for example, built the defense in Tampa Bay but couldn’t seem to win in the playoffs. Jon Gruden came in, gave a bit of a shock to the system, and the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl. Dungy, meanwhile, went on to Indianapolis. He was as different from his predecessor Jim Mora as Gruden was from him, and he brought the Colts further in the playoffs than they’d been in years.

After a few years of wild card-level performance, it is time for the Broncos to follow suit. Since Shanahan is an offensive guru, the best switch might be to find a defensive innovator hungry for his first head coaching position, such as Minnesota’s Ted Cottrell, Buffalo’s Jerry Gray, or New England’s Romeo Crennel.

The infusion of new leadership may transform the Broncos into a 12-4 team; more likely, they’ll improve after two or three losing years and some rebuilding with high draft picks. Either way, it’s worth a gamble that may lead to a return to greatness.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.