Heat vs. Nets. No. 1 vs. no. 8. 59-23 vs. 42-40. A total mismatch, right?

Think again. Thanks to a confluence of fortunate events, the Nets have a puncher’s chance in their first round series against Miami, which begins Sunday (3 p.m, ABC). That might be news to those who saw the teams’ last meeting – a 90-65 smackdown by the Heat on March 12 – but the clubs have gone in opposite directions since then.

The Nets caught fire immediately afterward, going 15-4 over their final 19 games. Twelve of the wins came by eight points or more. Meanwhile, Miami stumbled to the finish. The Heat are just 11-7 since blasting the Nets, and center Shaquille O’Neal’s thigh bruise has his status into doubt for the series opener.

More good news may be on the way for the Nets. Forward Richard Jefferson, who hasn’t played since tearing ligaments in his wrist in December, has been cleared to practice and should make his return to the court at some point during the series. Jefferson is returning early and may not be 100%,but since the injury affected his non-shooting wrist, he should be able to score immediately.

Granted, the Nets’ history against Shaq isn’t encouraging. In addition to the four-game bludgeoning they suffered in the 2002 Finals, there’s this year’s 0-3 mark against Miami, in which they lost by 16, 25, and 23.

But all three games transpired before the Great Offensive Renaissance of 2005. Following the third Miami game, the Nets ranked as the worst offensive team in the league according to my Offensive Efficiency stat, which calculates the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions. They were even worse than cellar-dwellers like Atlanta, New Orleans, and Charlotte. But ever since, they’ve been gangbusters.

Leading the way has been Vince Carter, who put up video-game numbers down the stretch. In the final 19 games, Carter was the best player in the league, hands down. He averaged 31 points in that stretch, which would have led the league for the full season, and it wasn’t just Iversonian gunning either. Carter shot 51% and, astoundingly, committed fewer than two turnovers a game. Miami may have Shaq, but if Carter keeps this up, the Nets will have the best player on the court.

How Miami guards Carter will be one of the series’ key subplots. Look for Eddie Jones to get the first crack at him. Jones isn’t as spry as he used to be, but he’s still quick and has long arms to bother Carter’s shots. Jones doesn’t have the strength to handle Carter on the blocks, but since Vince has done most of his damage from outside lately, the Heat can live with Jones’s lack of muscle. When Jones checks out, ex-Knick Shandon Anderson will take Carter. Anderson is stronger than Jones, but Carter should be able to attack him off the dribble.

Of course, the Nets have a dilemma of their own against Shaq. Jason Collins will start out against him – Nenad Krstic is too small to make an impact – but Shaq’s opponents tend to foul out quickly, so several reinforcements are needed. Clifford Robinson is next on the list, but he’ll need all of his veteran savvy to overcome a massive size disadvantage. One guy New Jersey really could have used is Elden Campbell, who defended Shaq very well for Detroit in last year’s finals. Unfortunately, the Nets released him in March when it seemed they were headed for the lottery.

The other key matchup is on the perimeter, where Jason Kidd will take on Dwyane Wade. The Nets would prefer to have another player guard Wade to ensure against Kidd getting in foul trouble, but unless Lawrence Frank plays a zone, Kidd is the only one who’s qualified. Travis Best is too small, Zoran Planinic is too slow, and Rodney Buford is too awful. If Ron Mercer is added to the playoff roster, he would be the next best candidate, but that looks iffy at this point.

Between Carter’s exploits, Jefferson’s return, and Shaq’s sore thigh, the Nets should be able to put a scare into Miami. A big scare. But win the series outright? That might be pushing it.

New Jersey’s frontline talent of Kidd and Carter can hang with the Shaq-Wade pair, but the Nets’ secondary players are another matter. While Miami can call on quality players like Udonis Haslem, Christian Laettner, and Damon Jones to pick up the slack, New Jersey’s only dependable role player is Krstic. Unless Jefferson comes back unusually quickly and plays close to his pre-injury levels, the Nets will find themselves a player short.

Prediction: Heat in six.

Now for the rest of the Eastern Conference action:

(2) DETROIT VS. (7) PHILADELPHIA

The Allen Iverson vs. Larry Brown subplot adds some intrigue to this series, but I’m not sure the excitement will last once they start playing the games. Detroit won 11 straight before mailing in its season finale against the Bobcats, while the 76ers are still a work in progress after struggling to adjust to the mid-year addition of Chris Webber

Philadelphia’s one advantage is that the Pistons’ defensive stoppers are all in the frontcourt, so Iverson should be able to put up some good scoring nights against guards Richard Hamilton and Chauncey Billups. That won’t matter if Iverson doesn’t get some help from the big guys, though. Detroit’s duo of Ben and Rasheed Wallace should easily expose Webber’s waning athleticism, leaving Philly dependent on inconsistent center Samuel Dalembert. Additionally, the Sixers’ bench might be even worse than Detroit’s.

One matchup to keep an eye on, however, is Hamilton against Philly’s Andre Iguodala. Iguodala is a great defender in the making, while Hamilton is the league’s premier practitioner of moving without the ball. That game-within-the-game figures to be much more competitive than the rest of this series.

Prediction: Pistons in five.

(3) BOSTON VS. (6) INDIANA

Reggie Miller’s final season hasn’t gone according to plan, but the Pacers managed to salvage a playoff appearance thanks to a deep bench and masterful coaching by Rick Carlisle. Now that Indy has Jermaine O’Neal back in the lineup, they’re a real threat to the Celtics in the first round. Even without O’Neal, the Pacers defended extremely well over the season’s final month, helping them go 11-5 down the stretch to nail down a playoff spot.

Boston had a remake of its own, however, going 18-9 to capture the Atlantic Division after acquiring Antoine Walker at the trade deadline. Walker isn’t the big star that some imagine, but his arrival allowed Boston to relegate the disappointing Mark Blount to the bench and add a much-needed ball handler to the mix.

Indiana would be in a much better position if point guard Jamaal Tinsley could return, but the foot problems that plagued him in the season’s second half show no sign of abating. Instead, former Net Anthony Johnson will run the show. Of course, Tinsley is not the only key Pacer who is missing. Indy could really use Ron Artest to guard Paul Pierce, but there’s the little matter of his season-long suspension. Instead, fellow pugilist Stephen Jackson, Fred Jones, and James Jones will take turns trying to check Boston’s leading scorer.

O’Neal, however, should have a tremendous advantage against the undersized Walker and the other Boston big men. Considering Miller’s knack for dialing it up in the playoffs, I’m projecting that his career still has one more series left.

Prediction: Pacers in six.

(4) CHICAGO VS. (5) WASHINGTON

If you think this one’s a snoozer, I suggest you keep your eyes open. These teams hate each other. They got into a fight in the pre-season when Larry Hughes shoved Kirk Hinrich into Luol Deng, which ended up with Brendan Haywood and Antonio Davis going mano-a-mano at halfcourt. Then two weeks ago, Tyson Chandler threw Haywood to the floor and stepped on his stomach for good measure.

Moreover, this could be the beginning of a great rivalry for years to come. Both rosters are littered with rising stars in their early- to mid-20s. But the two clubs feature a huge contrast in styles. Washington likes to trap and run. Hughes led the NBA in steals, and, along with point guard Gilbert Arenas, forms the NBA’s best backcourt. Chicago, meanwhile, ranked third in Defensive Efficiency despite its youth. The Bulls play harder than any team in the league and have three outstanding defenders in Hinrich, forward Andres Nocioni, and center Tyson Chandler.

While the Bulls had the better record, they’re at a disadvantage health wise. They’ll have to play without leading scorer Eddy Curry, who is being kept off the court while doctors investigate a heart ailment. They’re also missing starting small forward Deng, but Chicago was able to shrug off both absences to finish the regular season 9-4. I expect them to continue rolling into the second round, but not before things get a little testy between these two budding adversaries.

Prediction: Bulls in seven.