In Search of Sleepers

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Right now, somewhere in your office, somebody has already set up an NCAA Tournament pool and informed you of the required ante. Or maybe you’re reading this while logged on to a Web site in Antigua. Regardless, I’m here to help you sort out your bracket in the wake of Selection Sunday.


A year ago in this space, I issued a set of rules to follow while filling out your bracket. The idea wasn’t to guarantee a win in your tournament pool, since nothing can do that in a one-and-done format where Lady Luck plays such a dominant role. Rather, the idea is to stop you from losing it, so you’re not throwing away your money before the first tip-off on Thursday.


This year, the rules are a little different. For the most part, the tournament committee did an unusually good job of seeding the teams, so we have fewer realistic upset possibilities to consider. There still will be upsets, of course, but few are ones you would bet on beforehand. So don’t be stupid. Just pick the higher seeds in the early rounds and give yourself a chance at the end.


There’s only one exception to that rule, and it’s the one kernel of wisdom to use while filling in your grid: The Pac-10 isn’t good.


Apparently this information didn’t reach the selection committee, since they made Washington a no. 1 seed, Arizona a no. 3, and invited UCLA and Stanford to the Big Dance despite sketchy resumes. None of the TV commentators said a word about this since everyone still regards the league as a “major” conference, but if you went team by team, you’d have a hard time proving it was a better league than the Missouri Valley.


So if the Pac-10 isn’t good, the corollary to that theory is this: Anyone playing a Pac-10 team becomes an immediate sleeper candidate. The opponents of all four Pac-10 teams present interesting opportunities, especially for those of you in pools whose scoring format rewards upset picks.


Let’s start with UCLA, which opens against Texas Tech. Since Bobby Knight’s team is the no. 6 seed and UCLA is no. 11, the Red Raiders are an obvious choice, so no worries there. The twist is that Knight’s team is a good pick for the Sweet 16 too. Gonzaga, their likely second-round opponent, got a no. 3 seed more for its tournament reputation than what it’s accomplished this season. The Red Raiders closed the season like gangbusters, nearly winning the Big 12 tournament, and should continue the long tradition of no. 6 seeds beating no. 3s to make the Sweet 16.


Then there’s no. 8 Stanford, which plays no. 9 Mississippi State in the Austin region. You might think that as the higher seed, Stanford should be favored. Um, no. The Cardinal is certain to be an underdog when the Vegas line comes out, for two reasons. First, Mississippi State had a better year in a better league, making it hard to comprehend how on earth they’re seeded lower.


Second, Stanford’s best player is injured. Leading scorer Dan Grunfeld suffered a season-ending knee sprain in mid-February. Since then the Cardinal is 5-3, including losses to Oregon State and Washington State. Needless to say, I’m taking the Bulldogs.


For more Pac-10 fodder, we have Arizona, generously given the no. 3 seed in the Chicago region. What makes their case interesting is that beyond that high seed, Lute Olson’s team got royally hosed. Arizona’s first-round opponent is Utah State, a better team than many other no. 3 seeds will face even in the second round.


Since most of you aren’t familiar with Utah State, let me point out that their seeding is even more egregious than the Wildcats’. The Aggies won 24 games, beat nationally ranked Utah by 26 points, and ended the nation’s longest winning streak when they beat Pacific in the Big West final. Yet inexplicably they’re seeded 14th with the Niagaras and Winthrops of the world.


For a reality check on the difference between Arizona and Utah State, look at the computer rankings by USA Today whiz Jeff Sagarin – Arizona is 17th, Utah State is 24th. Additionally, Utah State is peaking at the right time, with freshman Jaycee Carroll blowing up at the end of the season.


Then there’s the little matter of the game being played in Boise. A quick Mapquest search tells us that Boise is a four-and-a-half hour drive from Utah State’s campus in Logan, Utah. The typical college student probably can do it in three. In other words, this will be a road game for Arizona, and one against a team that could easily beat them in any location.


I’m not just on the Utah State bandwagon for one round, either. Should Utah State win, they’ll have the same advantage this weekend against the winner of LSU and UAB. So I wouldn’t be shocked at all to see this lowly 14th seed end up in the Sweet 16.


But enough about first-rounders and Sweet 16 teams. Let’s talk about the big fish: A Final Four team lurking outside the top seeds. For that, I bring you Louisville. I know what you’re thinking: The Cardinals have caused innumerable pool participants to burn their brackets in recent years. Louisville also can expect a tough second-round match against last year’s runner-up, Georgia Tech, so I can understand the trepidation.


But unlike recent years, the Cardinals closed this season on a roll and are fully healthy. I was aghast that this team was only seeded as a no. 4 – they lost fewer games than Washington and are 18-1 in their past 19 games. They also won by 15 at Stanford, whereas Washington lost by 10 in Palo Alto. When I first saw the brackets, I thought the Cardinals’ seeding was a typo.


Overall, the tournament committee did an excellent job in most respects, leaving few teams with much to whine about on Selection Sunday. The committee just went loco when it came to seeding the teams from the West, so that’s where an advantage lies for all you small-time office gamblers. Much of the rest of the bracket is straightforward – I have no. 1 seeds Duke and North Carolina in my Final Four, along with no. 2 seed Oklahoma State in a mild surprise over Illinois. My only Cinderella is Louisville, which should have been a no. 1 seed anyway.


My finalists? I can’t bet against North Carolina’s overwhelming talent, even after a sloppy effort in the ACC tournament, so I’m picking them to top Oklahoma State to finally give Roy Williams a national title.


Perhaps we should thank the committee for its oversights with the Pac-10 this year. If it weren’t for them, it would be hard to find a single good sleeper in this year’s bracket. Instead, Texas Tech, Mississippi State, Utah State, and Louisville could be the edge you need in this year’s office pool. Here’s wishing you the best of luck. Even with my advice, you’ll need it.


The New York Sun

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