Inside Game Should Lead UNC to Title

It’s deja-vu all over again for Roy Williams.Two years ago, he coached his Kansas team to the NCAA title game, putting him just one win away from shedding the “can’t-win-the-big-one” label. Unfortunately for Williams, Kansas was narrowly upset by Carmelo Anthony’s Syracuse team, mostly because the Jayhawks happened to channel Shaquille O’Neal’s spririt at the free-throw line that night.Almost immediately after losing that game, Williams left Kansas for his alma mater, North Carolina. Two years into his new job, he’s back in the title game as the Tar Heels meet Illinois tonight.While Illinois finished the year atop the AP poll, Williams’s team again enters the final as the favorite. The Tar Heels have the nation’s best average victory margin, lead the nation in scoring at 88.8 points per game, and are so loaded talent-wise that freshman Marvin Williams, who could be the top pick in June’s NBA draft, comes off the bench.Despite Carolina’s season-long dominance, one gets the sense this team hasn’t played its best game yet. UNC made the championship game despite a fairly lackluster final month. Since beating Duke to end the regular season, the Tar Heels have looked stuck in cruise control. They had to rally to beat lowly Clemson in the first round of the ACC Tournament after trailing at halftime, then lost to Georgia Tech the next day.In the NCAAs, only one performance stands out, a 95-68 second-round blowout of Iowa State. After that it was back to autopilot, winning by one against a Villanova team missing Curtis Sumpter, and making the Final Four with a fairly unimpressive win over a sixth-seeded Wisconsin team.It seemed like more of the same in the first half of Saturday’s game against Michigan State, as the Tar Heels were out-hustled and outplayed en route to a 38-33 halftime deficit. Guard Rashad McCants’s indifferent play stuck out – twice he got alligator arms going for a loose ball and let a Michigan State player crash in to take it away.Despite that uninspired stretch of play, I like Carolina to win tonight based on its second-half annihilation of the Spartans. Those 20 minutes showcased North Carolina’s awesome firepower. Quite simply, it has vastly more talent than any other club, even Illinois. Offensively, it’s all but impossible to defend all of Carolina’s options.Tonight will be a huge leap up in competition, however. UNC managed the difficult feat of making the final without playing a top-four seed, instead facing a no. 16, a no. 9, a no. 6, and two no. 5s. Against all those opponents, the Tar Heels could afford to coast in the first half before bringing down the hammer in the second. But against the Illini’s 37-1 juggernaut, they won’t be able to hit the snooze button for the first 20 minutes.While its record is amazing, Illinois doesn’t seem so threatening at first glance. The Illini are at least an inch shorter at four of the five positions, give up 30 pounds at the other one, and are coached by an Elmer Fudd impersonator. But looks can be deceiving. Despite their lack of size, the Illini are a superb defensive group thanks to the unbelievable quickness of their guards.Louisville learned this lesson in the second half on Saturday night, as the Illini forced them into one bad shot after another (the Cards shot 38.9% for the game). Guard Deron Williams shut down UL star Francisco Garcia (2-for-10 shooting, four points), and Williams isn’t even the best defender of the bunch. Pesky guard Dee Brown is the reigning Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year, often darting in from nowhere to make a steal that produces an easy layup.Those defenders will have their hands full in a battle of the nation’s two best backcourts. Williams likely will start against McCants, a natural scorer who can hit the 3-ball and take a smaller player into the post with equal skill. Offensively, Williams will have to turn the tables by taking advantage of Mc-Cants’s aversion to defense.At the point, Brown will take UNC’s dynamic Raymond Felton. Felton is the catalyst for everything North Carolina does, pushing the pace to wear out less athletic opponents and setting up easy shots for the high-flying frontcourt. In the Michigan State game, it was Felton who took over after halftime by relentlessly attacking the Spartans both in transition and in the half court. His final tally – 16 points, seven assists – greatly understated his impact after the break.But while the backcourt seems fairly even, the frontcourt battle gives Carolina a clear advantage. All-American center Sean May should be able to dominate in the post against the Illinois frontcourt, who have the requisite height but not nearly enough bulk to deal effectively with UNC’s leading scorer.Illinois, however, has an advantage of its own: location. With the game in St. Louis, just across the river from the Land of Lincoln, the Illini figure to have the crowd working in their favor even more than they did in the semifinal against Louisville. Certainly, plenty of North Carolina rooters made the trip, but my guess is they’ll be outnumbered by two or three to one.That edge, along with Illinois’s considerable talent, means it wouldn’t be a big surprise if Illinois won. Nonetheless, the odds favor Carolina. All season long, boredom has been this team’s main enemy, but that’s certain to be a non-factor tonight. Playing for a national championship in front of a packed house, you can expect the Tar Heels to come out swinging. They’ll build on the second half of the Michigan State game and ride that wave to the championship.

Inside Game Should Lead UNC to Title

Inside Game Should Lead UNC to Title

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