Inspired Football Puts Giants a Game Away

The Giants are one game away from the Super Bowl, an improbable notion just a few weeks ago. Since battling the New England Patriots in the regular-season finale, the Giants have played inspired football, headlined by quarterback Eli Manning’s coming of age.Manning, inconsistent during his four-year career, has suddenly developed a great sense of timing. Although he will likely never be as prolific as his older brother, Peyton, Eli doesn’t need to be. His newfound decisiveness, pocket awareness, and ability to avoid momentum-changing miscues have all contributed to the turnaround. And unlike Peyton, Eli will be playing in a conference championship game this Sunday.In addition to Manning’s emergence, the offensive line has been superb in pass protection, rookie fourth-string running back Ahmad Bradshaw has been a pleasant surprise, and the secondary has been masterful. And perhaps most important, New York, a team that had at least one fumble or interception in every regular-season game, hasn’t had a turnover in the playoffs.The Giants have won nine consecutive road games, but the NFC Championship will be at Lambeau Field, where frigid temperatures, and the Brett Favre-led Packers will conspire against them. A victory would send New York to its first Super Bowl in seven years, and Green Bay would return after a 10-year absence.WHEN THE GIANTS HAVE THE BALL Not surprisingly, the Giants fate lies with Manning. He will be without tight end Jeremy Shockey, and his favorite deep threat, wideout Plaxico Burress, is hobbled with an ankle injury. Still, during the last three games, Manning has been proficient at finding open receivers, even if that meant settling for short gains instead of forcing the ball downfield.Manning’s success is directly attributable to his offensive line’s ability to protect him. Both could be tested Sunday. The Packers defense didn’t blitz much during the regular season, but if the game plan is to pressure Manning into making mistakes — something the Vikings did with much success in Week 12 — he will have to get rid of the ball quickly.That could mean a busy day for rookie Steve Smith, even though he saw little action during the regular season. Only Minnesota was worse than Green Bay against no. 3 receivers, which becomes especially important if the Packers focus on taking Burress out of the game.A strong running game also equalizes an overaggressive pass rush. Brandon Jacobs is the straight-ahead punishing back, and Bradshaw serves as a shifty change of pace. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average ratings (DVOA) (which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent), the Giants were the seventh-ranked rushing team in 2007, but the Packers were sixth at stopping the run.New York also has trouble running the ball near the end zone. Don’t look for that to change in Green Bay:The Packers ranked third against the run in the red zone.WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL Conventional wisdom suggests the Packers are a pass-only offense. That was true for the first two months of the regular season. Green Bay’s running game improved from 15th over the first half of the year to fourth in the final eight games.Much of that has to do with the emergence of running back Ryan Grant, a former undrafted free agent who once toiled on the Giants’ practice squad. Grant didn’t get his first start until Week 9, but he finished the regular season with 956 yards on 188 carries (5.1 average) and eight touchdowns.In last week’s NFC Divisional matchup against the Seahawks, Grant totaled 207 rushing yards on 27 carries (7.4 average), including three touchdowns. And this was after he lost two fumbles in the game’s first 69 seconds.Still, quarterback Brett Favre drives this offense. Green Bay’s offensive line allowed just 19 sacks during the regular season (fourth in the league), which was a big part of Favre’s success. But the Giants have one of the league’s most fearsome pass-rushing defensive lines. New York ranked first in NFL in sacks, led by Osi Umenyiora (13), Justin Tuck (10), and Michael Strahan (9).The key for the Packers could be on first down. They ranked third in the league in second-and-short situations, and the Giants defense ranked 27th. New York also didn’t defend tight ends and running backs particularly well during the regular season, one of Green Bay’s strengths. (Packers tight ends hauled in 66 passes this year, and running backs were good for another 85.)Despite the improved secondary, the Giants defense continues to struggle in the red-zone. The unit ranked 23rd against the pass, and 30th against the run. In the last three weeks, offenses have scored touchdowns on seven of eight opportunities.KEY TO THE GAME Simply put, for the Giants to extend their road-winning streak to 10 games and make it to the Super Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., Manning must take care of the football. For that to happen, New York has to keep the game close. If Green Bay jumps out to an early 14-point lead, the Giants could be forced to put the ball in the air.Manning’s numbers have been outstanding since the Week 17 Patriots game (70.1 completion percentage, eight touchdowns, one interception 122.2 passer rating), but he never had to lead the team back from a huge deficit. Another reason to avoid a slow start: game-time temperatures are expected to be in the single digits.Defensively, the Giants are going to have to generate a four-man pass rush, something they’ve had great success with during the regular season. No team has protected their quarterback better than the Packers protect Favre, though, and if New York has to regularly send extra defenders to generate pressure, Favre could have a big day.The Giants’ playoff run has been unexpected, to be sure, but it is not unprecedented: the 2003 Carolina Panthers were a mediocre team that snuck into the playoffs before going on a tear.The Giants have outscored their opponents by just 22 points, and had a minus-10 turnover differential; the Panthers were 11–5 in 2003, outscored their opponents by 21 points, and had a minus-5 turnover differential.Like the ’03 Panthers, New York’s strengths are a two-back system that features a veteran power runner and a change-of-pace rookie, a menacing pass rush, and a heady middle linebacker.Manning finished the regular season with 23 touchdowns and 20 interceptions, but hasn’t thrown an interception in the postseason. In 2003, Carolina’s Jake Delhomme had 19 touchdowns and 16 interceptions during the regular season, and only one turnover in the postseason.To make it to the Super Bowl, the Giants will need to beat two teams it lost to during the regular season (Dallas and Green Bay); the Panthers made it to the Super Bowl beating two teams it lost to during the regular season (Dallas and Philadelphia).Can the Giants do what the Panthers couldn’t and win the Super Bowl? We’ll be one step closer to that answer on Sunday.Mr. Wilson is a writer for FootballOutsiders.com.

Inspired Football Puts Giants a Game Away

Inspired Football Puts Giants a Game Away

More from the New York Sun

Trump Gets His Day in Court To Fight Convictions for Hush Money Payments to Stormy Daniels

After Years-Long Debate, Airbnb Restricts Hosts’ Ability To Require Guests To Do ‘Onerous’ Chores

Security Crisis Casts Shadow Over Boxing Championship, High-Profile WWE Matches Scheduled at Riyadh

Federal Judge Strikes Down New York’s Body Armor Ban

Old-School Thieving on New York’s Mean Streets

Pollsters Warn MAGA Voters Are Being Undercounted and Blue Wave is an Illusion

Ireland Scraps ‘Demeaning’ Ad Warning Grandparents Against Hugging Their Grandchildren

Larry David Was Right To Call Out Socialist Absurdity, but I Wish He Were Funnier

More from the New York Sun

Trump Gets His Day in Court To Fight Convictions for Hush Money Payments to Stormy Daniels

After Years-Long Debate, Airbnb Restricts Hosts’ Ability To Require Guests To Do ‘Onerous’ Chores

Security Crisis Casts Shadow Over Boxing Championship, High-Profile WWE Matches Scheduled at Riyadh

Federal Judge Strikes Down New York’s Body Armor Ban

Old-School Thieving on New York’s Mean Streets

Pollsters Warn MAGA Voters Are Being Undercounted and Blue Wave is an Illusion

Ireland Scraps ‘Demeaning’ Ad Warning Grandparents Against Hugging Their Grandchildren

Larry David Was Right To Call Out Socialist Absurdity, but I Wish He Were Funnier