When Wimbledon began, Rafael Nadal, the two-time defending French Open champion, was little more than a grasscourt novelty. Sure, the Spaniard was full of fight. Sure, he loved Wimbledon and wanted to dedicate himself to grass as his career progressed. But for Nadal to survive the first week, much less the quarterfinals, was at best improbable. It would be a fun few days — a passing shot here, a leaping fist pump there, a colorful press conference or two — and then a quiet goodbye.

As Wimbledon reaches its final weekend, Nadal is a novelty no more. He’s still hitting topspin forehands at impossible angles, still serving better than most thought he could, and still trampling the grass courts of the All England Club into a pile of dirt. Unfounded allegations of his connection to a cycling doping scandal have not deterred him. Neither did the spins and loopy strokes of the lefthanded Jarkko Nieminen, a talented Finn who has troubled Nadal in the past. Yesterday, Nadal handed Nieminen a 6–3, 6–4, 6–4 defeat, the Spaniard’s third straight victory in straight sets.

While every tennis fan feared that some catastrophe might prevent Nadal and Roger Federer from meeting in the French Open final, no one would have predicted a rematch at the tournament that Federer owns and Nadal has considered a distant dream.

But Nadal is a believer, something that cannot be said for most of his contemporaries. All those talented men lined up in Federer’s half of the draw squandered their opportunities to make the three-time defending champion earn his fourth title. Richard Gasquet, Tim Henman, Tomas Berdych, Mario Ancic — all fine grasscourt players — did not even take a set off Federer. And afterwards, they heaped praised on the world no. 1, while sounding like they never thought they had a chance in the first place.

Rubbish, as the fans in London might say. Certainly Federer is the best, but so good that no one can manage a single set against him? If he reaches the final, Nadal might not win one, either. But he’ll expect to win them all.

“The king is Roger, that’s for sure,” Nadal said yesterday. “But I am trying.”

How has Nadal adjusted to grass so quickly? He played terribly in his first match, and then came within two points of losing to an American qualifier, Robert Kendrick (he dropped the first two sets). But against Andre Agassi, Nadal was a new man. He flattened out his forehand and became more comfortable stepping into the court and hitting the ball earlier than usual. His serve often reached 120 mph, and he spotted it precisely. Most impressive, his two-handed backhand has become a bona fide weapon, at times more dangerous than his forehand. Nadal seems to create severe angles with a flick of his wrists, perhaps because he is naturally right handed.

It’s no cinch that Nadal will defeat Marcos Baghdatis. The Cypriot has the aggressive game and explosive movement to trouble Nadal, though he too often has lapses. Nadal’s mind never seems to wander, and this ought to prove the difference. And in the final — well, it’s a long shot, but with Nadal anything can happen.

“Rafa does not fear Roger,” Jim Courier, the former world no. 1 and French Open champion, said in an interview. “Rafa plays with guts, guile, and sheer determination. He loves when the going gets tough while Roger is so rarely tested that he almost seems out of sorts when it gets tight.”

Nadal put it best yesterday when he was asked to predict the winner of the World Cup final on Sunday.

“I don’t know,” he said. “It’s 50 percent everybody, no?”

That’s the spirit.