Is the Pac-10 the Nation’s Most Dangerous Conference?

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Back in the day, when John Wooden and UCLA collected championship banners like Los Angeles collected starlets and traffic jams, no one questioned the strength or toughness of West Coast basketball. Over the past couple of decades, that changed. The Pac-10 became known as a conference that was high on finesse basketball and regular season accomplishments, low on grit and postseason success.

No one’s saying that anymore. The nation’s most loaded conference has a great chance to send seven teams to the NCAA tournament this season. That’s seven out of 10, a fantastic 70% rate — not the soft seven often put up by the overloaded ACC and SEC. In fact, the Pac-10’s slate of quality teams goes eight deep.

UCLA is a legitimate threat to win it all. Washington State has quickly gone from conference also-ran to national power, thanks to rising star coach Tony Bennett and a balanced squad of upperclassmen. Brook Lopez should again be an inside terror at Stanford assuming he gets academically eligible, and he’s got tons of help on the perimeter. Oregon returns four starters from last year’s dazzling fun ‘n’ gun offense.

Wait, there’s more. USC balances mega-hyped freshman O.J. Mayo with sophomore star Taj Gibson and a talented young core. Chase Budinger could pull down conference Player of the Year honors at Arizona. Washington lost Spencer Hawes to the NBA but could actually be better this year with an extra year of experience for the Huskies’ incumbents, led by Jon Brockman. Cal is thin in the backcourt, but few teams can match the Bears’ frontcourt duo of DeVon Hardin and Ryan Anderson.

The common thread among many of the Pac-10’s elite is toughness, both on a team level and among some of the conference’s top individual players. Few teams defended better last season than the trio of UCLA, Washington State, and USC. According to Ken Pomeroy’s stats Mecca kenpom.com, UCLA ranked fourth in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency; Washington State placed 19th, USC 24th. It’s no coincidence that the Bruins made their second straight Final Four, while the Trojans and Cougars nabbed high seeds in the NCAA tournament after multiyear absences from the big dance.

When UCLA coach Ben Howland took over a struggling UCLA team in 2003, the Bruins lacked both big-time talent and the kind of get-after-it intensity common among winning teams. This was a huge disappointment to Bruin denizens, so used to watching All-Americans hoisting banners in Westwood. After going 11–17 in his first year with UCLA, Howland’s recruiting and teaching started paying dividends. Deploying Howland’s trademark stifling man-to-man defense, the Bruins went 18–11 in his second season in 2004, cracking the NCAA tournament. They then went 62–13 over the next two years, losing to Florida twice with a championship just out of their reach. The Bruins’ bounceback has inspired a new generation of star recruits to come to UCLA, with stud frosh Kevin Love the biggest coup in Howland’s tenure to date.

Like an American League team vying to keep up with the rich and talented Yankees and Red Sox, the rest of the Pac-10 has had to adapt and improve to keep up with the emerging UCLA juggernaut. A successful college coach and motivator of great defenses in his own right, Tim Floyd brought Mayo to USC and has others knocking on the door. Washington State’s Bennett has accomplished a feat many thought impossible: He’s made Pullman a desirable place to play, thanks to the success of the Cougars.

The Pac-10’s newfound success and emphasis on defense is no longer predicated on ball-hawking little guys. In fact, few conferences boast more frontcourt talent. Hardin, Gibson, Brockman, Lopez, and Love all project as first-round NBA picks at power forward or center — as much for their defense, rebounding, and fierce games as for their scoring ability. Few conferences can match the Pac-10’s blend of star freshmen and impact returning players, too. Compare the conference’s top contenders to other national powers: Ohio State lost Greg Oden and Mike Conley Jr.; Georgetown lost Jeff Green; Texas A&M lost Acie Law; Florida lost everybody. In the Pac-10, USC may have trouble meeting expectations after losing NBA draft picks Nick Young and Gabe Pruitt, along with sharpshooter Lodrick Stewart — though Mayo should put up obscene numbers in their stead. Washington lost Hawes but is still projected to improve after last year’s down season. UCLA lost Arron Afflalo, only to replace him with a Wes Unseld clone in Love. You’d be hard pressed to name many other notable players who’ve left campus since the end of last year.

In fact, the only glitch in the Pac-10’s plan for college hoops dominance might be a sheer numbers game. The conference’s top eight teams could all make a case for the NCAAs on ability. But simple math suggests that seven is the likely maximum and six more likely, given the selection committee’s reluctance to pick teams with losing conference records.

So while UCLA embarks on another potential Final Four trip and multiple other Pac-10 teams make their mark, spare some sympathy for the NIT field. Whichever top-eight squad doesn’t make the big dance could inflict some major damage in the little dance.

Mr. Keri (jonahkeri@gmail.com) is a writer for ESPN.com’s Page 2 and a contributor to YESNetwork.


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