Raise your hand if you can remember an NCAA tournament field as wide open as this year’s. The usual stalwarts of recent vintage, Duke and Connecticut, are nowhere near their usual status as no. 1 seeds — UConn didn’t even make the NIT.

There are still plenty of familiar names. But how do you separate North Carolina from Kansas? If Ohio State plays Florida, would the Thad Five prevail, or would Gators fans be chanting “Just like football”?

You’ve got questions; we’ve got answers.

If the tournament plays out the way the regular season did, there’s sure to be fireworks. The 2006–2007 season was the Year of the Freshman. The NBA’s new rookie eligibility rules forced top high school seniors to go to college for at least one year. Combine the rule with an amazing bumper crop of super frosh, and you have a situation similar to Carmelo Anthony’s national championship season at Syracuse — times 10.

The combination of Greg Oden, Mike Conley Jr., and three other talented freshmen propelled Ohio State to the no. 1 ranking in the nation. Sherron Collins and Darrell Arthur have teamed up with last year’s bumper crop of freshman at Kansas to make the Jayhawks a national title contender. Brandan Wright, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington made a scary Carolina team downright terrifying. Greivis Vasquez (Maryland), Javaris Crittenton and Thaddeus Young (Georgia Tech), Chase Budinger (Arizona), Tajuan Porter (Oregon), Taj Gibson (USC), Jon Scheyer (Duke), Edgar Sosa (Louisville), Brook and Robin Lopez (Stanford), and many others have given their more experienced teammates huge lifts around the country.

And then there’s that Kevin Durant guy. He’s pretty good, too.

Conference bragging rights should be another interesting plotline to follow. The Pac-10 earned a lot of respect this season, sending six teams (60%) of league members to the big dance, the highest percentage of any conference. But everyone not named UCLA ran into problems at some point during the season, and question marks now surround those Pac-10 teams. The ACC has North Carolina and a lot of question marks, boasting several dangerous but streaky teams. Maryland and Virginia Tech own the statistical profiles and talent to make deep tournament runs. No way the Big 10 should have had six teams in, and everyone not named Ohio State (including Wisconsin) could have their problems. The SEC has Florida and a bunch of teams that couldn’t win on the road — except Vanderbilt, still a relatively unknown team on a national basis, but a legitimate Sweet 16 pick.

And the most underrated, dangerous conference of all? The Big 12, which has a fighting chance to send three teams — loaded no. 1 seed Kansas, experienced, disciplined no. 3 seed Texas A&M, and Durant-ified no. 4 seed Texas — to the Final Four.

MIDWEST

EARLY EXIT: Butler

By Thanksgiving, no team anywhere owned more impressive wins than the Bulldogs, after Butler beat four tournament teams—Notre Dame, Indiana, Tennessee, and Gonzaga — all away from home. But that was November and this is now. Butler lost four of its last eight games and now faces a more athletic Old Dominion team that fared well in a loaded CAA conference. It’s a shame the tournament committee pitted so many mid-majors against each other in the first round. It’s a bigger shame for Butler, because they’re leaving early.

BRACKET BUSTER: UNLV

Winthrop is everyone’s Cinderella this year, as pundits search desperately for “this year’s George Mason.” The Eagles actually match up well with Notre Dame, and could pose problems for Oregon in round two as well. But it’s UNLV — a team projected as a no. 4 seed just a few days ago by at least one major bracketologist — that figures to make the most noise. Georgia Tech is a talented but erratic opponent in the round one 7-10 game; Wisconsin lacks uppertier talent after Alando Tucker, has Brian Butch hurt, and Michael Flowers hobbling; the Rebels’ Sweet 16 opponent will either be defensively challenged (Oregon or Notre Dame) or untested on the big stage ( Winthrop). UNLV cracks the Elite Eight, and somewhere, Anderson Hunt smiles.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Aaron Brooks, Oregon

The most talented player on a team full of offensive dynamos, Brooks flirted with national Player of the Year consideration until Kevin Durant decided to crush everything in his path. A 6-foot guard who blows by bigger defenders and can shoot over the rare smaller ones, Brooks is capable of taking over a game; he did so several times during the Pac-10 season, including a last-minute shot to topple UCLA. If UNLV doesn’t make the Elite Eight, it could be because Brooks bombed away for 30-plus and beat them.

PROJECTED WINNER: Maryland

Heading into the tournament, the Terrapins rank 6th in the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, a statistic which measures how well a team fares on a per-possession, competition-adjusted basis on defense. That trait figures to serve them well during the tournament, especially if their expected Sweet 16 match-up with Florida comes to fruition. The Terps are balanced, with freshman point guard Greivis Vasquez running the show, wings D.J. Strawberry and Mike Jones providing the perimeter scoring punch, and Ekene Ibekwe and James Gist backstopping the defense with ample rebounding and shot-blocking. Battle-tested in the tough ACC and coming off sevenstraight regular-season wins to end the season, Maryland is flying just under the radar, despite a talent base that stacks up with anyone. If this profile sounds familiar, it should. Florida’s profile was nearly identical a year ago — and we know how the Gators fared last March.

EAST

EARLY EXIT: Washington State

It’s the Durant theory, writ smaller: When in doubt, bet on the team with the best player. In this case, it’s Oral Roberts’s Caleb Green, a 6-foot-8-inch, 255-pound bruiser who’s tallied more than 2,000 points in his career and gets to the line like a poor man’s Karl Malone. Washington State is a smart, well-coached team that doesn’t beat itself. But the Cougars rarely blow other teams out either, as they usually stick to a slow pace and steady execution. Either way, Green is a near lock for 20 and 10 (or close to it). But if Oral Roberts handles Derrick Low, a hot-shooting but guardable little guy, the Golden Eagles could produce a big upset.

BRACKET BUSTER: Vanderbilt

Oral Roberts is the obvious pick here if it pulls off the 3-14 upset. Whoever wins that game figures to run into trouble against no. 6 seed Vanderbilt. The Commodores were the best road team in the SEC not named Florida this year, separating them from the rest of their road-challenged conference rivals. Vandy likes to spread the floor and shoot threes off quick ball movement. If their shots fall, they can hang with almost anyone. Georgetown would be a tough assignment, but a Sweet 16 berth looks highly doable.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Kevin Durant

Of all the teams in the tournament, Texas may be the only one that can list its coach as its biggest weakness. Rick Barnes seems determined to make Durant work extra-hard for every shot, rarely running plays for his all-world star, not even the simplest pick-androlls. Durant is good enough to simply receive the ball at the top of the key and drain contested 25-footers if necessary. A smart, rugged team like Carolina or Georgetown or even possible second-round opponent USC (one of the nation’s leaders in field goal percentage allowed) is going to make Durant work for his shots. Longhorns fans can only hope that Barnes has been saving his Durant-freeing screens and backdoor lobs for the tourney; Texas can beat anyone if that happens.

PROJECTED WINNER: Georgetown

Call it a war of attrition. Despite landing the higher seed, North Carolina faces a much tougher road to the Elite Eight than the Hoyas do. Drew Neitzel and tournament-savvy coach Tom Izzo will give the Heels palpitations in round two. But the biggest challenge will come from Texas and Durant in the Sweet 16. The Longhorns have already played two epic multiple-overtime games this year, and Durant’s refuse to lose mentality could net another against Carolina. Whoever comes out of that game will likely face a Georgetown team with an easy path to the regional final. There, the Hoyas’ inside strength with Roy Hibbert, their precision Princeton offense (no. 1 in the nation in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency), and their do-it-all star Jeff Green should prevail.

WEST

EARLY EXIT: Duke

It’s hard to imagine Duke getting a nastier first-round draw. VCU’s guard combination of B.A. Walker, Jesse Pellot-Rosa, and Eric Maynor is athletic, quick, and dangerous on defense and capable of blowing by defenders on offense — everything Greg Paulus is not. Maynor made two open-court steals in a row and scored VCU’s last nine points in the Rams’ CAA final win over George Mason last weekend, and he often plays third banana behind Walker and Pellot-Rosa, content to lead the team in assists and let others score when necessary. Josh McRoberts has a big size advantage over VCU’s big men, but the Rams’ pressure defense and McRoberts’s passive nature could keep him away from the hoop, and Duke out of tournament in the first round.

BRACKET BUSTER: Virginia Tech

VCU looks like the lowest seed likely to make the Sweet 16, but Virginia Tech deserves a nod here too. Much of what happens in the tourney comes down to what a team can do on any given day. On other given days this year, the Hokies have knocked off Boston College, Duke (at Cameron Indoor), Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina twice. Southern Illinois is a bear of a second-round match-up, and Kansas even more so if the Hokies crack the Sweet 16. But a talented, battle-tested team out of a power conference can’t be ignored, even as a no. 5 seed.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Darren Collison, UCLA

A throwback point guard, Collison has actually surpassed last year’s starter Jordan Farmar in several key areas, most notably assist-to-turnover ratio. He’s blazingly fast, doesn’t make mistakes, and dangerous when Arron Afflalo, Josh Shipp look to him to take over the offense on occasion. Watch out for bullet passes, inyour-jersey defense, and a quiet, confident leadership from Collison as the Bruins vie to return to the Final Four.

PROJECTED WINNER: Kansas

Our only no. 1 seed projected to make the Final Four, Kansas is also viewed by many as the weakest of the top seeds, having ranked lower in the polls for most of the season. But don’t let the rankings fool you. The Jayhawks carved through a Big 12 conference that was as tough as any in America this year. They can beat you in multiple ways, including the top-ranked defense in the country based on Adjusted Defensive Efficiency numbers. Kansas’s offense will be the variable to watch. Loaded with McDonald’s All-Americans, the Jayhawks may need to find a go-to scorer against top opponents to keep rolling to Atlanta. Waterbug point guard Sherron Collins may now be that guy, after dropping 25 pounds and stripping off the shackles of freshman pressure as the season wore on. He’s incredibly fun to watch.

SOUTH

EARLY EXIT: Virginia

Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds form one of the best backcourts in the country, and Virginia tied North Carolina for the best regular-season record in the ACC. But this is a flawed team, with losses to the likes of Utah, Miami, and Wake Forest on its schedule and a habit of going through the motions at the worst possible times. Albany nearly became the first no. 16 seed to take down a no. 1 last year, leading by double-digits against Connecticut before the Huskies charged back to win. The Great Danes’ lead guard Jamar Wilson is a two-time America East Player of the Year and the architect of Albany’s dramatic win in the conference tournament finals at Vermont that got them to this point. Virginia will let its guard down against this mid-major sleeper, and the Danes will pull the upset.

BRACKET BUSTER: Creighton

The South region could end up holding closer to form than any other, with the exception of an early Virginia loss. But Creighton could create more mayhem. The Blue Jays showed their moxie in taking down the stifling Southern Illinois Salukis in the Missouri Valley tournament final. The dynamic duo of wiry scoring guard Nate Funk and skilled big man Anthony Tolliver can score 40-plus combined at any time. All-America candidate Nick Fazekas gets all the attention, but Nevada’s shutdown defender Kyle Shiloh won’t be 100%, if he plays at all, which could give the Blue Jays the edge. Memphis would be a tougher assignment, but the Tigers are as mercurial as they are talented and could pay the price if they overlook Creighton.

PLAYER TO WATCH: Chris Lofton, Tennessee

You’ve got a future no. 1 NBA pick in Greg Oden, the country’s best clutch player in Acie Law, a bona fide star in Fazekas, and a host of other studs in this region. But Lofton defines the term fearless. At just 6-foot-2, Lofton will routinely step right into a bigger defender’s face and knock down a three-point dagger from an impossible angle. He can hit the step-back three, the 25-foot three, even a bank shot if he really wanted it. Imagine a smaller, more likable J.J. Redick on a fun, fast-paced team you’d actually want to root for, and you have Chris Lofton.

PROJECTED WINNER: Texas A&M

The Aggies are one of only two teams that rank in the top 10 in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency. North Carolina is the other team, which tells you all you need to know about how good A &M is. No player has made more clutch shots against highlevel opponents this year than Aggies senior guard Acie Law, a player who oozes swagger and backs it up. Joseph Jones and Antanas Kavaliauskas form a rare duo capable of hanging with Oden on the inside should A &M make it to the Elite Eight and face the Buckeyes, and coach Billy Gillispie is a master at concocting frustrating defensive schemes. The South regional also takes place in San Antonio, a venue that would give the no. 3 seed Aggies a big home-court edge.

Final Four Predictions

Kansas vs. Maryland

If the Terps have the talent and pluck to knock off Florida, they figure to have a good chance against Kansas too. But the Jayhawks prove to be too much for Maryland, as five different players crack double figures and Julian Wright’s all-around performance proves that only Jeff Green can compare in the do-it-all department.

Georgetown vs. Texas A&M

A Green-Hibbert vs. Jones-Kavaliauskas tilt could be a beauty. Both teams are experienced, intelligent, and play in a system that helps them win, even against the most starstuffed opponents. This game will be sophomore guard Jessie Sapp’s time to shine, and Sapp and backcourt mate Jonathan Wallace rise up to hold Acie Law in check. The Hoyas prevail.

Championship Kansas vs. Georgetown

Kansas vs. Georgetown: Sasha Kaun, fasten your seat belt. The Jayhawks center will provide surprising resistance against Hibbert, allowing his thoroughbred teammates to get out and run the Hoyas ragged. Julian Wright, Brandon Rush, Mario Chalmers, Russell Robinson, Sherron Collins, Darrell Arthur — it’s a murderers’ row for Kansas, one that will cut down the nets in Atlanta.

2007 National Champion: Kansas