It’s Bubble Time: Mid-Majors Seeking Bids
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

It’s that time of year again: Bubble Time.
With NCAA Tournament bids to be announced in 10 days, the hodgepodge of teams in that nebulous zone known as “the bubble” are making their final push to get picked for a spot in the 64-team extravaganza. Next week the major conferences take center stage, including the Big East’s bash at the Garden, but this weekend it’s the lesser-known conferences that have the spotlight as they play their year-end tournaments.
Notice I said “lesser-known” and not “worse.” It’s been an unusual year in college basketball because several nontraditional powers have been surprisingly strong. In fact, many teams outside the power conferences could get at-large bids to the Big Dance even if they fail to win their conference tournaments this weekend.
Two leagues stand out. The West Coast Conference, which traditionally has featured Gonzaga and seven patsies, is one of the strongest leagues in the country this season. Its fourth-place team, Santa Clara, beat North Carolina, while an impressive St. Mary’s team has pushed the ‘Zags for the league crown.
Perhaps more notable is the Missouri Valley Conference, which could receive as many as four invitations. Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, and Creighton are more likely than not to be part of the 64-team NCAA field, and Wichita State is right on the cusp.
Of course, if these leagues get multiple bids, it means some of the power conferences – the Pac-10 stands out – won’t be getting as many. But those schools still have a week left to play. For the rest, the last chance to impress the committee is right now. Here’s a look at the so-called “mid-majors” that have a chance to earn at-large dance tickets by playing well this weekend.
DEFINITES
Gonzaga (23-4 overall, 12-2 WCC)
The only question right now for the nation’s 12th-ranked team is how high they’ll be seeded. No. 5 in the Albuquerque region seems about right.
Southern Illinois (25-6, 15-3 MVC) The regular-season champs of the Missouri Valley are likely to end up seeded in the top half of the bracket. An impressive early-season road win at Vanderbilt removes any doubt.
Pacific (23-2, 16-0 Big West) The nation’s 17th-ranked team hasn’t lost since mid-December, and one of the Tigers’ two losses this year was at no. 7 Kansas. Plus, they beat Nevada on the road. They should earn a spot in the top half of the bracket, but a lack of marquee wins will keep them from being one of the top 16 seeds.
PROBABLES
Nevada (22-5, 14-2 Western Athletic) Despite their no. 25 national ranking, the Wolf Pack aren’t a sure thing because they don’t have a standout win. However, their strong performance in a decent league means they should be able to withstand a slip-up in the conference tournament.
Northern Iowa (21-9, 11-7 MVC) They’re only tied for third in the Missouri Valley, but the Panthers probably nailed down a bid when they beat Wichita State on a 3-pointer at the buzzer Monday night. With a one-sided victory over Iowa State, and close road losses to no. 22 Cincinnati and Iowa, it would be 1183 1870 1302 1873unprecedented for a team like UNI to be left out.
St. Mary’s (24-7, 11-3 WCC) The Gaels’ biggest advantage is the overall strength of the WCC, which could influence the committee to hand it a second bid. They also helped themselves with a resume-enhancing win over Gonzaga in January.
George Washington (18-7, 10-5 Atlantic 10) The one team in the A-10 that has a reasonable shot at a bid if they don’t win the conference tournament, the Colonials can’t breathe easy after dropping two of their final three league games. However, wins over Michigan State and Maryland make them an easy sell.
Miami, Ohio (16-8, 12-5 Mid-American) The MAC has been a Cinderella factory in recent seasons, including Wally Szczerbiak’s famous run with the Red Hawks in 1999.This year’s Hawks have a win over Purdue and a key late-season victory against Wichita St. to support their argument if they don’t win the MAC tourney. They also romped over Kent St. last night, 70-45.
Creighton (20-10, 11-7 MVC) The Bluejays aren’t hearing much talk about an at-large bid, but that may be an oversight. They are tied with Northern Iowa in the MVC and beat Missouri, Ohio State, Xavier, and Nebraska on the road. They also won their last five games, and if they can win at least once in the conference tournament, they should sneak in.
Utah St. (21-7; 12-5 BWC) With Pacific and Utah St., the Big West is another second-tier league that’s been uncommonly strong this year. The Aggies played Pacific tough twice, but the big feather in their cap is the 26-point rout of no. 16 Utah earlier this year. The rest of their schedule was soft, but signature wins like that tend to impress the committee.
DOUBTFULS
UTEP (23-7, 13-4 WAC) The Miners have a couple of important notches on their belt. They beat Arizona State on the road early in the season, and they’re second behind Nevada in the WAC. However, the rest of their schedule has been so weak that they still won’t get in without taking the WAC tournament – not with names like “Delaware St.,” “IPFW,” “Occidental,” and something called “Panhandle St.” dotting their slate.
Wichita St. (19-8, 12-6 MVC) They seemed to be a lock until they dropped five of their past six games, including a non-league game against Miami, Ohio. Right now their strongest argument is a road win at Providence, but the Friars are down this year. The Shockers probably need to make it to the finals of the MVC tournament, which starts Saturday.
Buffalo (18-8, 10-7 MAC) Buffalo!? Yes, Buffalo. The MAC’s newest team has a better chance than people realize to slip into the tournament field thanks to an 8-6 road record and a solid conference mark. But common sense should prevail: The Bulls don’t have a single standout win and were blown out of the gym by UConn the one time they stepped up in competition.
Vermont (21-6, 16-2 America East) The Catamounts are the one good team in a terrible league, but that might not help them if they fail to win their conference tournament. Like Nevada, they don’t have a signature win, although they came impressively close at Kansas early in the season. Losing to Maine by 21 on Sunday may have slammed the door shut.
Old Dominion (23-5, 15-3 Colonial Athletic) The Monarchs dominated the CAA this year, which wasn’t as easy as in previous years. That said, they probably won’t get in if they don’t win the conference tournament this weekend, because their schedule has been too soft. Had they won an early-season road game against DePaul, I might be singing a different tune.
Kent State (18-11, 10-7 MAC) The Golden Flashes played a ton of early-season road games and won at Creighton and at Florida State. They also played tough against no. 5 Boston College, losing by two in the Eagles’ building. All that makes solid grounds for a bid, but they haven’t helped themselves by playing poorly down the stretch, and getting crushed by Miami, Ohio last night. They now find themselves among several virtually indistinguishable teams in that league – all of whom appear headed for the NIT.