Jefferson or No, This Is New Jersey’s Series To Lose

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After requiring six uninspiring games to knock out Indiana in the first round of the NBA playoffs, the Nets looked like a completely different team against Miami in Game 1 of the second round on Monday. The Nets outran, outshot, and flat outplayed the Heat so thoroughly in their 100-88 win that many now consider the Heat the underdogs.

New Jersey landed a haymaker almost immediately after the opening tip, embarking on a 12-0 first-quarter run and establishing a double-digit lead. Most impressively, they never let up.The Nets kept on making shots right through the midway point of the third quarter, building a lead of as many as 28 points before becoming bored with the ease of their task.

When Miami made its inevitable run, closing the lead to nine points with four minutes to go, New Jersey went right back into shot-making mode. A few baskets from Jason Kidd and Vince Carter sent the Heat gently into that good night and marked the Nets’ fourth win over the Heat this season in five tries.

The main chink in the Heat’s armor is their perimeter defense. Chicago showed in the first round that attacking Miami with guards, pushing the pace, and getting the rock to whomever Antoine Walker is attempting to guard can be an extremely successful strategy.The Nets took the same game plan and executed it to greater effect, as the “Big Three” of Carter, Kidd, and Richard Jefferson got almost any shot they wanted.

All this has to be jarring for a Miami team that ranked ninth in the NBA this season in Defensive Efficiency (my measure of a team’s points allowed per 100 opponent possessions). But playoff results often depend on how key players match up against the opponent, and the Nets hold most of those advantages here.

Let’s start with Carter, who riddled Miami in the regular season and didn’t let up on Monday. Checked mostly by Dwyane Wade, Carter repeatedly went to the rim en route to scoring 27 points. His staggering 19 free-throw attempts also had a defensive impact, as one of the fouls he drew was Shaquille O’Neal’s fourth, early in the third quarter.

But we expected Carter to fare well in this series.The real surprise was how easy it was to burn Walker. Much as Chicago’s Andres Nocioni repeatedly torched him in the first round,Jefferson destroyed him from the opening tip.Jefferson scored 11 points in the first four minutes and had 20 in 22 minutes when he sprained his ankle. He did so, of course, while waltzing to the hoop after blowing by Walker yet again, which makes his availability for the rest of this series crucial.

That brings us to Kidd, who had been made to look very old by Indiana’s Anthony Johnson in Round 1. He drilled one jumper after another en route to a magnificent 22-point, nine-rebound, seven-asssist, three-steal performance. Kidd can shoot over Jason Williams and Gary Payton any time he wants, and he knows it. The accuracy might not be there every night – this is Jason Kidd we’re talking about – but if Jefferson isn’t available tonight, the Nets will need Kidd to create shots for himself off the dribble. Against Miami’s guards, he can do it.

That was the whole story of Game 1: The Nets had three guys who could score and Miami couldn’t stop any of them.As much as the Heat were whining about O’Neal’s two offensive fouls against Jason Collins, the fact is they were already down double digits by the time Shaq left the court in the first quarter. The game was already over.

Heading into tonight’s Game 2, the biggest question is Jefferson’s status. On that topic, I have two and a half words of advice for Lawrence Frank: Jefferson: DNP (ankle).

Jefferson was listed as doubtful for the game after an MRI exam performed on his ankle yesterday came back negative. But you know he wants to play, much as he did for two weeks with torn ligaments in his wrist last year. If I were Frank, I’d duct tape him to a chair in the locker room and weld the door shut for good measure.

The issue here isn’t having a 75% effective Jefferson for Game 2, but having him as close to 100% as possible for the contests that follow. If Jefferson tries to come back, he’ll just slow the healing process and run the risk of reinjuring the ankle.

Not that the Nets should punt this one when they have a chance to go for the jugular. They can still win Game 2. Minus Jefferson, this is essentially last season’s Nets, but with an improved Nenad Krstic, a healthy Jacque Vaughn, and a weaker Heat squad as the opponent. The Nets may not be the favorite without Jefferson, but it is doable. The keys remain the same: Run as much as possible, have the guards attack the paint, and go after Walker any time he defends a perimeter player.

Getting first dibs on that last assignment will be Lamond Murray, who shot 2-for-10 as Jefferson’s replacement Monday. Murray is mostly a stand-still jump shooter, so he may not be able to exploit Walker as easily as others.That’s why Frank may turn to a few wild cards off the bench. One option is Vaughn, who certainly will improve the defense a notch, but playing two non-scorers in Vaughn and Collins will make it easy for Miami to send extra defenders at Carter and Kidd.

That brings up another X-factor: Zoran Planinic. He hasn’t had made the most of his few opportunities this year, but there’s no doubt he can make shots and, more importantly, create them for others. He can certainly take Walker off the dribble – the question is whether he can stop Walker at the defensive end. That would be a risk, but I’m guessing there are 20 minutes or so during which Frank can slip Planinic in and get a boost without killing the defense.

Fortunately, Frank has some latitude for experimentation because the Nets already took care of business in Game 1. And as long as Jefferson’s ankle is okay by Friday, they’ll still have the upper hand in this series. Thus, as disheartening as it must have been to see their no. 2 scorer go down, the big takeaway from Game 1 is that right now, it’s New Jersey’s series to lose.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast. He can be reached at jhollinger@nysun.com.


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