The Jets’ attempt to deal for wide receiver Laveranues Coles has gone from on-again to off-again so many times that Jets fans may be wondering if Gang Green has confused Coles with Randy Johnson. After this weekend, though, it looks like the trade to bring the prodigal son back from Washington in exchange for receiver Santana Moss is back on, as long as both players can pass physical exams by Tuesday.

There is no question that in bringing back Coles, the Jets are adding a receiver whose speed and elusiveness contributed mightily to Chad Pennington’s initial success as the starting quarterback in 2002. But there is significant evidence that the only differences between Coles and Moss are circumstances and personality. When it comes to performance over the past two seasons, Moss has actually been the better receiver.

Coles had 90 catches and 950 yards in 2004, while Moss had 45 catches and 838 yards. But Coles rang up those higher numbers because he was thrown more passes than Moss – he averaged only 10.6 yards per catch, compared to 18.6 yards per catch for Moss. Coles also caught fewer of the balls thrown to him (54%) than did Moss (58%). And 35 of Moss’s 45 catches were worth a first down or touchdown, compared to only 52 of Coles’s 90 catches.

According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings – which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent – Moss ranked eighth among NFL receivers in value per play. Coles ranked no. 71.

Moss had a better year than Coles in 2003 as well, though the difference between them was much smaller. Coles caught 82 passes for 1,204 yards, while Moss caught 74 passes for 1,105 yards. But Moss once again had a higher average of yards per catch (14.9 to 14.7), a higher percentage of passes caught (63% to 52%), and a higher DVOA rank (16th, compared to 36th for Coles).

True, Coles should not be blamed for the quarterback problems in Washington, where veteran Mark Brunell saw his abilities disintegrate before being mercifully pulled from the lineup halfway through the year. Nor can he be blamed for the conservative nature of the Joe Gibbs offense. But if we give Coles the benefit of the doubt on these issues, we must do the same for Moss.

Moss’s 2004 campaign clearly would have been better if not for the rotator cuff injury that robbed Pennington of his ability to throw deep. Moss’s yards per catch were cut nearly in half after Pennington’s return from injury in Week 13, and he caught only two passes of 20 yards or more over the season’s final five weeks, compared to 13 such catches in the first 11 games.

Moreover, Coles’s Redskins threw 75 more passes than the Jets in 2004 and 31 more passes in 2003. And the Redskins play three or four wide receivers far less often than the Jets, so Coles was splitting responsibility in the passing game with fewer teammates.

Another overlooked facet of Moss’s value is his role as a punt returner. Though he had an off-year in 2004, his punt returns over the past three seasons have been worth approximately 23 points of field position when compared to the NFL average; only Kansas City’s Dante Hall has been more valuable in that role.

None of this is to say that Coles’s numbers won’t improve dramatically thanks to his reunion with Chad Pennington. Back in 2002, his last season with the Jets, Coles ranked fifth among NFL receivers in DVOA (Moss, as the third receiver on that team, ranked 22nd).

But why were the Jets in such a hurry to trade Moss in the first place? Moss is often referred to as “undersized,” yet his listed height (5-foot-10) and weight (185 lbs.) are only one inch and eight pounds smaller than Coles. Critics allege that Moss is fragile, but the hamstring strain he suffered early in 2004 is not the kind of medical problem that constantly recurs, and his 2001 knee injury is about as meaningful to his 2005 performance as the case of chicken pox he had when he was 12.

In essence, the Jets have traded one receiver who was upset with the conservative nature of his offense for a receiver of roughly equal talent who was upset with the conservative nature of his offense. The only advantage for the Jets is that Coles has a history of getting along better with the quarterback.

How much is that history worth in dollars? Moss is due to receive only $448,000 in salary for 2005, but the Redskins are expected to announce a contract extension on Tuesday that will significantly raise his salary – and the cap space he takes up. As for Coles, the Redskins will take the cap hit for a $5 million bonus he is due on April 1, but the Jets have guaranteed $15 million in salary for Coles over the next three seasons.

If Coles costs the Jets only slightly more than Moss costs the Redskins, the Jets can safely argue that team chemistry and an attempt to recapture the magic of 2002 are worth a small premium. But if Moss’s extension is notably smaller than the money the Jets have guaranteed to Coles, they will have exchanged two receivers of similar quality at a significant financial cost. Come December, Jets fans may find themselves wishing that the team had used that cap space on a cornerback or a tight end.

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.