It’s hard to believe that in his heart of hearts, Tom Coughlin wasn’t rooting for the Giants to lose against the Washington Redskins last Sunday. Well, no, let’s rephrase that: No coach ever really wants his team to lose. Coughlin must have secretly been rooting for the Giants to win and the absurdly complicated NFL playoff system to sort itself out so that they would not make the postseason. Surely Coughlin must understand — how could he not? — that his team is in no way, shape, or form ready to win a playoff game, particularly against a team that is not only a fierce divisional rival but which may actually be, at this point, the best team in the conference.

The Giants won their season finale, but the victory did nothing to justify hope for the future. Against a weak offensive team, the Giants gave up four touchdowns and faltered badly in the second half. Once again, Eli Manning was terrible, a fact obscured by the win; he hit on just 12 of 26 passes for 101 yards, a horrendous average of 3.9 yards a throw. The only thing that worked for New York was Tiki Barber, who had to have the greatest day of his career — probably the greatest game ever by a Giants running back, with 234 yards — for the Giants to beat a lousy Redskins team by just six points.

Tiki won’t be rushing for anything like 234 yards against the Eagles in Philadelphia this Sunday. This is a reborn Eagles squad, much different from the team the Giants beat on September 17, 30–24, in a furious comeback. It’s not that the Eagles are a better offensive team with Jeff Garcia at quarterback than with Donovan McNabb; actually, they’re about the same with either passer taking the snaps. But their defense against both the run and the pass was significantly better over the second half of the season while the Giants were unraveling on both sides of the ball. The ugly fact for the Giants is that their 36–22 thrashing from the Eagles on December 17 at the Meadowlands probably reflects the difference between the two teams.

It took Jeff Garcia a couple of games to pick up on the Eagles system after McNabb’s injury, but after a 21–45 whipping from the Colts on November 26, Garcia and the Eagles have won five games in a row by a total of 42 points. In contrast, the Giants have played miserable football down the stretch. In the second half of the season they were 2–6 and their opponents outscored them by 57 points.

I could throw the mess of statistics at you, but here are the only ones that matter: Jeff Garcia, who threw just one pass before McNabb was sidelined, is averaging 7.0 yards a throw with 10 touchdowns against just two interceptions while Eli Manning averaged just 6.2 with 24 TDs and 18 INTs. The elusive Garcia has been sacked just six times in his seven starts, and the Giants pass rush, weak enough when Michael Strahan was in the lineup and impotent without him, will cause Garcia few anxious moments. The much stronger Philadelphia pass rush will harass Manning all afternoon, particularly when the Giants get behind — and they will fall behind. Tight end Jeremy Shockey, the Giants leading receiver with 66 catches, is doubtful this week with an ankle injury, and Plaxico Burress, their only deep threat (63 catches for a 15.7 yard average) has let the Giants down all season in big games. There just isn’t anyone else to throw to; Tiki Barber is primarily used as a dump-off whose 58 catches netted only 465 yards.

Last year’s 23–0 playoff humiliation to Carolina came as a shock to Giants fans. This year’s playoff loss will be even worse, but at least it won’t come as a shock. The Eagles are currently favored by seven points, but they’ll probably win by a score of around 31-10.

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Common sense says the Jets’ season, too, will end on Sunday, though their chances of winning are considerably better than their current nine-point underdog status indicates. The Jets have played the Patriots tough twice this year, losing at the Meadowlands 24–17 on September 17 and beating them in Foxboro 17–14 on November 12. Clearly, the Patriots are the better team, but just as clearly, Eric Mangini knows Bill Belichick’s game plans and has a knack for getting his old boss’s goat.

Since losing 41–0 to Jacksonville on October 8, the Jets have played good ball, winning eight of 11 and giving up more than 24 points only once in an improbable 31–13 loss to Buffalo. In fact, over the last 11 games, the Jets have given up fewer than 20 points eight times and 14 or fewer seven times — a fact that has gone largely unnoticed. They don’t have many All-Pro candidates on defense, but they know their assignments and aren’t likely to give up many cheap points to the Pats. On the offensive side of the ball, Chad Pennington actually posted numbers just about as good as Tom Brady’s: Brady had fewer interceptions, 12 to Pennington’s 16, but Pennington’s yards per pass average was slightly better, 6.91 to Brady’s 6.84.

The real difference between them is that the Patriots pass rush, with 44 sacks this year, is likely to put more pressure on Pennington in key situations than the Jets pass rush, which had 35 sacks this year, will be able to put on Brady. Another problem for the Jets is that Mangini has not yet shown the aggressive offensive mentality of his mentor. Belichick likes to throw early, score first, and deal from the position of strength, where Mangini, with limited firepower, prefers a more conservative approach. A conservative offense against the Patriots probably won’t get a nickel’s worth, and my guess is that Mangini now knows this and will have some new wrinkles for the Patriots defense.

It’s a lot to expect an underdog to win two consecutive meetings with a division foe on their field, but Mangini’s Jets have been doing unexpected things all season long, so I’ll take them by a field goal, 20–17.

Mr. Barra is the author of “The Last Coach: A Life of Paul ‘Bear’ Bryant.”