Jets, Patriots Meet for Control of AFC
This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

When the New York Jets meet the New England Patriots in Foxboro this Sunday, many people will see it as the logical extension of the rivalry between two cities, a rivalry which this week gave us such historic moments on the baseball field.
But the Jets and Patriots don’t require any Yankee-Red Sox metaphors in order to provide an engaging storyline. This rivalry also has history, filled with hard-fought games and reciprocal pilfering of genius coaches. Now it provides this season’s last chance to watch two undefeated teams go head to head.
The Jets and Patriots enter this game with similar records but not with similar reputations. The Patriots have won an NFL-record 20 straight games and are considered the best team in football. The Jets went 6-10 last season and had to come back in the second half to beat the lightly-regarded San Francisco 49ers last week.
Yet there are several similarities between the teams, beginning on offense. Each team features an intelligent, talented young quarterback who spreads the ball among multiple receivers and rarely makes a bad decision. New England’s Tom Brady has thrown only four interceptions in 2004; New York’s Chad Pennington only two.
The main difference between the two is that Pennington leads the NFL in passes to running backs with 58,including 29 to underrated fullback Jerald Sowell. Brady is near the bottom of the league with 19 passes to running backs, and the Patriots often replace the fullback with a second tight end.
Each team features an underrated offensive line that blocks well on both passing and rushing plays. The Jets and Patriots have each allowed only six sacks, less than half the league average for the season thus far. Both teams are near the bottom of the league in runs stuffed for loss or no gain.
Coincidentally, both teams are struggling with injuries on the line: Patriots right tackle Tom Ashworth is questionable with a bad back and Jets guards Pete Kendall and Brandon Moore are battling toe and hamstring injuries, respectively.
Each team also features a veteran running back experiencing a late-career resurgence. Curtis Martin of the Jets leads the league with 122.6 yards per game, and Corey Dillon of the Patriots is fifth with 104.4 yards. Both backs specialize in consistent success rather than spectacular runs.
Measured by a statistic called Running Back Success Rate, which judges each carry based on down and distance needed to continue the drive, Martin is the second-most consistent running back with at least 100 carries this season (59% success rate) while Dillon ranks as the fourth-most consistent (53% success rate).
The difference between the Jets and Patriots comes on defense, in particular pass defense. Before the season Jets fans were worried about a leaky secondary, and not much has changed. Gang Green has a rookie, Erik Coleman, at free safety, and a refugee from the Arizona Cardinals, David Barrett, at corner. They’ve allowed 6.7 net yards per pass play,10th highest in the NFL, while the Patriots have allowed only 5.7 net yards per pass play, 24th in the NFL.
Both teams have struggled in stopping the run this year, but in different ways. New England fans know that run defense has been the Achilles heel of their seemingly perfect team this season. They are last in the league at stuffing runs at the line of scrimmage or for a loss. And yet, just like in 2003, they are first in the league at preventing long runs more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.
Conventional wisdom says that the Patriots miss run-stuffing tackle Ted Washington, who signed with Oakland in the off-season, but the hole in the New England run defense has come on runs to the left. Surprisingly, that’s the home of the Patriots’ best defender, Richard Seymour. Opponents are double-teaming Seymour to take him out of the play and then running in that direction. It’s getting them good yardage, but no breakaways.
The Jets run defense is exactly the opposite. They are second in the league at stuffing runs at the line of scrimmage, but have allowed more yards per carry because they’ve allowed big plays. The Patriots have given up only six runs of double-digit yards, and no run longer than 16 yards. The Jets have allowed 11 runs of double-digit yards, and six runs that were as long as 16 yards or more.
All told, the Patriots and Jets are equal on offense, and the Patriots have an advantage on defense. But Jets fans can take heart in an advantage that few will notice: field position.
Using a formula that derives the value of field position from how often NFL teams score from each position on the field, the Jets’ punting unit has been worth roughly 3.1 points over league average this season. Only seven of 24 Jets punts have been returned this year (only San Diego has allowed a lower percentage of punts returned) and only one of those for longer than 12 yards.
The Patriots, on the other hand, have had the third-worst punt return unit in the league, losing 4.8 points worth of field position compared to NFL average.
If this game plays out according to form, both teams will successfully mix the run and the pass and make very few mistakes. The difference is that the New England defense is more likely to take advantage of the rare mistakes made by the Jets than the other way around.
Just as in any game, an unlucky turnover could change momentum, but expect Tom Brady to complete a few more passes through holes in the Jets’ coverage. There’s a good chance we’ll see Corey Dillon taking it to the house with a highlight-quality double-digit carry, and that should be the difference in the ballgame.
But if the Jets defense can play better than they have over the first five games of this season, and if Pennington is smart enough to adjust to the constantly changing New England defensive schemes, the Jets can avenge their baseball brethren with a streak-ending upset. This game is the Jets’ chance to prove they should be considered one of the top teams in the NFL. Twenty wins in a row is a great accomplishment, but a Jets win will make New England just another team in second place.
Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of FootballOutsiders.com.