Consider all 16 games equally, and these two teams are of roughly equal quality. But since Week 7, the Jets are 5-6, the Chargers 9-1.That simple statistic heralds the end of the season for Gang Green.

WHEN THE JETS HAVE THE BALL

San Diego and New York provide mirror images of how schedule strength and recent history affect our perceptions of a team. The common belief is that the Chargers have a high-powered offense and an average defense, while the Jets are fueled by a young defense and hindered by their passing game. And yet, according to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ratings – which break down each play of the season and compare it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent – the Jets had the better offense in 2004, the Chargers the better defense.

The main reason for the disconnect is strength of opponents. The Jets live in a division where all three rivals have strong defenses; they’ve played half their games this season against top-10 defenses. They’ve also faced a number of weak offenses from the AFC North and NFC West. The Chargers, meanwhile, play in a division built around offense, and their out-of-division games included offense-first teams like Indianapolis, Tennessee, and New Orleans.

Furthermore, the Jets’ offense rates better than you would expect simply because it was far better earlier in the year than in our recent memories. And while the Jets offense has worsened, the Chargers’ defense has steadily improved.

What about that high rating for the Jets’ red zone offense? While many Jets fans will dwell upon red zone failures last week in St. Louis and Week 10 in Baltimore, the Jets have actually played quite well in the red zone this season.

The explanation lies not so much in their ability to score touchdowns as in their avoidance of turnovers. It’s important to come out of the red zone with seven points instead of three, but it’s just as crucial to emerge with three points instead of zero. The Jets turned the ball over in the red zone only twice this season; one of those was the LaMont Jordan halfback option against the Ravens, and you can bet Paul Hackett won’t be calling that play again.

When Pennington injured his rotator cuff against Buffalo in early November, many Jets fans felt the season was over. The Jets did stumble into the playoffs, but since his return – with the exception of one strong game against Seattle – he has looked nothing like the fantastic young passer that led the Jets offense for parts of the past three seasons. Pennington’s lingering injured clearly has become a major detriment to his accuracy and ability to throw for distance.

That means that the Jets have to depend on their running game and short-range passes, which plays right into the Chargers’ defensive strength – the linebackers. Donnie Edwards, perhaps this season’s greatest Pro Bowl snub, has a knack for momentum-changing plays and defends well against both the run and the pass. Steve Foley, always considered too slow to be a linebacker but too small to be an end, has thrived as a pass rusher in Wade Phillips’s 3-4 defense.

The Jets boast a strong offensive line and two great running backs in Curtis Martin and LaMont Jordan, but their running game did have late-season problems against Pittsburgh and New England. Like the Chargers, both those teams run the 3-4 defense and wield linebackers that are strong against the run. As Peyton Manning showed, the way to beat the Chargers is to spread the field and confuse the secondary, but Pennington just can’t do that right now.

WHEN SAN DIEGO HAS THE BALL

The shocking turnaround by the San Diego offense this year hinges almost entirely on their third-down conversions. Last year, the Chargers ranked 27th in DVOA on third downs. This season, they ranked fourth. Much of that owes to the emergence of tight end Antonio Gates, who this season caught 29 third- or fourth-down passes for first downs or touchdowns. The rest of his teammates combined to catch only 32.

The other change this year came from the San Diego offensive line. Not a single player on this line played a down for the Chargers in 2003.

San Diego traded for left tackle Roman Oben from Tampa Bay, and he made an immediate impact. Left guard Toniu Fonoti, who missed all of 2003 with an injury, finally showed the physical drive-blocking ability the Chargers expected when they drafted him out of Nebraska. From a run blocking perspective, the Chargers are even stronger on the right side with quick-learning rookie right tackle Shane Olivea and ex-Bengal right guard Mike Goff.

Ironically enough, San Diego’s offensive explosion occurred despite a subpar first half from star running back LaDainian Tomlinson. He struggled with groin injuries, and according to Football Outsiders’ Running Back Success Rate, Tomlinson was successful on only 42% of his carries through the first nine weeks. But he gradually improved over the season, and was successful on 49% of his carries after San Diego’s Week 10 bye. He is particularly strong on third downs, a trait he shares with both his quarterback and his opposite number Curtis Martin.

Jets fans will look at Gang Green’s league-leading +17 turnover margin and expect some San Diego turnovers. But that margin comes mostly from the fact that the Jets committed the league’s fewest turnovers on offense, only 11 interceptions and five lost fumbles. Furthermore, Drew Brees threw only seven interceptions this season.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is a distinct advantage for the Jets. In fact, it is another reason for the mistaken public perception about the defense; part of why the Jets prevent other teams from scoring is that the opposing teams generally start off in poor field position after each punt and kickoff.

Jets kicker Doug Brien is much better than Chargers kicker Nate Kaeding. The San Diego rookie kicked the ball out of bounds five times this year, Brien zero. Kaeding had only two touchbacks, Brien seven. The Chargers allowed 11 kick returns over 30 yards, the Jets only five. Brien is also more accurate on field goals.

OUTLOOK

Like every other game this weekend, this is a rematch, but things were very different when these teams first faced each other four months ago. The Jets controlled Brees easily, and it took a fourth-quarter comeback by backup Doug Flutie to make it a close 34-28 Jets win. Brees is playing far better now, and so is the San Diego defense, while Pennington is playing far worse. In other words, it is unlikely that the Jets’ season will continue past this weekend.

The Pick: Chargers

Mr. Schatz is the editor in chief of Football Outsiders. Michael David Smith of Football Outsiders provided extra research for these articles. For more state-of-the-art football content, please visit www.footballoutsiders.com.