Three things were accomplished yesterday at the draw to decide the post positions for the final 20 entries in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. Most important, the connections draw lots and select where in the gate their horses will start their runs. Heavy strategy is involved: Speed horses, rabbits, and closers all have different needs and different strategies and they are all, um, jockeying for whatever advantage they can get.

For the most part, I’ve come to think it’s hot air. There are two kinds of horses in the Derby: those that can handle the traffic and those that can’t. If your horse can’t survive the first run past the grandstand, where all the horses smash into one another trying to get to the first turn, then there is no spot in the gate that will help set him up. If, on the other hand, your pony has the tactical speed and tractability to get through the mash-up, then he won’t get stuck eating mud, or he won’t care.

An excellent demonstration of post-position irrelevance was the 2001 Derby in which 10.5-1 shot Monarchos started from the 16th hole and was bumped by the heavy favorite, Point Given, starting from position 17. Monarchos was forced in on a horse named Jamaican Rum, ran wide for most of the race and was still out in the five path when he started his sweeping run to victory on the second turn. The race had set up for him in other ways, of course: The pace up front was blistering, and all the horses he passed were tired. Point Given also ran wide and had steadily improved his position after bumping Monarchos at the start. He, however, was too tired to close the deal. The horse that will overcome, in other words, will overcome. Point Given had the excuse of starting from the 17th slot, but Monarchos, only one position to the left, had the roses.

If I were Doug O’Neill, would I prefer to have Great Hunter in the six slot rather than hanging on the outside? Yes. Will it cost him the Derby? Not if he’s a Derby winner.

The second, sillier thing that the draw accomplishes is that it generates momentum, it’s a kickoff for Derby Weekend. It’s buzzing down there in Louisville, and people are all walking around with “Talk Derby to Me” buttons on. Those people need something to talk about for the 45 minutes between the moment their hangovers end and their next julep drunk begins.

The third thing is that the odds are set. Obviously, in parimutuel wagering, the odds are whatever the bettors make them, but they must start somewhere. We call the starting point the morning line, and this year that’s the most interesting bit.

Mike Battaglia, who sets the morning line, is a smart man with a hard job. He’s got to look at the field and consider what chance each horse has of winning the Derby. Then he must handicap the bettors and look at the past performances to see which horses will be popular. Then he’s got to combine those impressions.

To make matters worse, his decisions will affect the same pattern of betting he’s trying to predict. After all, if Battaglia made Curlin a 15-to-1 shot (and everything Battaglia said to Tom Pedulla in USA Today on Tuesday indicates that in his heart of hearts, as a probability, that’s the best he thinks the horse should be: “I personally wouldn’t bet a dime on Curlin,” he said), Curlin would be bet very differently.

Instead of putting him at 15–1, however, Curlin has been made the favorite at 7–2. Mike Watchmaker, who sets the morning line for the Daily Racing Form, had Curlin as the favorite all week, but had a last minute change of heart, and bumped in to the second shortest odds, with Street Sense on top.

Curlin is undefeated in his short career, and during those three races he’s opened up by a combined 28 lengths. Bettors are going to love him. He is going to take money like he’s D.B. Cooper. In the back of everyone’s mind is that someday one of these flashy freaks that come into the Derby off of a short series of crazy victories (like Bellamy Road two years ago) is going to win. And of course, it’s only a matter of time until one of them pulls it off.

But very few serious handicappers think Curlin is going to make that happen, if for no other reason than this is not the Grade II Arkansas Derby, the stage for Curlin’s last crushing victory, but the Grade I Kentucky Derby, and the horses in this race are the best 3-year-olds in the country, period.

For the most part, the odds set on Curlin have little to do with handicapping horses, and everything to do with handicapping the way people bet. I think that’s disappointing. “Derby favorite” has a resonance to it. It should be a matter of pride. The Derby favorite should be the horse that the best handicappers in the country believe to be the best — not the most popular — contender.

Our best handicappers should be smarter than the mob of bettors pushing money through the till on Derby day. In fact, I believe that’s their job description.

Here’s the bright side: If all the money is going toward Curlin, that leaves some excellent horses for reasonable people. Nobiz like Shobiz at 8–1? Sign me up. To look at the middle of this field, not even the middle, but just the second tier, is to have one’s eyes flash like cartoon slot machines: Circular Quay at 8–1? Scat Daddy at 10–1? Great Hunter at 15–1? Are you kidding me?

Race fans: Get your wallets.

Mr. Watman is the author of “Race Day: A Spot on the Rail With Max Watman.”