Okay, I know what you’re thinking. You’ve got 63 blank spaces staring back at you and a floor full of co-workers you’re trying to impress with your basketball expertise. And because you’re overworked and underpaid, you’ve barely had time to catch a game all season. Don’t worry, I’m here to help.

By following a few basic rules, we can get through this thing together. No, I’m not guaranteeing that you’ll win your NCAA tournament pool – it’s going to take some luck to pull that off. But what I can guarantee is that you won’t royally screw it up, and you’ll probably stay in the hunt until the final couple of rounds.

Let’s go region by region through the bracket and see where we end up:

ATLANTA

Here’s the one salient point you need to know in the Atlanta region: Duke and Texas are quite possibly the two best teams in the country. Picking anybody else to meet in the regional final seriously endangers your bracket’s health. I’m picking Duke over Texas, but if you get a wild hair and want to pick Texas, go for it. Duke has better odds, but they’re offset by the fact that many more people will pick the Blue Devils.

Now for the rest of the bracket. Did you know that a no. 12 seed has beaten a no. 5 in 14 of the past 16 tournaments? That’s why no. 12 Texas A&M intrigues me against no. 5 Syracuse. The Orange had a great run in the Big East tournament, but let’s step back a minute – they had four narrow escapes, winning by a combined eight points, and have been wildly inconsistent the entire season, as their 39-point blowout loss to DePaul two weeks ago would attest. The Aggies, meanwhile, are as hot as any team in the country. They had won eight in a row before losing by four to mighty Texas in the Big 12 semifinals, and have a great shot at knocking off the ‘Cuse on Thursday.

Otherwise, stick to the seeds. No. 3 Iowa could be vulnerable in the second round against no. 6West Virginia, but it’s not worth sticking your neck out, and the other favorites should breeze through.

OAKLAND

This region is trickier because the most talented team, Kansas, is only seeded fourth and has a very tough slate early on. The regional semifinal between Kansas and Memphis looks to be a toss-up, while a second-round match between the Jayhawks and no. 5 Pitt should be a tough one as well. I’m still picking Kansas to win the region, but if you want to take Memphis or UCLA, I can see the logic.

One team you absolutely should not be picking is Gonzaga. The Zags have been a tournament darling for years, but they’re something of a fraud this season. Despite a no. 3 seeding, Gonzaga has a decent chance of losing to Xavier in the first round and, if not, probably will lose to no. 6 Indiana in the second.

The team benefiting from Gonzaga’s fraudulence is no. 2 UCLA, which has a relatively easy path to the regional final. I wouldn’t bet on the Bruins against either Kansas or Memphis, but their remarkably easy path to that game makes them an intriguing Final Four pick. Other than the Indiana-Gonzaga game, there aren’t any early upsets to be had, so let’s fill in the favorites in the rest of this region’s bracket and move on.

WASHINGTON, D.C.

This grouping has two contenders – Connecticut and North Carolina – amid several pretenders. UConn could get a test from Illinois or Washington in the Sweet 16, but still seems like a good bet to make the regional final. UNC, meanwhile, seems a virtual lock to make it that far after finishing hot and getting placed in an extremely weak bracket. I like the Tar Heels to win the region because they played better down the stretch, but a Connecticut pick could easily be justified, too. Avoid no. 2 seed Tennessee, which could be tested by no. 15 Winthrop in the opening round.

Now, for the nitty gritty stuff. In the first round, let’s start with Michigan State-George Mason. George Mason actually has been a better team than the Spartans most of the season, but their best player is suspended for this game after sucker-punching a Hofstra player in their conference tournament. As a result, the Spartans should survive.

No. 10 Seton Hall has also been a popular pick against Wichita State, but I’d steer clear. Yes, the Shockers are overseeded at no. 7, but as I’ve discussed before, the Pirates are an NIT team and will be exposed as such.

Round 2 presents a conundrum in the 4-5 game between Illinois and Washington. The teams are virtually even on paper, but the West Coast location (San Diego) favors the Huskies, so I’ll go with no. 5 Washington to pull a micro-upset in this one. Otherwise, it’s back to all the favorites, so fill in those higher seeds and move on.

MINNEAPOLIS

No. 4 Boston College has been a popular pick here based on its strong ACC tournament run, but I’m not seeing it. Maybe it was because I saw the Eagles get rolled by 14 at Virginia three weeks ago, but no. 1 Villanova, no. 3 Florida, and no. 2 Ohio State all seem much stronger contenders to me. One item of note: ‘Nova could be hurt by Allan Ray’s gruesome eye injury suffered in the Big East tournament, although he’ll supposedly be back on the court this weekend. The Wildcats have a pretty easy ride to the regional final, however.

The lower half of the bracket is where it gets tricky. No. 2 Ohio State, no. 3 Florida, and no. 7 Georgetown all are roughly equal in terms of their on-court results, so it wouldn’t surprise me if any of them made the regional final. On a subjective level, Florida’s talent is eyepopping. Center Joakim Noah, forward Al Horford, and guard Corey Brewer are potential NBA lottery picks, and that makes me lean toward the Gators to win the region. Other than Florida, however, fill in all the favorites to advance.

THE FINAL FOUR

If you’ve noticed a trend here, I picked very few upsets in the early rounds – you can only screw up your pool at that point – but stepped it up later. That gives us a Final Four with a no. 1 seed (Duke), two no. 3s (Florida and North Carolina), and one no. 4 (Kansas). But you could just as easily make a case for a final quartet of Texas, UCLA, Connecticut, and Villanova.

In the Final Four round, however, there are some clear differences between the regional champs. You definitely want to pick the Atlanta winner (Duke or Texas) over the Oakland winner (Kansas, UCLA, or Memphis),and then to win the national title, because Duke and Texas have been the most talented teams all season. Similarly, take the Washington, D.C., winner (UConn or North Carolina) over the Minneapolis winner (Florida, Villanova, or Ohio State) for the same reasons. So in my example, I have Duke over North Carolina in the final.

Most of all, enjoy the tournament, because your bracket is likely to come down to a lucky bounce or a shaky call somewhere down the line. In a single elimination tournament, that’s just how it works. In closing then, let me wish you and your bracket good luck, because regardless of how well-informed your picks are, you’re going to need it.

Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast.