Less than one point – that’s the margin separating the top three skaters after Tuesday’s ladies’ short program. And one point is nothing in figure skating’s new scoring system: just one slightly better jump, one slightly harder spin.

That’s a trifling amount to make up in tonight’s final, which is why none of the three skaters at the top – American Sasha Cohen, Russia’s Irina Slutskaya, and Japan’s Shizuka Arakawa – is resting on her laurels. Tonight they essentially start over, winner take all.

Even smaller is the margin by which Cohen, the 2005 World silver medalist, leads Slutskaya, the 2005 World champion – an insignificant 0.03 points. But it wasn’t insignificant to Cohen, who pumped her fist and roared when she saw her name post to the top of the leaderboard after her short program.

It might seem obvious that beating Slutskaya matters to Cohen – but for years, watching Cohen skate nonchalantly into second-place and accept silver medals with equanimity, one had to wonder if she really cared about winning. Tuesday night, the 21-year-old Cohen looked hungrier than she’s ever looked. And it showed in her skating. She concentrated and fought for every hundredth of a point – knowing, perhaps, that she would need them all.

Cohen’s fiery start ignited what was supposed to be a walk in the park for the favored Slutskaya. But the stunning performance of Japan’s Arakawa, a former World champion who is peaking just in time for Turin, transformed the final into a sizzling three-horse race.

Tonight, Cohen skates first among the leaders – a good position in terms of nerves. Skating only 10 minutes after the warm-up, Cohen will be loose and won’t have to wait long to compete. But since she won’t have the luxury of knowing her opponents’ marks, Cohen will have to be perfect. Watch for her first critical jump combination – if she misses it, gold is probably out of reach. But don’t relax until she hits her final pose; Cohen is notorious for lapses of concentration near the end of the program, and her triple Salchow, one of her last jumps, gives her fits.

Arakawa, who has looked clean and confident in practice, follows Cohen with a program that, if perfectly executed, could be worth more technically. The problem for Arakawa is that she frequently under-rotates her triple jumps, going only two-and-a-half turns instead of three. Under the old system (which crowned Arakawa World champion) “cheating” the rotation didn’t matter, but now it carries stiff penalties. When her marks come up, watch to see if she gets credit for triple jumps or double jumps – a factor that could spell the difference between gold and bronze.

Slutskaya is the final skater of the evening. If Cohen and Arakawa falter, she’ll be able to claim gold with a simplified version of her program. But should they both turn in brilliant skates, the pressure on Slutskaya will be unimaginable. She’ll have to land her triple-triple combination, something she hasn’t been doing in practice. She’ll be skating for the one title she’s never been able to win – and after all, at 27, she’s two years older than Michelle Kwan.

Slutskaya already has a silver from Salt Lake City 2002, and she no doubt remembers how she cracked just the slightest bit under the pressure, opening the door for another American, Sarah Hughes. If that wasn’t enough, she’ll have the hopes of an entire nation on her – Slutskaya is trying to complete an unprecedented Russian sweep of the Olympic figure skating disciplines.

Sixteen-year-old American Kimmie Meissner, currently in fifth, has an outside shot at the bronze if she delivers a great program and others stumble, as does Japan’s Fumie Suguri. But the real focus is on the top three. The medals are theirs to seize – or squander.

The Star Who Never Took the Ice

Fifteen-year-old Mao Asada of Japan is arguably the world’s best female skater. So why isn’t she in Turin? Under International Skating Union rules, Asada is too young to compete at the Olympics. ISU rules state that every skater must have turned 15 by July 1, 2005 in order to compete in Turin; Asada’s birthday is in September.

Asada became the first skater to beat Irina Slutskaya in almost two years when she edged the Russian at the Grand Prix in Tokyo this past December. She’s also the only female skater to land two triple Axels in one program, which is all the more impressive when you consider that no woman in Turin plans to try even one triple Axel in her program. Asada also happens to be delightful – a joyous, natural kid who lights up crowds with her sheer enthusiasm.

Asada’s case was a cause celebre in Japan, where the prime minister spoke out in favor of her right to compete. After all, ISU rules allow 14-year-olds to compete at the World Championships.

But the Japanese federation’s appeal fell on deaf ears, leaving Asada out of the competition – and clearing a path for her rivals. You can bet Slutskaya was pleased, as she stood on the second step of the podium at the Grand Prix Final, to know that Asada, the girl in first, was not coming to Turin.

In recent years, as women’s skating has become more technically demanding, Olympic champions have been young and fearless: 16-year-old Sarah Hughes, 15-year-old Tara Lipinski, 16-year-old Oksana Baiul. One can’t help but wonder if Turin was meant to be Mao Asada’s Olympics.