Let the Games Begin

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The New York Sun

Now that all our brackets are filled out, let the games begin! For local basketball fans, today is the more important of the two days of first-round games that kick off the NCAA Tournament, as three teams with local ties are in action.


It starts with Seton Hall, who tips off the tournament in Greensboro at 12:20. So if you’re a Pirate fan, be sure to tell the boss you have a “meeting” with a “client” in the early afternoon and slink out to watch. Later in the evening, Iona faces a stiff test against no. 4 seed LSU in Jacksonville, and Big East champion Syracuse – who became New York’s unofficial adopted team this past week – meets Texas A&M in the final set of games.


Thirteen other contests fill out the slate, at least if you want to call Duke vs. Southern and UCLA vs. Belmont “contests.” Of course, the great thing about the NCAA Tournament is that we never quite know what to expect, so perhaps one or more of the many double-digit seeds playing today will pull off a surprise.A couple clubs in particular – no. 14 Xavier in the Oakland region and no. 15 Winthrop in the Atlanta region – certainly have the goods to do it.


But enough of my rambling. Let’s take a look at the games:


WASHINGTON , D.C. REGION


(7) WICHITA ST. VS. (10) SETON HALL
Thursday, 12:20 p.m., Greensboro


Wichita St. may not be a household name, but Seton Hall will have its hands full in this one. The Pirates’ interior defense will be under siege, as MVC Player of the Year Paul Miller anchors the Shockers’ offense from the low block. The 6-foot-10-inch, 250-pounder doesn’t just rely on brute force – he has a nice touch around the basket and can find the open man. And if Seton Hall sags too much, wings Sean Ogirri (44.6%) and Kyle Wilson (43.4%) both shoot the lights out on 3-pointer, an area where Seton Hall has been burned all season.


The Pirates’ biggest advantage is in the backcourt. Leading scorer Donald Copeland is only 5-foot-10, 170, but that still gives him 15 pounds on Wichita State’s diminutive Matt Brauer. If Copeland can get fouls on Brauer, it should translate into trouble at the other end for WSU because backup Karon Bradley isn’t nearly as comfortable running the offense. Incidentally, Pirates coach and former Knick Louis Orr may need to win this game to keep his job. Rumors out of East Orange say he’s on shaky ground.


(2) TENNESSEE VS. (15) WINTHROP
Thursday, 2:50 p.m., Greensboro


If you’re looking for a Godzilla-sized upset, this is one game to watch. A no. 15 seed has only won a first-round tournament game four times, but the Eagles have a great shot at being the fifth. Winthrop relies heavily on college basketball’s great equalizer, the 3-pointer, taking 21 a game. That gives them a puncher’s chance against anyone, and it shows in their results. They beat Marquette on the road and scared the willies out of Notre Dame before losing by three.


Tennessee is still the favorite of course – guards C.J. Watson and Chris Lofton will be extremely tough for the Eagles to contain, especially since Lofton has a gorgeous shooting stroke and Winthrop likes to play zone. But I’d be willing to bet that with five minutes to go, this game will be a nail-biter.


(5) WASHINGTON VS. (12) UTAH STATE
Thursday, 9:55 p.m., San Diego


Utah State is shocked just to be here after getting a surprise bid on Sunday. They may be equally shocked by what awaits, because the methodical Aggies will have trouble contending with Washington’s pace and quickness. Brandon Roy is the Huskies’ star, a potential NBA lottery pick who, at 6-foot-6, will have at least three inches on whoever guards him. Offensively, Utah State pounds the ball inside to efficient power forward Nate Harris, who shot an insane 62.2% from the floor. Still, Washington has too many weapons in this one.


(4) ILLINOIS VS. (13) AIR FORCE
Thursday, 7:25 p.m., San Diego


The Illini made the national championship game a year ago and have enough talent to make it back with a little luck. Illinois only has two double-digit scorers, and one of them, point guard Dee Brown, shot a miserable 36.7% from the floor this year. But defensively, this team is awesome. Brown is a lightning quick pest, wingman Brian Randle is one of the nation’s top stoppers, and center James Augustine adds mettle inside. With only one starter taller than 6-foot-6, Air Force will be overwhelmed physically.


ATLANTA REGION


(4) LSU VS. (13) IONA
Thursday, 7:10 p.m., Jacksonville


Iona earned a tournament bid with a retro-themed squad. Their coach is former Gaels great Jeff Ruland, and starters Steve Burtt and Gary Springer are the namesake sons of former Iona stars. Burtt’s 25.2 points per game rank eighth in the nation, but Iona lost five times in the weak MAAC and will have to raise its game in a big way to compete with the likes of LSU.


The Tigers’ biggest threat is 6-foot-9-inch, 310-pound Glenn “Big Baby” Davis, the SEC Player of the Year, who outweighs Springer by 80 pounds in the middle. Next to him, athletic freshman forward Tyrus Thomas is a rising star who could be a top-five pick in this year’s NBA draft. Add in the athleticism of 6-foot-7-inch freshman Tasmin Mitchell and the shooting of point guard Darrel Mitchell, and it’s easy to see how the Gaels could get blown away. To stay close, Iona must pressure LSU’s guards so they can’t get the ball inside, and draw fouls to make the Tigers use their weak bench.


(5) SYRACUSE VS. (12) TEXAS A&M
Thursday, 9:40 p.m, Jacksonville


Despite Syracuse’s memorable Big East title run, Texas A&M has a great shot at the upset. To pull it off they’ll need to hit some 3-pointers against Syracuse’s trademark zone defense, but the Aggies weren’t particularly strong in that area this season. One advantage A &M should have, however, is in the paint, where 6-foot-9-inch Joseph Jones (15.8 ppg) is a major threat.


Offensively, Syracuse’s shooting is a sore point. The Orange’s top three scorers shot 35.7%, 43.0%, and 44.7%, respectively, and those numbers don’t figure to go up against the Aggies’ tough man-to-man defense. It may be up to Gerry McNamara to ride to the rescue one more time.


(1) DUKE VS. (16) SOUTHERN
Thursday, 9:40 p.m., Greensboro


If Southern wins this one, it’s the greatest upset in the history of sports. Let’s move on.


(8) GEORGE WASHINGTON VS. (9) NC-WILMINGTON
Thursday, 7:10 p.m., Greensboro


The big question mark here is the status of GW’s Pops Mensah-Bonsu. The Colonials’ big man hurt his knee late in the season and was hoping to return in time for a first-round tournament game, but that looks doubtful. Without him, GW is vulnerable inside. Fortunately for GW, NC-Wilmington wasn’t deserving of a no.9 seed and is beatable even without Pops. Forwards Mike Hall and Omar Williams give GW superior athleticism, so if the game turns into a track meet, the Seahawks are cooked.


MINNEAPOLIS REGION


(4) BOSTON COLLEGE VS. (13) PACIFIC
Thursday, 12:40 p.m., Salt Lake City


Better put some Starbucks in the Gatorade cooler, boys. Not only is Pacific overmatched in this one, they’re also playing at 9:40 a.m. BC is extremely one-dimensional offensively, constantly pounding the ball inside to Jared Dudley and Craig Smith, but they defend well and are so physical that teams have troubling stopping them even though they know what’s coming.


(5) NEVADA VS. (12) MONTANA
Thursday, 3:10 p.m., Salt Lake City


In the battle of “Why Are They Seeded This High,” Nevada forward Nick Fazekas should be the difference. The 6-foot-11-inch junior is likely headed to the NBA next fall, with an inside-outside combo that netted 21.8 points and 10.3 boards this season. This game at least will be entertaining, however, because neither side plays much defense. Montana is especially porous, but look for the Bobcats to pile up enough points to make things interesting for the first 30 minutes or so.


(6) OKLAHOMA VS. (11) WISCONSIN-MILWAUKEE
Thursday, 12:25 p.m., Jacksonville


One of last year’s Cinderellas, Wisconsin-Milwaukee doesn’t have a great match-up this time around. UWM likes to pressure full-court, but Sooners guard Terrell Everett is a dynamic playmaker who should carve up the press, while 6-foot-9-inch Taj Gray can finish what Everett starts. The Panthers’ leading scorer, Joah Tucker, is a 6-foot-5-inch post player who may have trouble finishing against the bigger Sooners.


(3) FLORIDA VS. (14) S. ALABAMA
Thursday, 2:55 p.m., Jacksonville


The Gators fantastic sophomore class gelled down the stretch to win the SEC Tournament, led by center Joakim Noah. The son of former tennis great Yannick Noah, he’s a high-energy type who gets lots of hustle baskets, and he’d completely dominate if the Gators ever had to play on clay courts. As for South Alabama, the Jags will try to keep things close by chucking bucketfuls of 3-pointers, but their biggest starter is 6-foot-7 and nobody averaged more than 4.4 rebounds per game. Also, this is essentially a road game for them.


OAKLAND REGIONAL


(7) MARQUETTE VS. (10) ALABAMA
Thursday, 2:40 p.m., San Diego


Marquette’s fabulous freshman failed their first big-game test, losing the Big East tournament opener to Georgetown. The trio of Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, and Wesley Matthews will get another dose of highstakes pressure against ‘Bama, and should fare better this time.


The Crimson Tide lost leading scorer Chuck Davis halfway through the season and now are dependent on the play of guard Ronald Steele and athletic big man Jermareo Davidson. Steele in particular has been brilliant, and I like that one of ‘Bama’s starters is named Hollinger, but the Tide have no bench and Marquette’s 6-foot-10-inch shooting ace, Steve Novak, should give them serious match-up problems.


(3) GONZAGA VS. (14) XAVIER
Thursday, 7:20 p.m., Salt Lake City


Xavier might be favored in this game if it had its full contingent, but with star forward Brian Thornton out with a broken ankle and guard Dedrick Finn kicked off the team, they’re short two Musketeers. Even still, Xavier’s streamlined roster won the Atlantic 10 tournament, and defensive specialist Justin Cage could bother Gonzaga’s star forward Adam Morrison. Morrison looks like he just stopped by the gym on his way to the food court at Garden State Plaza, but he led the nation in scoring at 28.4 points per game and will be asked to carry the otherwise overmatched Bulldogs throughout the tournament.


(6) INDIANA VS. (11) SAN DIEGO ST. Thursday, 9:40 p.m., Salt Lake City


Hoosiers coach Mike Davis already has announced he’s moving on after the season, but that may not be for a few more days, because the Hoosiers have a very winnable bracket and are playing their best ball of the season. Davis plays with four guards and likes to shoot the 3-pointer, but big man Marco Killingsworth is a beast down low who keeps defenses honest.


The Aztecs, however, have a size edge in this one with 6-foot-9-inch stud Marcus Slaughter and 6-foot-10-inch center Mohamed Abukar, have already won in this building (a 72-67 win over Utah in January), and have the time zone working in their favor. If streaky guard Brandon Heath (18.5 ppg, but 42.7% shooting) can find the range, the Aztecs could pull the upset.


(2) UCLA VS. (15) BELMONT
Thursday, 5:10 p.m, San Diego


This is the so-called “phantom” game that doesn’t get shown to most of the nation so CBS can broadcast the all-important local news (hey, we gotta know about those apartment fires). In this case, they’re sparing you the agony. Belmont is perhaps the worst defensive team in the tournament, and UCLA guards Jordan Farmar and Aaron Aflallo lead the Bruins into round two.



Mr. Hollinger is the author of the 2005-06 Pro Basketball Forecast.


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