By mid-April, the trail to the Kentucky Derby is typically wet with the tears of the broken-hearted. It’s a hard road, many horses simply fail, and others are injured along the way. But all across the country this year, horses are turning in races better than expected of them. The Derby gate is getting crowded.

There have only been a few highly visible defections. First Samurai’s failure to get 1 1/8 mile in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland last week was not really a surprise – even the jockeys riding him seemed unsure of his distance ability. Last year’s 2-year-old of the year, Stevie wonderboy, was injured early in 2006 after racing only once as a 3-year-old.(He had surgery and is slated to return to the track later this year.) Corinthian was knocked off the trail with an injury.

But the most disappointing defection is Discreet Cat. Earlier this week, Go dolphin Stables announced, after a suspiciously long deliberation which cast much doubt on the condition and ability of the horse, that Discreet Cat is coming to America, but he’s pointed at races later in the year and won’t run in any of the Triple Crown events. The Cat won the March 25 UAE Derby at Nad al Sheba racecourse in wonderful style. He was lengths off the lead through most of the race, made a move on the turn to reel in the leaders, and exploded on the stretch to win the race going away.

We’ve seen some good races this year won by some very good horses. Not only did Discreet Cat’s performance shine even among these diamonds, it was exactly the kind of style that would win the Kentucky Derby.

The Big Horses pointed at the Derby have made it to the gate by running right up on the pace. Peruse the past performance lines of the top horses slated to run for the Roses, and you’ll see that they rarely run any further back in the field than second. Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsaint, Lawyer Ron, Barbaro, Sinister Minister – they may not be the pace setters, but they put themselves in the race right away.

Last year, Giacomo turned in the biggest upset at the Derby, 50-1, since Donerail took the race in 1913 at 91-1, and he did it because of pace. There were a lot of hot horses in the gate, a lot of pace pushing frontrunners, and Spanish Chestnut went as a rabbit, got out front, and tore through the first quarter in 22:28,the fourth fastest quarter mile ever. The field went along for the ride, and by the time they hit the stretch, they were dragging home as if weighted with cinderblocks.

The shot at the wire was wide open. Any horse capable of standing on four feet could take it because there was no real closer in the pack.

This year, Discreet Cat’s role was to be the solid closer. He allowed the pace to run off in front of him in the UAE Derby. He’s not a horse to get stuck in a speed duel.

I had been thinking this would be a recipe for success. Now I’m thinking the race is wide open.

There are only two more graded stakes races to go before the Derby, and the Withers at Aqueduct won’t add anything to the Derby scene because it’s only a week before the race and it’s in New York. Closer to Churchill Downs, however, is the Grade 2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, run over 1 1/16 miles on Saturday with a $325,000 purse. It’s typically the last chance to get in the gate,and things are no different this year.

There are several starters there with their eyes on the roses. Greeley’s Legacy, Hemingway’s Key, Showing Up, and Sacred Light all need graded stakes earnings to get into the gate at Churchill. Like Now holds the precarious 20th spot – the cut-off point. The probable favorite for the Lexington is Barclay Taggtrained Showing Up.

Showing Up has two victories under his belt, both at Gulfstream. If he can take the Lexington Stakes and go on to the Derby, it will be the first time the Derby Gate held two undefeated horses owned by the same stables (Lael Stables also owns Barbaro).

“It’s probably not the smartest thing in the world to try and push him into something like the Derby” Tagg told the Thoroughbred Times. “But we’ll put him in [the Lexington] and see how he does around two turns.”

Tagg is never exactly optimistic – that’s pretty much equal to him saying that he and the owners really want this horse in the Derby, and think very highly of him. He’s still got to run well in the Lexington, of course, but at least he’s got the track on his side. Keeneland is very favorable for speedy horses (you thought Sinister Minister had god on his side last week?), and Showing Up plans on showing up early.

The other short-odds runner in the Lexington will be Like Now, yet another speedster.

Trainer Kiarin McLaughlin told the Daily Racing Form that “if [Like Now] were to win the race like Sinister Minister, the heck with being smart and thinking it’s too much pace. There’s only one Derby for 3-year-olds, and if the owners want to go, I’m happy to go. If he were to win by five or more, it’s hard to tell the owners they can’t run in the Derby.”

Just what we need: more speed.

mwatman@nysun.com