A Look Inside the Numbers Aids Detroit

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

The Yankees’ Game 1 batting order against lefty Nate Robertson will be Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Gary Sheffield, Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui, Jorge Posada, and Robinson Cano.

Cano, who hit .342 during this season, may seem like the world’s most overqualified ninth place hitter, but Joe Torre knows what he’s doing; Cano hit .287 against lefties this year but with zero home runs. Abreu hit just three home runs off of lefties this year, all of them with the Phillies. The switch-hitting Posada hit just three home runs in 137 at bats against southpaws. Robertson was especially tough on lefties this year, holding them to a .182 average with just two homers in 193 at bats. Game 3 starter Kenny Rogers was also cruel for lefties, keeping them to .200/.296/.352 rates.

The Yankees offense would seem to have it all over that of the Tigers. The Bombers finished second in the American League in batting average, first in on-base percentage, and third in slugging percentage, while the Tigers finished ninth, 12th, and fifth in those categories. However, when isolated power — extra-base hits per time at-bat is considered, the two teams are very closely matched. The Yankees’ isolated power was .176, while the Tigers’ was .175. Or consider home run rates. The Yankees homered once every 26.9 at bats. The Tigers homered once every 27.4 at bats. The Yankees did hold a decisive edge in walks. In short, the Yankees are more likely to get a single or take a walk than the Tigers, but the Tigers are just as likely as the Yankees to hit the ball into the gaps or send it over the wall.

On the mound, Detroit’s bullpen had an ERA of 3.51, second best in the AL. Despite Mariano Rivera, the Yankees’ pen was less successful, posting a 4.18 ERA.

Still, the difference between the two was more artistic than qualitative. The main value of the Detroit pen is in its set-up relievers. Lefties Jamie Walker and Wil Ledezma were very hard on lefty hitters. Ledezma held them to .241/.286/.304 and didn’t allow a home run. Walker (like Mike Myers) was hit hard by lefties when they did touch him (12 extra-base hits in 19 total hits allowed) but that didn’t happen all that often. No batters, left, right, or swinging a mutant third arm from their foreheads, could touch the explosive Joel Zumaya.

The Yankees might have discovered a similar weapon in the powerful, wild Brian Bruney. It might take just one bad outing for Kyle Farnsworth, who personally pitched the Braves out of October last year, to find himself behind Bruney in the bullpen hierarchy. Scott Proctor stayed fresh despite the heaviest workload in the league. Given Detroit’s largely righthanded lineup, Myers and Ron Villone won’t be seen often in this series unless it’s to face Curtis Granderson, the most platoon-vulnerable of the Tigers.

PITCHING MATCH-UPS

Game 1: Nate Robertson vs. Chien-Ming Wang. The Tigers split with Wang in two starts, winning one in which he was uncharacteristically wild. With his sinker he allowed just 12 home runs this year, so he should be able to negate Detroit’s main weapon, their power.

Game 2: Justin Verlander vs. Mike Mussina. Mussina dominated the Tigers in his sole 2006 start. Verlander had a weak second half, claiming to be fatigued. The Yankees should be able to wear him down with their lefties.

Game 3: Randy Johnson vs. Kenny Rogers. Can Johnson overcome a herniated disc? Can Rogers overcome a history of choking in October?

Game 4 (in necessary): Jaret Wright vs. Jeremy Bonderman. Righties couldn’t hit the ball out against Wright this year, so he may be surprisingly competitive. Still, this is not an ideal matchup.

Game 5 (if necessary): Nate Robertson vs. Chien-Ming Wang. The smart money will be on Wang to live up to the pressure of a do or die start.


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