Loss of Kirilenko Leaves Jazz Singing the Blues

This article is from the archive of The New York Sun before the launch of its new website in 2022. The Sun has neither altered nor updated such articles but will seek to correct any errors, mis-categorizations or other problems introduced during transfer.

The New York Sun

Sometimes a player’s value is more evident by his absence than his presence. That’s certainly the case with Utah’s Andrei Kirilenko. While most NBA stars have talents that are readily evident, Kirilenko is one of the few players whose value only becomes obvious through statistical analysis.


The Jazz entered the season looking like contenders for a top-four seed in the West after winning 42 games a year ago and adding big men Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur in the offseason. It hasn’t turned out that way, and the Jazz are currently mired in a nine-game losing streak that’s dropped them to the second-worst record in the Western Conference.


Many factors have contributed to Utah’s demise. Guard Carlos Arroyo had a breakout campaign a year ago but has been a disaster in 2004-05. New rules against hand-checking have hurt the clutch-and-grab Jazz on defense. And coach Jerry Sloan has inexplicably kept Okur and Gordan Giricek, two of his best performers, out of the starting lineup.


But far and away, the biggest cause for this disappointing development is Kirilenko’s knee injury. The jack-of-all-trades forward sprained the MCL in his right knee in the 14th game, and his teammates have been completely unable to function since then. The Jazz are 3-19 without Kirilenko, dropping them from playoff position to the dregs of the league. Even the wins have been unimpressive – three home nail-biters by a combined total of nine points. Meanwhile, the losses have been ugly, with 11 coming by double figures.


Since he’s not a household name, some may wonder how Kirilenko’s absence could lead to such a calamity. After all, his modest 16.5 scoring average doesn’t scream out superstar, and he doesn’t possess the kind of killer crossover (or face, for that matter) that draws attention.


Kirilenko’s stardom lies in his being above average at virtually everything, a compendium of plusses that in the end makes him one of the league’s most valuable players. For starters, he generates his points with tremendous efficiency, which isn’t apparent from his ho-hum shooting percentage. Kirilenko averaged 6.4 free throws per game a year ago, a huge total for somebody who only took 12 field-goal attempts per game. He made 79% and also threw in a 3-pointer a game. Overall, he averaged 1.11 points per shot attempt, the sixth-best mark among power forwards. He’s also a good passer who picked up 3 assists per game from the frontcourt, and despite his scrawny frame he’s an effective rebounder, especially offensively.


But where Kirilenko really shines is at the defensive end. He isn’t the typical defensive intimidator, flying in from the weak side to send offerings into row seven. He’s just devastatingly effective.


Kirilenko is an expert at sneaking up on post players and blocking their shot from behind, which he is uniquely qualified to do because he may have the longest arms of any sub-7-footer. At the time of his injury, he led the NBA with 4.8 blocks per game, a rate which would have been the third-best mark in history had he kept it up. Unlike other shot-blockers, Kirilenko also uses his spaghetti arms at ground level, pokechecking balls away from dribblers like he’s Denis Potvin. As a result, in 2002-03 he became the first player since David Robinson in 1991-92 to finish in the NBA’s top five in both blocks and steals.


Not surprisingly, the Jazz particularly miss Kirilenko at the defensive end. When he’s on the floor, the Jazz allow 99.6 points per 48 minutes, but when he’s not, the figure balloons to 116.8. Similarly, opponents shoot 44.1% when Kirilenko plays, but improve to 52.1% when his Inspector Gadget arms are on the sidelines.


Kirilenko’s commendable play in so many facets of the game yielded a new statistical feat: The five-by-five. Just as a “triple-double” is when a player reaches 10 or more in three different categories (i.e., points, rebounds, and assists) in one game, the five-by-five is when he gets at least five in five different categories. It had been done once in the previous decade until Kirilenko pulled it off twice in one week last year. He had a near-miss at another before he was injured, putting up 24 points, six rebounds, five blocks, four assists, and four steals against Denver on November 8.


In short, Kirilenko is a bona fide superstar. My Player Efficiency Rating (PER), which rates every player by his statistical accomplishments, ranked Kirilenko eighth in the NBA last season with a mark of 22.7, putting him ahead of far bigger names like Yao Ming, Dirk Nowitzki, and Stephon Marbury. Before the knee injury, his 2004-05 PER was a stellar 23.7 (the league average is 15.0, while the NBA leader, Kevin Garnett, boasts a 30.2 mark).


The good news is that the Jazz expect Kirilenko to return in another two or three weeks, but by then it will be too late. Jerry Sloan’s charges are several games out of the final playoff spot in the West and face a brutal schedule ahead – their next nine opponents have winning records. It will be hard for them to make up such huge chunks of ground even with AK-47 back in the lineup.


Utah’s record will be about 12-27 when Kirilenko returns. If the team goes back to winning at their pre-injury pace (they were 8-5 at the time), then they’re looking at 38 or 39 wins, which has no chance of getting them into the postseason. Even if the Jazz won two-thirds of their games the rest of the way – an optimistic proposition given the club’s other warts – they would finish 41-41. While that record could be good enough to win the Atlantic Division, it won’t cut it in the West, where eight other teams might end up with 45 wins.


Kirilenko’s talents are both subtle and varied, which makes it harder for announcers to crow wildly about him throughout the game and easier for fans who just look at scoring averages to overlook his extraordinary contribution. But superstardom shouldn’t be conferred on the players with the highest Q rating, or even the highest scoring average. It should be reserved for those who make the greatest impact on their team’s results when they play. In Kirilenko’s case, it’s just unfortunate that it took his absence to make his greatness so abundantly clear.


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