The 131st Kentucky Derby has more speed in it than a rabbit farm. Quite a few of the 20 horses going to the gate on Saturday feel comfortable making the pace, and a strong second group likes to run close to the front. Unlike most speed horses, however, most of this year’s Derby field can stick it out. This won’t just be a fast race; this will be a race in which the speed is real, gutsy, and strong.

With that in mind, it’s quite possible that the outcome of Saturday’s big race will be settled before the first turn; it all hinges on which horses settle where. Yesterday’s draw, the last pixel of the picture representing the pre-Triple Crown season, is a great tool in figuring out how the Derby might unfold.

As Derby tradition dictates, the trainers drew early yesterday morning to decide the order in which they will choose their post positions. They look at trends and running styles, attempt to anticipate traffic patterns, and then each hangs a placard depicting his horse’s silks on a pretend starting gate.

The last post chosen yesterday was the far outside, which went to 20-1 Buzzards Bay. Although many trainers want the room afforded by a starting position in the auxiliary gate, the no. 20 post is a ton of ground to make up. With all the speed to Buzzards Bay’s left, it’s easy to imagine him getting stuck 6 or 7 paths wide coming into the first turn. The same logic goes for the no. 19 hole, which D. Wayne Lukas picked for Going Wild with the second-to-last choice.

Equally unpopular is the rail. Although the first slot is the winningest in Derby history, most of those triumphs were racked up in the old days, when there weren’t 20 horses going. Bob Baffert got stuck on the inside yesterday, having the 18th pick for Sort it Out.

Just as it is bad to have all that horse to your left, it is treacherous to have it all on the right of you. Every horse in the race is going to move in, and Sort it Out will get crushed against the rail if he doesn’t pop out of the gate like a cork from a bottle of champagne, or else hang back until the traffic clears. Baffert’s horse doesn’t have the early speed for the former, so the latter will have to be his play.

Third favorite Bandini, on the other hand, had the luck yesterday. Todd Pletcher won the first pick, and he slipped the best of his three horses into gate no. 16. To Bandini’s right is the favored Bellamy Road, and to his left is Wilko. One step further in is Spanish Chestnut.

This is where the frontrunners will emerge from. Wilko’s jockey, Corey Nakatani, will likely hold his horse back, leaving Bandini sandwiched between the two fastest out-of-the-gate horses in the race. That could be murder for Pletcher’s horse, especially if Bandini tries to burst out with Spanish Chestnut and Bellamy Road – and it’s hard to see how that can be avoided unless Bandini’s jockey, John Velazquez, has an unbelievable amount of control over his horse.

Afleet Alex, the second favorite in the morning line at 9-2, got slot no. 12. His trainer, Tim Ritchey, is at the Derby for the first time, and lucked into the second choice. After hanging Alex’s silks on the gate, he said that the horse would have “room to move around, maneuver.”

The quote of the day, though, came from Warren Stute, who was asked why he chose slot no. 9 for his horse, Greeley’s Galaxy: “I heard it was lucky,” the trainer said.

If no. 9 is lucky, then no. 3 could be doom for Sun King, one of five Nick Zito entries. The horse has not demonstrated that he has the early speed it would take to get out in front of that crush of horses. Nor has he demonstrated any ability to run in traffic this year. He managed to show in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after a rough trip from an inside post, but the two horses – Wilko and Afleet Alex – who were in front of him at the wire will be at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

The horse with the most favorable post is Andromeda’s Hero, Zito’s least-rated horse at 50-1. He’s a closer, and doesn’t need early pace to be in the race. His no. 2 position on the inside allows him to settle into a ground-saving inside trip behind all the speed without having to wend his way through traffic to the rail.

The positions of these horses will be pored over, and they will no doubt influence how the race is run. But it is telling that the Churchill Downs oddsmaker, Mike Battaglia, reportedly set his morning line before the draw, and didn’t change it afterwards.

THE KENTUCKY DERBY DRAW

The Kentucky Derby draw was held yesterday at Churchill Downs, with a full field of 20 3-year-olds entered for the 1 1/4 -mile race. Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia also released his morning line, installing George Steinbrenner’s horse, Wood Memorial winner Bellamy Road, as a 5-2 favorite. Bellamy Road’s trainer, Nick Zito, became just the second trainer in Derby history to enter five horses in one year. Afleet Alex was made the second favorite at 9-2.