Lukas Gambles With Azeri

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The New York Sun

“This is Texas. The Breeders’ Cup is kind of a ‘Texas Hold ‘Em,’ and we’re going all-in. We’re going to go in the Classic.”


With that display of sportsmanship and guts, trainer D. Wayne Lukas put Azeri in the $4 million Breeders’ Cup Classic to race against the best male horses in the world. She would have been the favorite in the Distaff; if she’d won it, she would have been in serious running for her third divisional title in as many years.


Running against the boys in the Classic, Azeri might sacrifice her championship. Or she might win Horse of the Year. She’s 6 years old, so maybe this is her last race. What a blaze of glory, what a way to end it.


I’ve been critical of Lukas’s management of this horse in the past, but this is great. This is the real thing, a real gamble on a real race. In Texas Hold ‘Em, the highest possible hand given the shared cards in the middle of the table is called the nuts. The question is: Is D. Wayne Lukas holding the nuts or not? Does he think it’s a lock? Is he bluffing?


Azeri starts from slot no. 3, and she’s going off at pretty good money: Mike Watchmaker of the Daily Racing Form has her at 12-1, and The National Thoroughbred Racing Association has posted odds on her at 15-1. If we’re anywhere near those odds come post time, I will bet with both hands. Azeri at anything over 10-1, maybe even 8-1, is incredible value. Horses that have won as much as she has should never go out with odds that high, no matter the competition. I don’t care if it’s a quarter horse sprint, a dog race, or Nascar: At 15-1 you take Azeri.


But that doesn’t mean Azeri can win the race. She has gone out against males only once before, finishing a dismal eighth out of nine in the Metropolitan Handicap in May. That Memorial Day race was not her cup of tea, that much was clear. She’s a two-turn horse, and that’s a one-turn race. She likes 1 1 /16 mile, and the Met is a mile. She’d never run against boys, and there they were.


The distance could be an issue in the Classic, as well. Her one try at 1 1 /4, on August 27 at Saratoga in the Personal Ensign, was not successful. In that race, Jerry Bailey sent Roar Emotion out front in what was the track equivalent of a sacrifice fly. Roar Emotion had no chance of winning that race, and Bailey decided to affect the outcome by jumping out and making the pace a grueling one. Azeri hung in behind Roar Emotion, while Storm Flag Flying rated behind them. When Storm Flag Flying came on, Azeri had nothing left. That she held on for second is remarkable.


After Azeri’s last out, in Keeneland’s 1 1 /8 mile Overbrook Spinster, run October 10, Pat Day said that she was one of the best horses he’d ever ridden. True, jockeys seem to have a “love the one your with” mentality when praising their mounts, but Azeri certainly romped in that race.


Azeri is not perfect for the Classic, but it’s worth remembering that she’s run races where she looked like some faster, more composed, invincible breed of super horse. She might do it this weekend, she might not.


Lukas has said that Azeri is “as good right now as human hands can make her, and we’re going to swing for the fences. She’s already won the Distaff. She’s the leading money-winner of all-time. We’ll step out of the box and see if we can do something that has never been done before.”


Michael Paulson wanted to send Azeri to the Classic in 2002, but then-trainer Laura de Seroux talked him out of it. Last year,Azeri was almost retired after some very bad works leading up to the Breeders’ Cup.


This year, they’re going to the show. I have no idea if she can beat Pleasantly Perfect, Ghostzapper, and Roses in May over a mile and a quarter, but I’m pretty sure she can beat the rest of them. And I know she’s better than 15-1, especially with her good post-position.


In the end, it doesn’t matter if she wins. It’s gambling. D. Wayne Lukas and Michael Paulson have demonstrated that they have the kind of guts that make for great horseracing. That, and 15-1: good enough.


The New York Sun

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