Who will be the bracket-buster this year?

That’s always a favorite question heading into the NCAA Tournament, and if you listen to most pundits, the answer lies somewhere in the Albuquerque region. Prognosticators place little faith in that region’s top seed, Washington, which finished second in a soft Pac-10. As a result, a host of other candidates – including 2004 runner-up Georgia Tech, 29-4 Louisville, perennial darling Gonzaga, and preseason no. 1 Wake Forest – have been mentioned as potential regional winners.

The opposite is true in the Chicago region, where top-seeded and top-ranked Illinois is an overwhelming favorite to make its first Final Four trip in over a decade. The Illini should benefit from home cooking, with two rounds in nearby Indianapolis and the regional final just a short bus ride away in Chicago. But they must be wary of second-seeded Oklahoma State, which went to the Final Four a year ago, and an athletic Alabama team that dumped top-seeded Stanford in last year’s tournament.

For the next couple weeks, the serious Final Four contenders need to survive an onslaught of Cinderella wannabes in the opening round. Let’s take a closer look at the first-round matchups in the Chicago and Albuquerque regions:

CHICAGO REGION

(1) ILLINOIS VS. (16) FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON
THURSDAY, 9:30 P.M., INDIANAPOLIS

Just when we thought there were no local teams to root for in the tournament, the Terrors from Teaneck are here to save the day. Now all the Knights have to do is beat the nation’s top-ranked team in what will be enemy territory. Tom Green’s FDU team has less chance of winning than “Freddy Got Fingered” at the Oscars.

(8) TEXAS VS. (9) NEVADA
THURSDAY, 7:10 P.M., INDIANAPOLIS

A Sweet 16 team last year, the Wolf Pack are led by 6-foot-11 WAC player of the year Nick Fazekas (21.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg). He and 6-foot-10 Kevin Pinckney (12.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg) could present problems inside for a fairly short Texas frontcourt that lost both starters during the course of the year. The Longhorns have a huge edge in quickness thanks to freshman blur Daniel Gibson (14.4 ppg, 4.1 apg). Pace is likely to dictate the winner – if it’s a track meet, the Longhorns should prevail; if it’s a half-court game, Texas is toast.

(5) ALABAMA VS. (12) WISC.-MILWAUKEE
THURSDAY, 12:25 P.M., CLEVELAND

A dangerous dark horse, UWM is led by sweet-shooting guard Ed McCants (17.5 ppg).The Panthers are an up-tempo team without a starter over 6-foot-7, so they’ll need to push the pedal to the floor to wear out the Crimson Tide. Alabama is vulnerable to that style, as it has virtually no bench behind a fantastic starting five led by NBA prospect Kennedy Winston (18.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg).

(4) BOSTON COLLEGE VS. (13) PENN
THURSDAY, 2:45 P.M., CLEVELAND

Due to its poor finish, Boston College is a popular pick to be an upset victim, but Penn may not be able to keep pace with the Eagles down low. Eagles forwards Craig Smith (17.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Jared Dudley (16.2 ppg, 7.6 rpg) are lethal in the paint, so look for Penn’s defense to sag in the lane and gamble that B.C. misses open jumpers. For the Quakers, Ivy League player of the year Tim Begley (13.7 ppg, 4.8 apg) needs to nail his 3-pointers to keep them in the game.

(6) LSU VS. (11) ALABAMA-BIRMINGHAM
THURSDAY, 9:40 P.M., BOISE

LSU has a devastating 1-2 punch in the middle with freshman center Glenn Davis (13.1 ppg) and SEC player of the year Brandon Bass (17.5 ppg, 8.8 rpg). The Tigers are about as deep as Jessica Simpson’s thoughts, however, which makes playing UAB a challenge. The Blazers play 10 men and run and press the whole game, so Tigers coach John Brady will need to manage his starters’ minutes to keep everybody fresh without overexposing his weak second unit.

(3) ARIZONA V. (14) UTAH STATE
THURSDAY, 7:20 P.M., BOISE

As I mentioned Monday, this game has upset written all over it. Arizona loves to run, so the Aggies’ challenge is to keep it a half-court game. If they can, Utah State’s size and accuracy, bolstered by a friendly crowd in nearby Boise, should win the day. The Aggies led the nation in field-goal percentage at 53.3%, with forward Spencer Nelson (16.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 61.5 FG%) leading the way. Speaking of shooting, Arizona’s Salim Stoudamire shot an amazing 52.7% on 3-pointers, so the Aggies need to limit his open looks.

(7) S. ILLINOIS VS. (10) ST. MARY’S
FRIDAY, 2:50 P.M., OKLAHOMA CITY

This one’s a tough match-up for St. Mary’s because they’re weak in the ball handling department and will face the Salukis’ constant defensive pressure. If they can break the pressure, the Gaels’ 3-point shooters should have a field day – top scorers Daniel Kickert (16.6 ppg) and Paul Marigney (17.0 ppg) both shoot 48% from downtown. SIU’s Darren Brooks (14.7 ppg, 2.7 spg) is a catalyst at both ends, winning both Missouri Valley conference player of the year and defensive player of the year.

(2) OKLAHOMA STATE VS. (15) SE LOUISIANA
FRIDAY, 12:30 P.M., OKLAHOMA CITY

SE Louisiana is a defense-oriented team with virtually no outside shooting, but the Lions are athletic enough to hang with Oklahoma State. Additionally, their lack of size won’t be as big a problem against the smallish Cowboys as it is against some other teams. The Cowboys, though, have a huge edge in shooting skill and present a match-up problem with multi-talented forward Joey Graham, so OSU should breeze into the second round.

ALBUQUERQUE REGION

(1) WASHINGTON VS. (16) MONTANA
THURSDAY, 3 P.M., BOISE

The Huskies may not have deserved a no. 1 seed, but they’re certainly entertaining. Five-foot-9 firecracker Nate Robinson (16.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg) turbochargers an offense that averaged 86.7 points per game, while forward Tre Simmons (16.7 ppg) has blossomed as an all-around scorer. They shouldn’t face much of a test against a slow-footed Montana team that won a very weak Big Sky conference.

(8) PACIFIC V. (9) PITTSBURGH
THURSDAY, 12:40 P.M., BOISE

This is perhaps the first round’s most interesting pairing, with the added bonus that Pacific’s roster will leave the CBS announcers tongue-tied. The Tigers’ international-heavy lineup includes forward Guillaume Yango and wings Marko Milhailovic and Jasko Korajkic. Take that, Verne Lundquist.

Pitt is a physical team that plays suffocating defense, led by wing Chevon Troutman (15.3 ppg) and guard Carl Krauser (15.5 ppg). But the key is the production of sophomore center Chris Taft (13.4 ppg). He might be the most talented big man in the country, but he takes too many plays off and the Panthers don’t get him enough touches on offense. He should dominate in this one – but who knows if he will.

(4) LOUISVILLE VS. (13) LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
FRIDAY, 7:10 P.M., NASHVILLE

The Ragin’ Cajuns are running into a buzzsaw against Louisville. Louisiana-Lafayette likes to run and shoot threes, but that’s just playing into the Cardinals’ hands. Louisville loves a fast tempo and made nearly 10 3-pointers a game, led by stick-figure forward Francisco Garcia (15.3 ppg, 4.0 apg) and guard Larry O’Bannon (15.1 ppg). Rick Pitino’s team will have to contain the Cajuns’ Tiras Wade (20.4 ppg), a speedy wingman and reigning Sun Belt player of the year.

(5) GEORGIA TECH V. (12) G. WASHINGTON
FRIDAY, 9:30 P.M., NASHVILLE

After falling short in the finals last year, Georgia Tech coped with injuries all season but is mostly healthy entering the NCAAs, making it a darkhorse to return to the Final Four. The Yellowjackets win with defense, holding opponents to 38% shooting on the season.

Offensively, they’re led by guards Jarrett Jack (15.9 ppg) and B.J. Elder (13.4 ppg), but they have a thin bench and only one decent frontcourt player, Luke Schensher. The 7-foot Aussie may struggle against G.W.’s athletic big man, Pops Mensah-Bonsu (12.4 ppg, 6.6 rpg), and the Colonials have a size advantage overall, but G.W.’s perimeter players seem overmatched in this one.

(6) TEXAS TECH V. (11) UCLA
THURSDAY, 9:45 P.M., TUCSON

Bobby Knight’s squad is small but defends and finds the open man, so the Red Raiders punch above their weight. Guards Ronald Ross (16.6 ppg, 5.1 rpg) and Jarrious Jackson (14.6 ppg) will have to carry the load against an UCLA team with more talent but far less experience. The Bruins start three freshmen, including point guard Jordan Farmar (13.5 ppg, 5.3 apg), but their star is senior forward Dijon Thompson (18.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg). For UCLA, this game looks like a dress rehearsal for a bigger push next year.

(3) GONZAGA V. (14) WINTHROP
THURSDAY, 7:25 P.M., TUCSON

A prolific offensive team, the Bulldogs have an outstanding 3-point shooter in Derrick Raivio (13.4 ppg), a great mid-range shooter in forward Adam Morrison (17.9 ppg), and a magnifique post weapon in French center Ronny Turiaf (16.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg). Don’t overlook Winthrop, though. The Eagles have won 18 straight games thanks to their quickness and tough defense. They’ll start three sophomores and a freshman, however, so experience could win the day.

(7) WEST VIRGINIA V. (10) CREIGHTON
THURSDAY, 9:30 P.M., CLEVELAND

Prepare for some 3-pointers in this battle of mirror images. The Mountaineers and Bluejays both dig the long ball, so the paint might not get much. West Virginia rallied to the Big East tournament final behind the shooting of center Kevin Pittsnogle (10.6 ppg) and forward Mike Gansey (10.8 ppg), and it has a deep supply of shooters coming off the bench.

Creighton enters the tournament on an eight-game win streak, with guard Nate Funk (17.6 ppg, 5.0 rpg) leading the way. Like West Virginia, the Missouri Valley champs aren’t big but can go very deep on the bench.

(2) WAKE FOREST VS. (15) CHATTANOOGA
THURSDAY, 7:10 P.M., CLEVELAND

Wake Forest is a popular pick to win this region thanks to a high-octane offense, but the Deacons don’t always practice what the coach preaches at the defensive end. Sophomore point guard Chris Paul (14.6 ppg, 6.6 apg) has NBA scouts drooling with his playmaking, with wings Justin Gray (16.3 ppg) and Eric Williams (16.0 ppg) the prime beneficiaries. Led by center Mindaugas Katelynas (12.0 ppg, 9.1 rpg), Chattanooga is an outstanding rebounding team that choo-chooed to the Sweet 16 in 1997 as a no. 14 seed. The Mocs won’t be going back this year.

Mr. Hollinger will break down the other half of the bracket tomorrow.