How soon is too soon to sound the alarms? One week into the season, that’s the question facing the Grizzlies and Nuggets, two teams that thought they would move into the upper echelon of the Western Conference this season but instead find themselves down in the doldrums.

Let’s start in Memphis, where the blues are no longer confined to musicians. The Grizzlies were a surprising 51-win team a year ago and figured to have enough youth and depth to build on those gains this season. Additionally, conventional wisdom said their 10-deep lineup made them unlikely to be victimized by injuries. But they began the year 0-4 before beating the Lakers last night.

The season opener against Washington set the tone. Opening their gleaming new FedEx Forum against an opponent whose best players were either injured or suspended, the Grizzlies somehow managed to get steamrolled 32-11 in the third quarter en route to a dispiriting 102-91 loss. They’ve followed that up with three straight uninspiring defeats.

The problem stems from the fact that three key players from last year’s surprising campaign have had terrible starts in 2004-05. James Posey, who nearly won the Most Improved Player award a year ago, has been awful while battling a sprained foot this season. Through four games, he’s averaging a paltry 3.7 points after pumping in nearly 14 last season.

At point guard, the Grizzlies have had similar misfortunes. For the first time in his life, Jason Williams played under control last year, but he’s struggled mightily in the new season. He’s averaging a meager four assists a game – a far cry from last season’s 6.8 – and is mired at 32.3% from the field. Worse, he continues to launch 3-pointers with abandon, despite hitting just 27.8%. Williams also had a shouting match with head coach Hubie Brown during a timeout last week, a dangerous sign on a team for which locker-room harmony spelled success in 2003-04.

But the Grizzlies’ Achilles heel has always been in the paint. Even during its 51-win campaign, the team repeatedly was victimized on the boards. That was okay as long as the Grizzlies made their opponents pay by forcing turnovers and getting points from their undersized big men, but neither is happening this year. Center Lorenzen Wright has been AWOL thus far, matching Posey’s microscopic 3.7 ppg output but lacking the sprained foot for an excuse.

Two wrongs back up Wright. The first, Jake Tsakilidis, is a 7-foot-2-inch Frankensteinian project who struggles in the Grizzlies’ open-court game and is less effective on the glass than his size suggests. Thus, high-flying Stromile Swift has been forced into prolonged duty in the middle. He has been his usual productive self at the offensive end (he’s second on the team with 14.5 pppg), but at 6 feet, 9 inches and just 225 pounds, he’s easily pushed around by opposing big men.

The Grizzlies aren’t completely without hope, of course. When healthy, Posey is an energetic defender who forces turnovers by the bushel, a strategy that masks the team’s deficiencies on the interior. Additionally, the Grizzlies have played three quality opponents in their losses since the Washington debacle, including two tight setbacks against Houston. If they survive November, they can nurse themselves back into playoff contention during a December stretch of 10 straight games against Eastern Conference foes.

While Memphis’s 0-4 start has the locals concerned, fans of the 1-4 Nuggets are already talking Armageddon. All four losses have been by double digits, including Tuesday’s inexcusable 108-88 beating by the lowly Sonics on home court.

Denver’s troubles stem from three causes, only one of which is reversible. The first and most easily changed is Carmelo Anthony, who still seems to be suffering a hangover from his struggles in Athens. Anthony has forced shots, made bad decisions, and generally regressed from his brilliant play of a year ago. He’s shooting just 31.3% from the floor, and is committing nearly four turnovers a game. With results like that from the key offensive players, it’s tough for the Nuggets to win.

Anthony’s struggles can be changed if he just relaxes and lets the game come to him. The same cannot be said for the gaping hole at shooting guard caused by Voshon Lenard’s torn Achilles tendon on opening night. Lenard fills two roles for the Nuggets – he’s their only natural shooting guard and the only consistent 3-point threat. Lenard’s replacements have been offensive wallflowers Greg Buckner and DerMarr Johnson, which allows opposing teams to pack extra defenders in the lane to stop Anthony and Kenyon Martin.

Nuggets General Manager Kiki Vandeweghe is working hard to fill this hole, using his surplus of forwards as bait while he explores every possible trade option. But even if he finds a replacement at guard, the Nuggets’ foremost problem remains: They have a lame-duck coach, and the squad won’t play hard for him.

Pencil-necked Jeff Bzdelik is on a one-year deal despite leading the Nuggets to a surprise playoff appearance last season, and rumor has it that assistant Michael Cooper has already been annointed as the replacement. It’s hard to fathom why the Nuggets are bothering to maintain the charade. As the Nets learned a year ago with Byron Scott, keeping a lame-duck coach never, ever works.

It’s unfortunate for Bzdelik, who has done a great job in his two-plus years in Denver and deserves better than to have his front office so openly undermining him. But the fact is that the Nuggets have no chance of regaining their swagger until they pull the plug. Denver pretty clearly has been mailing it in on defense, ranking 25th in opponents’ field-goal percentage (47.8%) despite a wealth of defensive talent in the frontcourt. They can’t compete in the West with that kind of effort.

Western playoff hopefuls like the Sonics, Suns, and Lakers have to be excited by how the Nuggets and Grizzlies have staggered out of the gate. It could potentially open up two spots in what had figured to be a rock-solid top eight in the West. Memphis can still get back in the picture if a few key players begin performing up to their career norms and James Posey gets healthy. For Denver, however, the prognosis is much more serious.

One doesn’t want to overstate the importance of events in the first week of a six-month season, but early games do set the tone. In the Grizzlies’ case, some patience is appropriate. But for Denver, the question isn’t whether to sound the alarm bells. It’s whether they can get their season under control before it turns into a four-alarm inferno.